Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
No I’m not a ‘paid’ basher Dani, It is an absurd suggestion I might even get 5p a word too. We had already established that the agreement is, If I get to 2million words, (they have to be ‘joined up’ words btw) or I make a decision to mime, Colin said he will let me have the use of his old office swivel chair!
Hi Eastern every single poster has their own agenda, I suppose I am no different! but be assured I always try to post objectively, and always try to support with some reasoning behind.
It’s posts like that from Andrew that shows the underlying confidence there is from the gaffer that drives me to keep digging and continue to try to “second guess what the company are trying to do.” Having a healthy interest in the whole BR story helps too.
CB clearly is overly optimistic and is deliberately deceptive at times, but these are his buys in the open market since Bushranger drilling started:
Jan 23 1.78 GBX 1, 250,000 £22K APPROX
Aug-21 3.50 GBX 2,054,700 £72K
Apr- 21 5.70 GBX 1,000,000 £57K
Feb-21 5.84 GBX 1,000,000 £58k
Total £209K invested of his own money in the open market. Most buys at significantly higher price than current SP so he is significantly under water.
So even he must have thought that some of what he was saying was truthful !
Never know, in 18 months we may find it was :)
I would like to thank Howezap for his contribution and knowledge. Every question I have asked he has answered in a balanced manner. Yes, he is optimistic about this company but that optimism is not exactly widely shared. I have lost my trust in CB. Every recent step he has taken has resulted in a further drop in value, perhaps exacerbated by his interviews. However, I am actually reassured by Howezap's assessments. Maybe they should do a job swop for the month ? Dubai v East Midlands.
Ta NtM although I feel sometimes I just annoy people, but if something seems to fit, then I’ll put two and two together.
If he was me, and he was quoting on here, who is he?
"I wouldn't say I was in the top ten posters. But I was in the top one.”
“We discuss it for 20 minutes and then we decide I was right”
“I’m a little bit of an idealist, I do believe in fairies, and that is my outlook.”
Ok here’s the giveaway,
“The River Trent is lovely, I know because I have walked on it for 18 years”
On reflection, I'm feeling bad about - my kinda recent - line(s) on .5p per per word as minimum legal tender re Howzap being paid for posting here... etc..
My recalibrated thinking is that Howezap should more reasonably be categorised as a top 10 poster on this BB .. so apols to him fo that.
And, more generally, I feel compelled to go back to the thought that I've offered before here.. and readily offer again now: this BB is, in the round, an excellent BB .. and long may the level of quality generally posted on this BB continue (please)
(I'm confident it will, not least because this s/p has many holders here under the gun tro one extent or other .. and still the quality, balance and lack of pettiness persists.. )
Hi lucky, thanks for, and from your posting
>>Although the primary incentive for these installations is increased plant capacity and reduced capital and operating costs, bene®ts are also realized for waste management.<<
We would then assume that new scenarios will be formulated showing initial mine lives between 10-20 years. If there is a solid case at BR for increasing plant capacity with the appropriate technology if is suitable. As well as reduced tpa plant and 20-25 year mines and whatever else is in between.
Another serious consideration as to why modern ore sorting tech is being assessed is if AA are to be interested, in taking BR on it is a ‘necessity’ anyway, to have the ‘concentration study’ in place, showing potential to use the technology, as will need to satisfy their own ‘ambitious’ Sustainable Mining Plan targets of a 30% improvement in energy efficiency and a 50% reduction in fresh water abstraction by 2030.
There is probably not a mine in operation that doesn’t employ some form of ore sorting or another.
It is a given that whoever buys it ‘will’ utilise ‘modern’ bulk ore sorting.
Indeed howzap, I'm not trying to be accurate.....I'm just pointing the horses in the vague direction of some water ;).
As much as 50% less of the 20% discount ;-)
It would be safe to say the company still intend is to sell on BR. The hurdle being the buy back agreement with AA. What is required is to put a package together ‘with just enough,’ that triggers the buy back for AA to make a decision.
It would be counter intuitive to think that the company would have to show they are heading toward 100% funding to develop BR. A junior, getting up to a billion to finance a project! No never.
My understanding is that they would need to show a capability to fund their 20% that is relative to terms of the agreement. The importance of NPV and an IRR to show viability is of course essential toward that.
Generally, once an NPV is known, unless a company with an intent to mine it, already has the financing in place to take the project into the development stage some of that NPV will be given away in either huge dilution, or to a partner to achieve that. Where Xtract have a sell on, there will be a further 20% discount to the acquirer, on top of the discounted cash flow that takes into account the cost to build the mine basically. Colin mentioned in an old podcast whilst discussing how if would be valued if it went to third party valuation.
So if xtract can improve NPV/IRR whilst also lowering CapEx with reduced capacity plant, that further discount could be as much as 10% less, toward a higher valuation if AA decide to take on the project.
I don't know how old this is, bit shows on this mines pre feasibility.....around 50% reduction in Capex and 44% in opex!!
... More recently, AMT have elected to install dense media separation for pre-concentration at its Copper Creek project near San Manuel, Arizona. Crushing to À13 mm followed by DMS will reject 75±80% of the feed while maintaining copper recoveries of 93±95% [15]. Although the primary incentive for these installations is increased plant capacity and reduced capital and operating costs, bene®ts are also realized for waste management.
