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You mentioning Yorkville made me shudder Little wing. Please don't use such a word here again :-)
Fine post Andrew and 'can we believe everything he says all the time' made me laugh: NO, CATEGORICALLY (IMHO) At this stage, some would even say 'can be believe anything he says any of the time'.. but not me, in fairness.. as I actually have a good feeling about him and xtr for 2020. And at a few million market cap there is large room for upside if he/they deliver anything like they could in anything like the latest timeframes he offers.
(PS; If Amerisur sell out completes soon - and it should - and this is still under 1p, I'll meaningfully top up here.)
NtM
I don't think I've ever seen Dragon Slayer / Spaceman make a negative post about Xtract! Every RNS he seems to say how pleased he is with the news . Whatever it is. I think if the co went bust tomorrow he would find a way of saying its actually good news! Its a real shame he is so delusional and closed minded as he has been in this a long time, does have a lot of background knowledge and could make a meaningful contribution to analysis and discussion. But when anyone keeps saying the same thing over and over again, irrespective of the news flow and events, you quickly realise they offer nothing. A lot of what he says is non sequitur.
I suspect the sp is down due to 2 things. 1. Trust issues with CB (again) due to very poor prod figures against an implication of reasonable or good results. Can we believe everything he says all the time? 2. The 6 month timescale he mentioned in the pod cast. Many may think, for good reason Cb's 6 months could be longer so a few may decide to sell now and make a quick buck somewhere else and come back later.
That approach may be wrong as we may get some good news quicker than some think, before xmas. I guess if anyone believes all will be fine next year then buying at this price would not be a bad idea. But sp may of course go down further before we get any more good news. I think the news of additional management is very good news as this, to me anyway, means CB really does think prospects are good (actions not just words) so he is getting ready for the uplift in production and planning.
Alternatively I'm just being delusional, and turning into Dragon Slayer :)
NtM… lets hope the new management don't get tempted with the likes of Yorkville.
ps this s/p fall is somewhat surprising to me but not very. There are many who distrust CB hugely and they could make a fine case as to why imho. And I'm all for CB bringing in new management here.. this needs real focus now imho.. and has a decent chance with that, I think/hope. DYOR of course
I used post on II before here and Dragon Slayer seemed to be the chairman of the Welsh Branch of the Xtr cult club. And only member too I'd guess, in fairness to the Welsh. IMHO he may have suffered multiple lightening strikes over his many years of cycling his bike up and down the hills and valleys of Wales. Indeed he made Caveat Emptor in his uber bullish days here - while the s/p fell off cliff after cliff - look balanced. Both were extraordinarily wrong for so long but hopefully will be somewhat right in the end ( many have been so meullered here over the years that even 5p would be a pyrrhic victory in the end, sadly ) And in fairness to CE he has become somewhat more balanced recently.. I haven't read DS on II in a year or two years now.
Andrew... yes he does need to keep posting especially his endless future visions of exactly which area of alluvials are being targeted. Wasn't it supposed to have been the chicken farm or something which was supposed to have given us the best Q to date ? Silly Sausage.
LW
The alternative view is that new and additional management team could expedite income generation and therefore the rerate? I've often thought CB spreads himself too thinly over his many companies. Tbh I'm not too bothered about short term fluctuations. Anyone buying now has a very good chance of being in profit in 12 months time. AIMHO
I've just seen Dragon Slayer / spaceman's post on other BB. What a star! He's recently accused me of having many user names and being a MM by misinterpreting my posts and being selective of what I said. Apparently I may be trying to get the sp down so CB can fill a buy order!
I hope he doesnt stop posting. he' s comedy gold :)
90% down here at 8p AVG sale story . Going to ton0,55p again ? Or 0.27-0.30p ?
A few trading tranches must be underwater again... but at least one "exiled from lse" trader is putting a brave face on things. According to that trader the SP is permanently depressed due to shorts rather than non delivery of shareholder value hey ho.
