Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
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It's an excellent setup that means almost all project are progressing, rather than one at a time.
By all accounts, the teams engaged are highly rated professionals. Bodes well IMO.
Most of these outsource suppliers get fully paid when contracts complete. So they won't be hanging around, especially so as copper exploration moves into a purple patch right now.
Just one project coming off will move this significantly IMO.
Looking across the various projects Jez, it would appear any news from the company in relation to progress or planning is at the mercy of the timescales of various independent consultants.
Appear to have outsourced technical studies with the exception of the Western Foreland licenses to concentrate all their manpower on. News from here next, could be the only one they have actual control over.
BR may have 3 different consultancies working on the optimisation, maybe a fourth later if they do more drilling.
Optimal mining, Lycopodium who are processing experts and, likely an alternative pre concentration tech being trialled. So could literally be next week or another 6 or 9 months.
Silverking data has been referred to an external geophysical consultants only last month to refine targets for follow up drilling. Could be some time before any action plan is announced.
Kakuyu parked up for now as warrants major exploration??
Hi Andrew
You may well be right. I am of the understanding, an eventual valuation will be on the projects NPV, using current or hopefully updated mining scenarios including being based on a smaller mill and plant with copper prices ranging across all scenarios from 8-11k. These ‘will be’ the copper pricing ranges used that NPV will be determined from, and eventual valuation will be based on, not 12-15k!
However, my only reservation is that the economic model being only supported at conceptual level when complete, the economic model will not be robust enough to use a discounted cash flow model across the projected LOM.
Away from Valmin code and on global market, a DCF model can usually be used toward a higher valuation than one determined by Valmin. But have a feeling it needs to be supported at pre feasibility for DCF to be used. Need to look into it a bit more. Still early days.
News could be any day now..
It's very unlikely but you can't rule it out
Col:
"Eyup Ben 'Owell , arv bowt a shovel, let's get diggin' lad"
Ntm agree this certainly isn’t a sprint but every month cash burns so a wiggle on would be good for SP.
Put option?
At least if SP dips can load up sub 1 - it’s catatonic here
O and W
Difference is though we dont know what is under the ground at Zambia. Could be the jackpot or could be nothing and worthless.
Apparently BR is the 10th biggest copper discovery in last 10 years. But unfortunately worthless at current POC .
Best to think of BR as an out of the money long-dated call option.
Surely the main action here will be drilling in Zambia. I just have no idea when it will start, despite the ending of the rainy season.
"Copper spot price is not going to have a direct effect on a valuation for BR"
Sorry HZ dont agree
There are obviously other factors that will determine sale price such as capex and opex (as you have said).
I stand by my view that IF POC was $2K to £3K higher ie $14K not $12K then we would get a significant higher sale price (IMHO of circa double). Albeit nothing like some valuations
I'm not saying that is the sole factor, but would be a significant driver to any valuation. That's why BR's valuation now is Zero.
Like that one Mr Bal !
very apt .. and Mr Colin Bird himself might well be all for noting to shareholders : 'it's not a sprint, it's a marathon'
Or a very very old snickers bar with “marathon” on the front occurs you me
Shame NTM
I can only assume £0.5m is better spent on other projects.
I say assume cos bored members not giving market any update ⁉️
100% agree Ben 'Owell.. logging in once a week maybe instead though :-)
100 % AGREE Cruella, but it likely won't happen, alas..
even a half a million quid invested in such here would do wonders around now.. as this is/has been epically illiquid for a long time now..
Michu, surely a role in the Xtract board is one of the easiest around? Log on once a day to check work emails. Nothing happening so log off Teams and log into lse as Old School View. Type some drivel about Colin knowing what he's doing, trust in the BOD etc. Done and dusted before lunch. Down the snooker hall for a jug of whatevers on tap and 3 hours of cue sports. (Driving range or 9 holes also an option). 60k per annum.
Probably a from multi bar pack / not for individual redistribution typed on too :-)
Ladies and Gentlemen, I give you the one and only Mr Colin Bird
Hey NTM
DON'T You think it's HIGH time XTR announces a hefty share buy back. That would increase return for shareholders when assets get sold ❓
Yours cruelly 👿
Basr of Snickers had a sell by date of 18 months ago ;)
How about just the bar of Snickers?
Mr Bird might even invite you on the inside with an Operation Rampathon post like that , in fairness Mr Ben' Owell :-)
What we do indeed really need is for Mr Bird himself to lead Operation Rampathon forward around now, please
Double the happy tablets from May 1st, and tell us us a great Xtrract(ion) story or three please, Mr Colin Bird
"I would take 5p and a bar of snickers at this rate."
So would I, because realistically that's more likely.
Michu, this is all part of Operation Rampathon aka attract new investors to the table. I believe Jez signed up for this a few weeks back. You laughing at my suggestions completely undermines my efforts ;)
It would help if Colin decided to actually undertake some exploring IE. earn his wages.
I hope AA's PDF of historic drilling data has kept him busy for the past 6 months.
I would take 5p and a bar of snickers at this rate.
''I for one would prefer the bow wrapped before Christmas 2024, ideally at 10,500/tonne and 100-150m rather than Christmas 2026 and 200-250m.''
That made me laugh out loud.
All I can offer back to that is, April 1st was nearly 4 weeks ago now.
Listen to Mr Zap for starters, please guys.
Taking the 'happy' tablets in your - or 'his' even - 70's and 80's is one thing, but Ben 'Owell could be a youngish man in my mind... and the long term consequences from starting taking the happy tablets from a much younger age might be significant :-)
Copper spot price is not going to have a direct effect on a valuation for BR so it wouldn’t matter whether was sustained above 11k or 12k or whatever price. Is more likely a conservative estimate of 10-10.5k will be used for LOM.
Capital and Op costs however will, as they come down with an improving economic climate and optimisation. These will directly affect the NPV ongoing.
Nothing will happen until the fully updated conceptual study is complete which may include an updated JORC if they decide to increase the resource to the NW toward improving the economic performance of the financial model. They will want to include every bit of defined resource in the JORC as this is what anyone will pay for on top of the projects NPV.
Jez
You are not missing anything with your SP calculation.
But as I said I dont think we will be getting anything like £150M. If that buy out was correct then by waiting another year or so you would have all your house paid for and have thousands of pounds extra :)
But we wont be getting anything like that offer (IMHO) so its moot point. My thinking is £25M with a circa £50M IF we waited a year or so.
Andrew4444
"My concern is that we get 3p for BR but if we had waited another 12 to 18 months it would have been double that."
What am I missing here ?
If 1p is an M/cap of 8.56m, £150m would be 17.5p wouldn't it ?
That's 2/3 of a house for me. personally I'd vote yes.