... The main incentive for pre-concentration is economic. For the AMT Copper Creek Project in Arizona, a pre-feasibility study estimated capital costs were more than 50% lower with dense media separation than using direct flotation and operating costs were 44% lower (McCulloch et al, 1999). For the McKinnon Creek deposit in British Columbia, pre-concentration significantly improved the economic viability of the project, due to the reduced waste disposal costs and lower transport costs as preconcentrated ore was to be transported to an existing processing facility some distance from the mine (Trafford, 1998a(Trafford, , 1998b. ...
Recent laboratory bench scale and pilot plant metallurgical tests at Mountain States R and D International have demonstrated that some copper ores because of relatively co**** copper sulfide mineralization can be preconcentrated by heavy media separation (HMS). In tests with a copper ore from the AMT Copper Creek project near San Manuel, Arizona, HMS preconcentration rejected about 75 to 80 percent of the feed as a minus 13 mm gravel. The HMS concentrates copper recoveries were about 93 to 95 percent. With the incorporation of HMS preconcentration, significant capital and operating costs savings have been projected for the proposed AMT Copper Creek concentrator. An overview of the HMS preconcentration step development for the AMT Copper Creek project is presented. Also presented are other potential applications of HMS preconcentration for copper ore processing
Hopefully he's not planning on using the Forest new player numbers in last summer as his benchmark for the drill 'oles numbers he feels he needs down the Bush(ranger) this time round to crack the Ascot etc code :-)
For someone who was reticent about using twitter as a way of comms, CB seems to have taken to it now.
He's now doing what many do and sharing his views on matters not just related to his core activity. Now its about Notts Forest !
I wonder if this is the part of his new tactic - deny and deflect :)
Next AGM: Forget xtract SP - did you see the football last week ?? :)
Surprised price hasn't dropped 10% today with those trades, huge £6 sell but only a £5 buy.
Wonder if we might get a rise next week, the drop doesn't seem to be getting the MM any business.
Lowest daily volume in a long time......
Not often get to lunch time with zero trades. Lets hope for some positive news next week and a few up days...
HZ
>>These techniques are designed to give economic advantage, to primarily drive down energy consumption per ton of ore with smaller plant and to save on water and chemical usage.
The cutoff grade is the grade at which the cost of mining and processing the ore is equal to the desired selling price of the commodity extracted from the ore.
So basically, the extra recoverable copper ‘is’ a result of a lower cut off grade due to the increased economics which lowers the cost to process the ore and not necessarily directly from any advantages that a higher head grade has making extraction more efficient. Duh!
The lower the grade the higher the cost to extract the minerals.
So, it’s not the technology that allows recovery at lower cut off but the increased economic benefit it produces ‘allowing’ the economic extraction of the lower or marginal grade ore without displacing any of the higher grade, which in itself is a resulting benefit that the technology improves with better mill feed.
Hi Howezap
Yes add back, the initial conceptual model Revenue would have been after the recovery factor, so my logic was to apply 90% to this amount to reduce it for ore concentrating and then add a little back for a better recovery factor (taking the 87% from yesterdays RNS as the starting point). I’m making very high level assumptions which might prove to be pie in the sky but it certainly demonstrates the potential impact on the economics if this ore concentration works how I understand it.
Cheers
James
less than 50k total trades today... lowest for some time I believe ?
I won't tempt fate and say "at least the selling has stopped" :)
Thank you James for the number crunching on the 71mt study.
>>We lose some of the metals due to concentrator but gain a little in the recovery process which is my understanding of how this works)
Yes I agree James, but on the understanding I hope you meant, “but gain a little back, in the recovery process.”
A cleaner crush, although supporting more efficiency from the processing, surely could not then make up for its initial losses from the bulk ore sorting in terms of end copper content?
The 10-15% losses from ore sorting would need to be returned and further gains from the processing losses would need to be made too, All from the increased efficiency of the processing stage to retrieve more copper including lower grades that would upgrade the JORC as CB implied at the end of the podcast with the roasties.
These techniques are designed to give economic advantage, to primarily drive down energy consumption per ton of ore with smaller plant and to save on water and chemical usage.
It’s a really interesting subject and one that I hope I am wrong and Colin is not just being Colin again!
What are others understanding?
Mattyshy. In a word yes. There is a lot of platinum ounces but they are deep and at current platinum prices uneconomic. In fairness to Colin, no-one could have forseen dieselgate. But like BR, a painful experience which this time around l had hoped to avoid .......
The very obvious mechanism of showing serious - and bottom line - progress here is Fairbride ' Ard rock revenue.. it should already be increasing punchily month on month for a few months now.. and should be within a few months of getting to approx 250k + gbp nett to xtr revenue .. and that - and maybe more on top of that - be sustainable for years therafter.. that would be very meaningful progress indeed for a company the size of xtr !
( the fact that revenue will likely be spent for many months to come on Bushranger is what it is, but, in the round, still makes sense to me.. and spending all of it - nett of xtr salaries/admin etc - might well be to the extent of max. 2m gbp over the remaining 10 months ish of 2022.. which is enough, frankly, for a company the size of xtr to be spending on Bushranger, especially that on top of 8m gbp ish ? already spent there )