Andrew... Any real profit we were hoping to see in the short to medium term will now be going towards the increased overhead of the new management positions hence delaying any rerate. I was hoping the alluvials whilst not being a game changer would have contributed enough to see us at least break even as Bird brings in new people.
Maybe so, but for now the downward trend may continue as some have waited long enough only to see more negative news and an ever dropping share price. I am sure alot of people will sell now with a look to buy back in at a lower SP.
I see another 550,000 sell just went through at 91.2 :-0
LW
I understand your scepticism.
As I've said before CB gives aspirations rather then realistic forecasts (IMHO) so I wont be too confident about his income figures for FB and copper play actually happening as stated - or timescales. What did he say a few months ago, $800K to $1m a month by end of 2020.
That said, with so much going on and with so many potential revenue streams I would be very surprised if income is not substantially higher this time next year (not difficult) and therefore the sp substantially higher. Even at a fraction of his predicted income levels the sp will rerate.
It probably wont happen in the time scales or figures as implied or stated by CB but I think the rerate will happen.
My concern is that Bird's guidance regarding hard rock will follow the pattern of that given regarding the alluvials. The SP is where it is because the market puts a big same old stamp on anything he says. AIM SP is basically all about future prospects but Bird's previous means we are not seeing anything for our prospects. It is worrying that Bird talks about his disappointment if the SP is at these levels this time next year.... maybe that is good guidance for once.
Same old BS from Bird on Vox....
****************************/articles/wey-education-zoetic-international-xtract-resources-and-alan-green-3538edf
Apperently' he'll be 'very dissapointed if the share price is this low this time next year' No **** Bird....Stop BSing us then and restore some faith!
o/
I hope the reason for the bad quarter is they have spent extra time moving the overburden to expose better ground for this quarter. But Colin should have learnt by now not to raise expectations, I am surprised he repeated himself.
Andrew, exactly hit the nail on the head. I was drawn in by CBs comments in the last RNs and was expecting the best results to date. I will not fall for it this quarter.
I hope you are right and we get some hard rock news soon and hopefully some young hungry blood in control!!
Alluvial income is irrelevant to the company rerate so these figures should not have produced a flicker in the sp. I suspect the reason why the sp went down was not due to fundamentals now being worse - they obviously are not, but because of disappointment that expectations were not being met. When CB said the first month of Q3 was the second best ever month, it was not unreasonable to extrapolate that month and think that Q3 would be at least reasonable and at best very good. So to find out that Q3 was the worst ever against production figures is obviously going to be disappointing.
CB has yet again given a hint at expectations for Q4 by stating 15kg for the first month. If he just said nothing prior to the results then I doubt the sp would have moved against these figures.
Its frustrating as the future of the co look good and the alluvial income is not relevant to any rerate so the disappointment is against his implied results not against the fundamentals.
I agree that it looks like a new CEO is going to be appointed. Good move. CB is 76 this month.
Anyone who has had conversations with Colin Bird will know how hard it is to get straight answers to even the most simple questions - this is not because he tries to avoid or hide the truth but simply because he tends to ramble on and gets sidetracked into other areas - for example one moment he can be talking about Mozambique and then divert to South Africa or some project he was involved with 30 years ago - in a nutshell it is extremely frustrating.
I have decided to 'ignore' the alluvial situation, clearly the numbers were not as expected back in the early times when Colin anticipated 4 contractors and suggested meaningful income, despite this we must be thankful for what we do get, there is no risk to XTR shareholders and the money serves some purpose in covering some G&A costs.
Most shareholders are here for Manica Hard Rock, last Thursday (in the small amount of time I had with him) he simply suggested there was a lot going on at Manica - that was all he said, he then diverted to Zambia - he is exceptionally excited about Zambia.
What is worthy of comment this statement today ....
"We have reviewed our management structure and are making several changes to meet the requirements of the Company's aggressive production development and new exploration targets in Zambia."
