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Despite Colin persistently blowing smoke up this that 2mt was essentially a nailed on certainty, I think most here are of the opinion that that now won’t be the case, even when the Ascot drilling to-date is included.
Regarding decision to mine, do we have confidence we are approaching this? We will have an updated pit model plus what is likely to be <2mt resource across Racecourse and Ascot. Does anyone actually know when a decision to mine can feasibly be declared along the exploration timeline? Who’s to say this wouldn’t require pre-feasibility/feasibility? My biggest concern is that we get the pit model plus MREs totalling <2mt and are then just stuck in limbo. Nevertheless, I topped up significantly recently on the basis that all other assets underpin the current share price, regardless of Bushranger.
Basically Chris what the agreement is saying, either you show us a a minimum resource , or you can show from what you have got from financial modelling that it is economically recoverable.
Colin has said previously that a Pre or DFS are not a pre-requisite for a sale.
I much prefer ‘economically recoverable’ to ‘decision to mine’. Alas, I’ve largely stopped listening to what Colin has said outside of official RNS’s
>> I much prefer ‘economically recoverable’ to ‘decision to mine’.
Under the Valmin code they are effectively the same thing, which is why that is a key phrase in the buyback agreement.
The DtM is a Australian term and I believe one that maybe even had Colin unsure in the early days. In interview he said you can’t just declare a DtM, you have to expose the ore body with the pit created, sink a partial shaft…….along those lines
Have a listen https://youtu.be/2WFUFdHX62Q
Worth a watch back but from 9mins he talks of the DtM
Ha ha yes I think we have all had our hands held and dragged along for the ride it feels. I will certainly be thankful to Colin for keeping me guessing, interested and invested along the way if he pulls this off.
The calm before the storm?
Its always darkest before the dawn (I think Colin Bird actually said this on a recent podcast)
What is left to report before we get this new conceptual pit (ETA much disputed)? All assays in now from all outstanding drills? I think it has been expressly said no more drilling (ie no Phase 3) required before delivering conceptual pit / D2M etc? As time goes on we move towards reports of fully commissioned gold production at Manica, and a quarterly volume.
What news is out there waiting to happen and, excluding major unexpected events or incidents, what chance of negative or positive market reaction is there to any news we are waiting for?
Many here are bemused by the lack of reflection in the current SP of what most believe is the promise of Bushranger. But not everyone speculates. We are speculating, but the market moving share buying (or not!) interest will come from deep pocketed investors who can justify their capital (and/or their jobs) by pointing to solid, irrefutable information. Be that revenues from gold production, or clear interest from a 3rd party that want to buy the resource at Bushranger with a view to mining it.
Before that happens current holders may lose patience and sell, but most other investors are probably waiting for their current positions to get to somewhere near breakeven before committing more funds.
For the record, I am as impatient as most others for news that heralds the next chapter in the story of Bushranger.
I am looking forward to seeing this sold!
I think we all are Fosters..... but in the meantime I'd like to know what we actually have in the ground....
Apparently number crunching..... but can't they hear my teeth grinding?
I’m a simple guy and just want confirmation that FB has started commercial production and XTR are actually making money from it!
James
We should be getting that news before end of year - probably in December imho, and at about the same time along with:
1. The updated mining study
2. maiden mineral resource estimation for the Ascot prospect
3. Alluvial Q3 results
I'm sceptical when some use the clichéd phrase " News bomb coming" but in this situation - it may well be true :)
lets hope its good news though !
No doubt we should, however with the delays experienced to date I’d feel much better when it’s confirmed.
Without Manica coming online before YE I can see a small raise being required (my understanding is that the director cash forecasts are based on the assumption that Manica comes online pre 2023). Which in these markets would be less welcome than usual.
I won’t hold my breath for one of these so called news bombs but I will remain quietly confident of getting good XTR news one day
4. Assays from 2 x Footrot drill holes
5. News that Joel has put the old MozGold plant up on Ebay...
Lizzy off, whos next??
How many priministers will we of had since Colin said we will get an updated model?
NONE
Apparently a new PM Rota system has been introduced.
Its my turn to be PM on Tuesday 6 December 9am to 12 noon. I'm at the dentist that morning so if anyone can swap shifts with me it would be appreciated :)
PRIME MINISTERS
So now we havnt hit the 2mt, we have to wait for decision to mine which I remember Colin saying would involve groundwork. So how much have we got in the bank to start the groundwork? At least it's only 11m to pay dirt. Didn't he say something about sinking a shaft?
How long will this all take?
What happend to selling in April/may?
I now know why Colin referred to bushranger as a massive inclined carrot lol
How much salary has Colin taken since saying we would have an updated model around October 2021!!
I think the confusingly named Decision to Mine is throwing us off a bit. And Colin in the past. His comments, a while back now, about commencing a mine as a part of making a Decision to Mine valid were wide of the mark in my opinion. A learning curve for all?
As far as I am concerned a Decision to Mine is presenting an verifiable model of an economical possibility of a mine. I don't think its like trying to validate your domestic planning permission by digging a few trenches to prove you've started work on the planned building work.
Can anyone validate this view?
You think Colin would come out and tell us exactly what it means, but he doesn't and he won't.
Best us mug punters are kept in the dark.
I have noticed in many cases that 'investors', a loose term for people that buy shares in any company, feel aggrieved that they don't fully understand what they have bought into and then expect it to be explained to them in layman's terms after the fact.
There are many gaps in my own knowledge with respect to resource exploration, but I regard that as my fault, or choice, to invest without the understanding that a 30 year career in mining might have helped with. Even so, a 30 year career in resource exploration in Chile may not have enlightened me about the peculiarly Ozzie term 'Decision to Mine'.
And for this reason I don't complain incessantly that the company I have invested in is failing to give me regular remedial lessons in knowledge that I should already maybe have sought out for myself before I chose to commit my own funds in the hope of making a return from that company's efforts.
>> As far as I am concerned a Decision to Mine is presenting an verifiable model of an economical possibility of a mine
Yes, that is my understanding too. Its a specific term used in the Valmin code, which in turn is used for valuation purposes in the buyback agreement.