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Leaflessclover on the AEX board posted this article that says that Dangote will switch to gas now in march 2018. "Meanwhile Wentworth Resources, which holds the Mnazi Bay licence along with operator Maurel & Prom, has said its financial situation is continually improving as TPDC and Tanesco keep up with payments. In its most recent company update, Wentworth said it had received a net $2.5 million in February for gas sales from the Mnazi Bay concession, where production continues to rise. �Volumes have begun to ramp up significantly with the first two turbines at [the] Kinyerezi 2 [gas-fired power plant in Dar es Salaam] now operational and the remaining four turbines expected to be commissioned during this year,� the company said in January. Another new source of demand is the 3 mtpa Dangote cement factory in Mtwara, which is currently using diesel to generate power but intends to have fully switched to gas for both its electrical supply and to fire its kilns by March 2018. Wider gas growth plans Power sector demand growth is a key reason why the outlook for Tanzania�s gas suppliers is looking rosier. The fact Tanesco is being restructured to help alleviate losses also means Tanzania�s ambitious power plant plans now look more viable. Tanzania�s ministry of energy plans to bring around 5 GW of new generation capacity online by 2020. Beyond the startup of Kinyerezi 2, projects include the government�s 184 MW Kinyerezi 1 expansion, which should come online in 2019; China Power Investment�s 600 MW Kinyerezi 3 gas-fired plant, which should start up in 2020; and Poly Technology of China�s 330 MW Kinyerezi 4 plant, which should also be online in 2020. Further south, Tanesco expects to start up Kilwa Energy�s 320 MW Somanga Fungu gas-fired power plant, near Songo Songo, later this year. TPDC is also working to connect more industrial users, manufacturers and households to the gas grid through the expansion of its Regional Gas Distribution Project. The ongoing restructuring of Tanesco will be fundamental to ensuring these plans go ahead, particularly as the company has been denied a much-needed hike in power prices and has been forced to turn to the World Bank and African Development Bank (AfDB) for loans instead. �We are still working on [the loan],� Amadou Hott, vice president of power, energy, climate and green growth at the AfDB, told Interfax Natural Gas Daily at the end of February. The bank�s focus is on helping restructure the company to reduce financial and technical losses. �Some of the funding we want to give them will be linked to operational performance,� Hott said. But the company will ultimately need to raise power prices to ensure cash flows are stable. �Not suddenly, because of social reasons, but they need to have a plan to gradually increase tariffs because they cannot give what they donᦙ
Nice article discovered by our friendly neighbours: http://interfaxenergy.com/gasdaily/article/29860/tanzanias-domestic-gas-market-picking-up By Leigh Elston 5 March 2018 Tanzanias plans to export LNG might be progressing slowly, but President John Magufulis industrialisation drive means growth in the countrys domestic gas market is looking more promising. As state utility Tanesco and state-owned Tanzania Petroleum Development Corp. (TPDC) start to iron out payment issues that led to disruptions in power operations two years ago, investors are looking at new opportunities in Tanzanias upstream and midstream. Aminex Petroleum, which operates the Kiliwani North Development Licence (KNDL) and the Ruvuma production-sharing agreement (PSA), is looking into further drilling in Tanzania. Aminex upgraded its pmean estimates for gas in place at the Ntorya field within the Ruvuma PSA in early 2018, raising the figure from 36.8 billion cubic metres to 53.0 bcm. The plan is to drill a third well at the site, which will feed into the Madimba gas plant around 30 km away. Aminex is also conducting technical work to assess the feasibility of further drilling at the KNDL, where a new Kiliwani South prospect has been identified. Any new production brought onstream could be fed into the Songo Songo gas plant, which supplies a pipeline running to Dar es Salaam. The biggest growth areas will be in power generation and heavy industry, both of which will drive demand and are heavy users of gas, Jay Bhattacherjee, chief executive of Aminex, told Interfax Natural Gas Daily. Meanwhile Wentworth Resources, which holds the Mnazi Bay licence along with operator Maurel & Prom, has said its financial situation is continually improving as TPDC and Tanesco keep up with payments. In its most recent company update, Wentworth said it had received a net $2.5 million in February for gas sales from the Mnazi Bay concession, where production continues to rise. Volumes have begun to ramp up significantly with the first two turbines at [the] Kinyerezi 2 [gas-fired power plant in Dar es Salaam] now operational