Does this mean he is bringing in new management, is he now going to hand the reigns over to someone more focused, a new CEO maybe.
Also of note is that Xtract are using a new PR outlet, this may become apparent shortly, there appears to be something going on behind the scenes, also the 14% stake taken by Sanderson Capital - one assumes in the last placing at 1.2p - why Xtract now ?
I have to say I am very surprised by the share price decline, it started as soon as they announced they would be issuing shares in respect of the payment of £160k to KPZ International Ltd - are these being forward sold I wonder ??
Lots to discuss as ever.
James
I guess it depends if how you interpret the 'last month comment'. Last month of the quarter or first month of Q4. Notwithstanding that, as HawaiifiveO was asking CB about alluvial progress, I think it would have been more honest of CB to have at least hinted that the last quarterly results were going to be bad or at least average - (they were the worst ever prod figures) and not just talk about and focus on one good month. After speaking to CB it left HawaiifiveO thinking that the alluvial's are moving in the right direction. That clearly isn't happening. Obviously we can only go by the brief H50 gave us.
'I asked him about the alluvials - he commented that last month was a good month so it does look like they are moving in the right direction'.
The comment was made in November’s JLP meeting , so last month would have been October?
So quite possibly Colin is blameless here, and it’s just been misinterpreted
NtM
Yes I am also reasonably confident that with so many 'irons in the fire' and options for income, we should see a rerate sometime next year and hopefully moving-up to my circa 6p price prediction in the future.
CBs alluvial comments were, if anyone needed it, a reminder to take a lot of what he says with a pinch, or should that be sack, of salt. As many have said before, there are some trust issues with CB. As H50s chat with CB took place after Q3 figures were known to CB, you would have thought CB would have tried to dampen expectations (as they were the worst ever prod figures) and not have only said that the last months were very good. I am sure H50 reported CBs comments accurately.
Hard to equate comments of: First month's figures were second best ever + last months very good = worst ever production figures !
Not too late for one of the political parties to hire CB as a spin doctor - whoever did would win next months election with ease :)
Fine post Andrew !
Once again I'm very disappointed in Quarterly alluvials and once again Colin Bird shows why he has got a reputation for a 'bit of a Bullsh***r'
But, I'm in a good mood because of, seemingly, decent 'Ard Rock progress and, seemingly, decent Zambia progress...hence why I -kindly - added the three small words ' bit of a' before the Bullsh***r !!!
A hard core punters only stock this remains imho.. but I THINK I see plenty of light here now so here's very much hoping for 2020
Figures were disappointing, in fact the worst ever against production figures. Some good news is that we are now getting $1388 an ounce rather than circa $1200. As poor as these figures are it really is not a big issue in the grand scheme of things.
As I've said a few times before the alluvial income is peanuts and it will not be the driver for any rerate. Even very good alluvial figures will be insignificant against projected FB income.
One observation though - CB's comments re alluvial income. In the last update, he said the first month was the second best month ever and was reported to say the last month was very good. Looking at the total quarterly figures I can only assume the contractors took the second month off ! After his comments I don't think anyone would have expected these prod figures to be the worst ever. Raising expectations and then not delivering, will always lead to disappointment.
He has now given first month prod figures for Q4 which are the broadly the same as last quarter first month. But why also state, in the highlights, the gross contractor revenue figure and use full current POG in the calc? $700K does look impressive, but it's irrelevant to Xtract. We don't get full POG and moreover Xtract only get circa 10% of the total contractor revenue !! That's probably why total contractor income has never been announced in the quarterly updates.
I'm sure he wasnt trying to spin things ......
Glass half full or half empty. The October figure does at least give some encouragement.
The sooner we get some revenue from hard rock the better. That was a weak quarter which ever way its spun. We were led to believe that the 3rd month of Q2 was the best ever but then all of Q3 was way worse ? At least Sino are still working.