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Mick, assuming that all other costs besides depreciation are more or less fixed, I am looking at an annual profit of 10.5-11 MUSD at a production rate of 100mmscf/d. That would imply a P/E ratio of about 7X, which is a bit on the low side I think. I am more impressed by the cash flow as the TPDC receivable of about 20 MUSD is expected to be repaid during 2018. Assuming a production rate of 100 mmscf/d, cash-flow coud be as high as 40 MUSD, including payback of the TPDC receivable. Not bad for a company valued about 70 MUSD.
March 29 is a national holiday in Norway, and OSE is closed this day and does not open before April 3rd. Would not be surprised if there will be a new notice informing that Q4 will be on March 28.
While we are waiting on the Q4 numbers (and much more importantly: news on the plans ahead...), I have kept myself "entertained" with some number crunching regarding future P/E ratios, if one ignores any upsides such as Tembo or rates beyond 130 MMscf/d. At 60 MMscf/d (as in Q3), the number is not great, but this changes pretty dramatically at higher flowrates. Before I share my numbers, has anybody else looked at this? What do you feel is a normal P/E ratio for a small cap oil producer operating in a country like Tanzania?
https://www.dailynews.co.tz/index.php/business/56652-dangote-cement-plant-closed-for-routine-maintenance-management �As to the energy costs, we have been using temporary diesel generators to power the plant and this has a high cost. We are replacing them with gas turbines this month and that will stem these losses."
http://www.lse.co.uk/share-regulatory-news.asp?shareprice=KIBO&ArticleCode=gcr3lry2&ArticleHeadline=Tanzanian_Government_Prioritises_Private_Sector&ahc=3t8qxl2f Thanks to PlayaBlanca
Very strange the RNS was there 10 mins ago and has now gone?
Wentworth, the Oslo Stock Exchange (OSE: WRL) and AIM (AIM: WRL) listed independent, East Africafocused oil & gas company, has changed the date for releasing its 2017 Annual Financial Statements and MD&A from Thursday, 22 March to Thursday, 29 March 2018.
From Dangotes presentation today: - Large infrastructure projects driving cement demand - Sales volumes up 25% - Gas genset expected in March - Kilns dual firing on coal/gas from Q2 2018 http://www.dangotecement.com/investor-relations/financial-reports/
http://allafrica.com/stories/201803190490.html "Dar es Salaam � The use of domestically produced natural gas in Tanzania has resulted in Sh8 trillion in savings to the economy over the last three years alone." "According to TPDC records, the demand for natural gas has doubled from a total of 145 million standard cubic feet (mcf) per day in 2016 to 300mcf last year." "The TPDC acting managing director, Mr Kapuulya Musomba, noted that, "at the moment, gas supply is ahead of demand. But, we are working to meet the needs as per the industrialisation plan." He also revealed that TPDC is currently carrying out a study to map out gas demands across the country. So far, at least 42 industries have been connected to the natural gas supply system - although only 37 are fully using this source of energy. Also, two non-industry institutions are using natural gas at the moment, while only 70 houses have already been connected to the natural gas pipeline, which runs from Ubungo to Mikocheni in Kinondoni District, Dar es Salaam."
http://tanzaniapetroleum.com/2018/03/14/tanzania-and-mozambique-can-learn-from-dubai/
I think our reporter is not so good with the 0's Mick. I expect it is 3GW although this is at odds with the report published the other day that said 5 GW by 2020? Maybe demand is growing so fast they just can't keep up with the calculations ;)
From 4150 MW now to 30 GW in 2020??? Articles like these only show how utterly unrealistic the targets are of the Tanzanian government, or how little the reporter understands of the power business.... Did you know that world�s largest power plant (not a dam) generates �only� 7965 MW? https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kashiwazaki-Kariwa_Nuclear_Power_Plant
cperkin, the outlook for gas demand certainly looks good. I hope we can get some news from WRL in their upcoming Q4 report, both about the commercial operating date (COD) that should result in a take-or pay clause and about plans for additional development wells at Mnazi Bay. Of course, such information needs to be coordinated with M&P, the operator.
tanzaniapetroleum.com/2018/03/09/tanzanias-thirst-for-gas/ London-based Business Monitor International (BMI) point out that Tanzania gas consumption reached 1.3 bn m� (45.9bn ft�) in 2016. The demand for gas is accelerating even the gas producers struggling to keep up. The Albert-based firm Wentworth resources that has a stake in Mnazi Bay gas field, foresee the growth gas demand in Tanzania in the full year 2018 The strong gas growth supported by increasing industrialization and power demand in the country. The extension of Kinyerezi -2 gas-fired plant and the commencement of gas-fired power generation at Dangote cement drive the gas demand in the region. Tanzania power generation capacity is 4150 MW. And the government target to reach 30000MW in 2020. This is an opportunity for those seeking to meet the country �s high gas demand.
Thanks MikkelSchmidt, The sooner we reach a production rate above 100 MMscf/d the better, and this looks like another opportunity to me, so great news! :-)
I just spoke with the IR of Dangote. "There is no date set for the FY2017 results at present, though I anticipate it will be before the end of March. TZ�s has turbines will be running this month. Gas-fired kilns will be later in the year. Regards" In other words, it seems like the 80 mmscf/d is without Dangote at all.
No idea, I thought that Dangote had already started using gas: http://nigerianews.ca/dangote-powers-tanzania-cement-plant-gas-turbine/
Anyone read anything regarding why Dangote has not start using their own gas-powered plant in Mtwara? In August it was said to start up next month (September), but according to todays articles it will start this month. Kind of strange, as everything seems ready, and they loose a lot of money using diesel-powered gensets.
Anyone read anything regarding why Dangote has not start using their own gas-powered plant in Mtwara? In August it was said to start up next month (September), but according to todays articles it will start this month. Kind of strange, as everything seems ready, and they loose a lot of money using diesel-powered gensets.
More information regarding the progress of Kinyerezi. Thank you Leafless at the AEX board. "He said the extension work at Kinyerezi I would add up 185 MW in the national grid while the Kinyerezi II would raise the total in the state electric grid to 240 MW. "We have already released 111.88 MW in the national grid from Kinyerezi II, we hope to commission at least 30 MW every month until we reach the 240 MW mark," he said. According to the director, implementation of both projects were at 60 and 90 per cent. Kinyerezi II would be completed by September, three months earlier than the initial deadline of December this year. Tanzania, whose population is approximately 53 million, has 1,400 MW of installed grid capacity" http://allafrica.com/stories/201803060513.html
Production from Ntorya may take at least a couple of years, according to Geoff Bury. (In Oslo this fall) AEX shareholders seem to underestimate the time and cost of bringing their gas to the market.
It always amazes me that Aminex features so prominently in such articles; it could take years before they can produce from Ntorya. Smells quite strongly of marketing material unfortunately... The Mnazi Bay wells are fully hooked up and ready to flow at 100 MMscf/d if required, and with a cheap compression project this can be increased further to 130 MMscf/d, according to the latest CPR. Now that is news! All we need to do is wait, until the media finally discovers this...
We can all thank the Norwegian social welfare/parent welfare system allowing me to stay home reading forums, and still get paid.. :-)
alph, you beat me by seconds.