and the remaining four turbines expected to be commissioned during this year, the company said in January. Another new source of demand is the 3 mtpa Dangote cement factory in Mtwara, which is currently using diesel to generate power but intends to have fully switched to gas for both its electrical supply and to fire its kilns by March 2018. Wider gas growth plans Power sector demand growth is a key reason why the outlook for Tanzanias gas suppliers is looking rosier. The fact Tanesco is being restructured to help alleviate losses also means Tanzanias ambitious power plant plans now look more viable. Tanzanias ministry of energy plans to bring around 5 GW of new generation capacity online by 2020. Beyond the startup of Kinyerezi 2, projects include the governments 184 MW Kinyerezi 1 expansion, which should come online in 2019; China Power Inve
It�s finally looking really good for WRL. We should expect increasing gas flow rates until Kinyerezi II produces about 150MW. (The last two turbines are steam turbines, converting heat to power). The nice thing about Kinyerezi I extension is that is not a combined cycle station, so all 185 MW will be generated by gas turbines. (The result is that Kinyerezi I extension will consume more gas than Kinyerezi II, i.e: 185 MW vs 150 MW). While 80 MMscf/d production is very healthy already, WRL truly becomes a cash cow at rates above 100 MMscf/d! Can�t wait to see that happen! http://csi.energy/project/kinyerezi-ii-combined-cycle-power-plant-240-mw/
https://dailynews.co.tz/index.php/home-news/56282-five-competing-for-rufiji-dam-project "...Dr Abbas said it was the government�s expectation to ensure the country generates sufficient and reliable power to electrify its domestic and export demands. He further noted that expansion work at the natural gas powered Kinyerezi I and II were at different stages of completion. He said the extension work at Kinyerezi I would add up 185 MW in the national grid while the Kinyerezi II would raise the total in the state electric grid to 240 MW. �We have already released 111.88 MW in the national grid from Kinyerezi II, we hope to commission at least 30 MW every month until we reach the 240 MW mark,� he said. According to the director, implementation of both projects were at 60 and 90 per cent. Kinyerezi II would be completed by September, three months earlier than the initial deadline of December this year. Tanzania, whose population is approximately 53 million, has 1,400 MW of installed grid capacity." (In a discussion with CSI Energy Group exactly one month ago, they stated that Kinyerezi II was generating 81 MW, so another 30 MW added to the national grid, which equals about 6 mmscf/d)
Regarding Substainable Capital: "Unlike traditional asset managers, who focus solely on financial information in the determination of fair value, at Sustainable Capital we believe that by combining rigorous fundamental investment research with detailed investigations into material sustainability factors, we can determine a better reflection of a company's true long-term value. In essence we include assessments often ignored by investment managers (sustainability factors) and incorporate these factors into traditional valuation techniques. We believe that by assessing, and pricing, these risks and opportunities Sustainable Capital will deliver higher long-term risk-adjusted returns to investors."
Nice to see increased volume while we wait for news on Tembo and all the time revenue is increasing and Debt decreasing ;) GL
Which means that someone else (most likely one buyer) picked approx. 5,5 million WRL shares (close to 3% of outstanding shares) on Thursday/Friday last week. Are instituional buyers taking a bet on farm out on Tembo soon?
http://hugin.info/136496/R/2173673/838081.pdf Wentworth Resources Limited has received the attached notification of major interest in shares from Sustainable Capital Ltd. Increase to 7.09%
Amazing that some people are prepared to sell their shares at this price. Will be interesting to see what happens next week. If this buyer continues the price must go up soon!
Around 7 miillions shares was bought on Thursday and Friday, most likely by one buyer. That should be pretty interesting!
Very good news! Not unexpected of course, but nice to get confirmation that production is now at 80 MMscf/d. Payments should increase to 3.5 mln / month at this production rate, so looking forward to the first paid invoice! (In ca. 4 months time?) The discrepancy between actual company performance and valuation is growing, so no doubt there will be a sudden correction at some point.
Up 5,86% at OSE. Will we see any activity at AIM at all..?
Fantastic! Production has been increasing every month since Q2, and payments seems pretty regular. Production for March will probably be even closer to 90 mmscf/d, as 3rd turbine at Kinyerezi 2 was started up during February, and now producing 81 MW per day. Will be 240 MW when all six turbines is connected.
