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Well interesting- Citadel took out a further 0.13% short on 25th Oct ( interim day) so they are up to something - total now 0.67% short. I’ve put a limit sell on mine so they can’t “borrow” my shares. I know some investors think they can’t have much impact on a 5 bill mcap company but it all depends on volume of the free float ( shares not held by the institutions) they can be very manipulative in how they use them. Why now ?? Outlook or something else ? All IMO - please DYOR.
Should add that the German market as other posters have mentioned is hopefully going to be a big growth part of Wtb over time . Please DYOR .
Citadel took out a short on 21st Oct - 0.17% on top of their existing which brings it to 0.54%. So either they hedged for poor results ( they were good) or they’re acting on behalf of some other enterprise ( venture capitalists??) . I’m only guessing but same happened to Morrison’s before their takeover. It’s all IMO but may explain the drop on what we’re very reasonable interims. Please DYOR.
why has this crashed so much today
compared to FY 2019, primarily caused by the
equity raise share dilution.
Take a look at pre COVID EPS!.
@Nick1234 Where did you get the £700m forecast from please? And is it operating profit, EBITDA, PBT or net income?
in addition to the net cashflow , dividend and the % of freehold, the big future catalyst will be a strong rev growth in Germany, this is what's going to propel WTB higher, you'll find as the UK goes into a hard recession (we're already in one and it'll get worse), Germany might just be the news we'll in the next few set of results as they might weather it better.
F&B is doomed in the next 12/18 months, need to aggressively cut costs there or just divest entirely.
i am bullish long term, but it might trade sideways for next few months.
Yes, it's been a long wait but totally agree that as soon as the market turns the corner WTB will prove to be an excellent investment.
Nice to see that the German business is also starting to take off - fantastic long-term potential to build a business on the same scale as the UK.
It’s a bear market atm so the macro outlook is not great hence why IMO the lacklustre reaction to what are very good results. Whitbread weathered the financial crisis very well with only a 3% drop off and I suspect will do well in this possible recessionary period. People will always try to get away and the 50/50 business/leisure split should bode well. F&B down (5%) on prepandemic level doesn’t help but they are targeting that side with offers etc. Bear markets end eventually and then the SP should recover. On the big plus side Whitbread have 55% of properties as freehold and a very strong brand and are cash positive ( exc leasehold liabilities)
So it’s just a matter of waiting for sentiment to change. All IMO & DYOR.
The company is forecasting full year profits of c£700m but is only valued at £5.2bn.
Decent set of results IMO. Pleased to see the return of the interim divi too.
It trades on a very high multiple ...
wild ride past year, 3360p Oct 2021, went to 2246p last week !...on the back of excellent figures and WTB now exceed pre pandemic profits....
https://twitter.com/surprised_trade/status/1584791926909566976
'H1 profits exceed pre-pandemic levels and we remain significantly ahead'
Conversely, many more people are ditching holidays abroad with all the 'baggage' accompanying them, and staying in the U.K. Another Covid outbreak outside of these waters will only assist the UK hospitality driven economy in general.
Buy British you know it makes sense!
Unfortunately, I can't see it breaking out whilst inflation and energy bills are forecast to be so high. The concern over consumer disposable income is holding this share back.
It seems it is stuck in a trading range at the moment. Needs to break out.
Re ran the figures here and came up with a intrinsic value of £62 p/s , can some one else please check these and confirm or question it . Seems high but numbers dont look wrong to me .
When we stayed in a Premier Inn in Leeds recently for 3 nights they did not clean the room every day "due to Covid" you could get it done if you requested it and get fresh towels ,tea etc from reception.
Personally I prefer this as it is no hardship to throw a duvet over the bed every morning. Rooms were only deep cleaned when you checked out.
Its wrong to attribute the high occupancy just to seasonal demand, although that is obviously a major factor.
The main driver of demand is the demise of the opposition, no so much from the larger hotel groups, but from the thousands of small hotels and B&B's that have closed since Covid struck and also the pubs with accommodation that have closed.
So, even if demand falls for UK accommodation, Premier Inn is likely still to be busy with high occupancy levels.
The real challenge is staffing and even that situation could improve with more cash strapped workers looking for jobs.
I have also noticed that hotels that you could have booked for £50 a night a year ago are now £75/£80. Although they have the same cost pressure as everyone else, I think that their occupancy and margins will be significantly up this year. With the nightmare experiences of going abroad and yet another great summer in the Uk with the weather, I am sure that more people will be using UK holidays next year. At some point this will be reflected in the share price
spent weekend around Redditch and Premier hotels within miles absolutely rammed (full) and charging £145 to £170 a night there was no shortage of takers :-)
Are you guys on this planet - Starbucks is valued at over $90 bn.
Try doing even 1 minutes worth of research.
Not had a proper look, but at a P/E of around 25 for erratic earnings with an horrific balance sheet, if WTB put in a bid, I would be selling my WTB faster than you can say bankruptcy. If I wouldn't own them directly, I certainly don't want to own them indirectly. Add to that the question of funding the acquisition...
I would obviously take a proper look at SBUX's balance sheet first to see if something like IFRS 16 is at play and whether synergies really could produce perofrmance greater than the sum of their parts, but at first glance, it's a no from me.
Two wrongs don't make a right.
If Starbucks is up for sale , perhaps we could buy it. We certainly made a serious mistake with selling Costa , time to make amends ?
Thanks S001