The Company is pleased to inform shareholders that payments received during February for gas sales generated from the Mnazi Bay Concession in Tanzania were $2.5 million net to Wentworth. The Company is also pleased to report that gross production volumes during February from the Mnazi Bay gas field averaged 80 MMscf/d, the highest monthly volumes achieved from the field since production started.
Same here alph, based on the increased coverage from Malcy. I will wait for the June update where I feel WRL have a fair chance of coming of any sub's bench?
Must admit Im a bit suprised, based on what he has said about WRL last 12 months. But since he (naturally) doesnt have any explanation why it isnt among his favourable stocks per february, its impossible to argue against it. Maybe he is disappointed about things taking too much time regarding new customers for gas in Mnazi Bay and farm out in MZ? On the other side, some of his picks do hardly have any income now or the nearest future..
Looks like WRL need to wait for the June review, could be on the Sub's bench? www.malcysblog.com/2018/02/delayed-bucket-list-2018-six-new-stocks-now-review-planned-june/
Well you see problems and I see opportunities gents, the SP will speak for itself over the next few months I am sure. All of these points have of course been covered in the devlopment plan and 25 year development licence application (if only we had a copy ;)) and I am sure the Zubair corp will have some influence in delivery. Have a lovely weekend.........
Problem 4; the Tanzanian Natural Gas Utilisation Master Plan, issued summer last year, foresees a pipeline from Mtwara to Njobme (phase 1, see page 40-41), which will essentially pass by Ntorya. While some irrational decisions can always expected from TPDC, I very much doubt that they are mad enough to build a temporary pipeline for ~30 mln, which will be used for a year of 5 perhaps.... Much simpler would be to finally pay some outstanding Orca invoices, after wich Orca will surely be very happy to supply them more than Ntorya can even deliver!
cperkin; As I see it: - Problem one; Aminex has huge upcoming expenses before they can commercialize Ntorya. More drilling + local infrastructure and local processing facilities is very expensive. Ask WRL shareholders... - Problem two; The waiting time before TPDC will see the benefit of and have the money to finance and build a pipeline to Madimba. - Problem three; Will TPDC finance a pipeline to Madimba without claiming a (20% ?) share of the license?
My expectation is certainly different mick. I expect AEX with the upcoming NT-3 drill and of course the execution of the development plan as delivered by GE & the 25 year development licence to do very well. I also expect that WRL may well also do very well this year, pending the relocation and more importantly developments @ Mozambique. Good luck to both, but then I would say that.
Unfortunatey, I do not fully agree HY. While I agree that WRL is undervalued,and I do indeed expect a recovery relative to AEX, I do think that AEX is significantly overvalued. As long as AEX assets are stranded, a comparing reserves with WRL is simply misleading; you are comparing apples with pears. The AEX share price has little to do with it potential reserves, it is mainly based on false expectations and hype, in my view. WRL on the other hand is a forgotten share, and currently something like a phoenix rising from the ashes. It will take a lot of time still before people realise what the potential is of this company. So overall, I don�t think we should expect that WRL will ever reach a price as high as AEX has been in the past. I expect that WRL will slowly and modestly increase in price, while AEX will gradually decline.
As always, an excellent post HY and could not agree more.
According to the AEX recent CPR, the company holds 57.4% of the 1.94 BCF estimated reserves at Killiwani N. However, if we were to make the assumption that the contingent resources of 80.6BCF pending development can be turned into reserves following a successful NT3 drill, approval of 25 year development license, a gas sales agreement and TPDC building a gas pipe-line to the gas processing station at Madimba. Then these resources could be turned into reserves some time in a not too distant future. In such case AEX would have about 61.5 BCF in reserves (75%*80.6+57.4%*1.94). AEX current market cap is about 150 MUSD. Now compare this valuation with WRL's current market cap of about 73 MUSD and reserves of 176.4 BCF. Less then 50% of AEX market cap despite having reserves that are almost 3 times as large and that assumes that AEX contingent resources pendent development can be turned into reserves. My message is not that AEX is overvalued, but that WRL is grossly undervalued.
Sorry forgot the link. https://www.dailynews.co.tz/index.php/business/55922-cashew-lift-lindi-mtwara-growth