To generate an attractive total return for shareholders consisting of dividend income and capital growth through investments in specialty lending opportunities.
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Started: broomtree, 18 Jun 2024 18:06
Last post: broomtree, 18 Jun 2024 18:06
Almost odd to see this move up but happy to see it. News of next return might help?
Started: fish2, 14 Jun 2024 18:39
Last post: fish2, 14 Jun 2024 18:39
I have trouble understanding why they don’t use the funds generate in the winding process up to buy their shares into treasury as there has been constant selling depressing the SP.
Given the enormous supposed discount to NAV this would give profits to the remaining holders.
Maybe Victory Park want to push the SP down and then use a sleight of hand to take out the loans and shares at a low valuation. They give so little information that’s what worries me.
Started: silverknight, 10 Jun 2024 16:05
Last post: CarpeDiem1, 14 Jun 2024 12:04
An 18.5% yield (according to LSE), potentially up to 2028, plus a share portfolio effectively valued at near zero by the market. The uncertainties around Fair Value surely baked into the share price now.
Thanks Broomtree
When they supply the Fair Value Assessment required I would imagine
Thinking of topping up shares but still have HL restriction. What should unlock this?
Yes, all in all I guess it's not a bad outcome for holders. At least with a bit more certainty over future dividend payouts, the focus for now returns to recovering as much of the NAV as they can for holders. Discount currently standing at over 47% according to HL, which seems pretty outrageous.
Started: JaAAScarborough, 10 Jun 2024 16:30
Last post: JaAAScarborough, 10 Jun 2024 16:30
Think this is positive....if there was some "horrendous" nav announcement you'd have thought it might've come at same time?!?
Started: NDEG, 7 Jun 2024 09:29
Last post: Krustysmegma, 10 Jun 2024 14:52
Certainly looks like the majority of trades today have been PI buys.
Still some retail buying so not all brokers have stopped sales?
Yes agreed broomtree, & 10x normal volume on Friday which must have been majority sales. Let's hope for a swift resolution & perhaps a rebound in the sp.
Just thinking further about this issue, with people only able to hold or sell, this could fall further for pure technical reasons….. I’m thinking there might be a buying opportunity coming when it’s resolved
Got it, yes could well have done. Will be sitting tight for now.
Started: silverknight, 7 Jun 2024 10:17
Last post: silverknight, 7 Jun 2024 10:17
Interesting. Normal trading on ii but the gap between the sp and nav continues to widen. I found the OakBloke report very helpful. Clearly a lot of nervousness here but is it overdone? the numbers suggest so.
Started: silverknight, 3 Jun 2024 11:57
Last post: broomtree, 5 Jun 2024 21:29
Be interesting to see what the divi is next month
Not convinced WEFOX will fail at all to be honest, smoke screen for massive cull of unprofitable assets
Looks like wefox represents about 35% of the equity investments. The remainder valued at c £36 mill (give or take). A write off would be painful but not terminal.
Started: silverknight, 17 May 2024 11:48
Last post: CarpeDiem1, 2 Jun 2024 10:16
Looking at the share portfolio and valuing wefox at zero, has anyone got a view as to the realisation value of the rest of the portfolio?
Decided to take some more but showing as a sell as usual
A fall again today despite what looks like a reasonable good RNS?
Difficult to work out when to consider buying.
I suspect there will be gains to be made by a slow winddown.
Not just more dividends but an improvement in the value of the equity side of the portfolio.
It does seem like a guaranteed gain here even if you discount the equity at zero. But the share price is falling so there is no incentive to buy just now.
Good informative article -thank you. Question for long term (in loss) holders is whether to bite the bullet and (keep) averaging down or accept an unquantifiable loss. Think I'll go with the former
Started: ians12345, 30 May 2024 18:53
Last post: ians12345, 30 May 2024 18:53
Coincidentally as 10Y yields also hit recent peak at 4.4% yesterday.
Last post: Agricore, 17 May 2024 07:54
That fall looks like Wefox, Chry got hammered
Started: silverknight, 11 May 2024 11:29
Last post: broomtree, 14 May 2024 18:05
Motörhead - thanks for that, I hoping the divi cut (which will certainly come), may be a bit bit further down the road but we’ll know soon enough
Might be worth waiting to see what the March monthly report has to say before making any decisions, which ought to be released in the next week or so.
The February report gives a 56% weighting to asset-backed lending and 15% to cash. January figures were 72% and 1%. The March, or possibly April, figure for Gross Revenue Returns should be of interest to see if this has had an impact on revenue. If there has, then VCP dividend cuts might occur earlier and/or be deeper.
Interesting to compare the maturities profile tables between the two months. Without having drawn in lines to get actual numbers, I think that it's fair to say that much of the reduction in lending has been in the 2025 maturities. And there is a brand new entry in the 2028Q3 column of around £25m. So some of the maturities look to have been extended - quite legitimatly, as was stated in various documentation as being a possibility. Related to the takeover mentioned below, perhaps? More of an irritation than anything, a payout delayed and to be added to the final 2028Q4 maturity - assuming that these are not sold beforehand. I'd be more concerned if maturities start to get extended beyond that quarter.
Note that as far as capital only is concerned, the NAV fell 6% in the month; the NAV TR has been trending down for a couple of years, now. The recent 5% capital return will be a further deduction to this. Also note that the 2023 annual report shows that asset-backed lending alone delivered a 6.6% NAV capital loss in the year.
The dividend has to be cut, just a matter of how soon and by how much. A reduction in lending and increased level of cash has to be a drag on income. Any view about the prospects for interest rates, mainly in the USA? Most of VSL's lending is at floating rates, so changes here are likely to impact income.
Short-term movements in the NAV will be guesswork, but a concern has to be the downward trend in total return - compare this with another IT now entering a similar wind-down mode, BGLF, where the trend in NAV TR has been upwards.
The capital return was based upon the NAV for end of January, so a just-over-two-months lag. Probably have to wait until the monthly report for April before the this reduction shows up in the NAV - which should be released in another month or so. From then on there might be an indication of the NAV per share numbers upon which the next return might be based.
The Razor Group purchase of Perch (two portfolio companies) has seen some of the lending replaced by preferred equity - a move lower down the subordinate food chain, and a potential increase in NAV volatility.
Google 'ecommerce aggregators' for opinion of these types of business. One is: https://www.practicalecommerce.com/amazon-aggregators-face-a-new-reality
Sometimes, searches on the names of some of the larger holdings can return a perspective of their prospects which could influence their future performance.
HL payment pm today
I'm trying to pick apart the details.
So. The asset backed lending (safest element) forms 73% of the portfolio with the investments in unlisted businesses and cash making up the remainder. If the latter were written off (highly unlikely) the NAV would reduce to around 58pps. The time factor also comes into play. Logically the capital repayment suggests that the next divi (June?) could be reduced to 1.8p. The investment portfolio is likely to take a long time to unwind hence the sp weakness. A c15% yield helps compensate for the uncertainty. One to monitor and maybe buy if you're feeling brave. Welcome any counter comments.
Does anyone know what will be happened after this retune of capital ? Tks
Started: silverknight, 10 May 2024 14:17
Last post: broomtree, 10 May 2024 22:19
I’m half convinced it’s a deliberate tactic with HL very slow with a lot of payments… only a few days interest but if they have large sums….. do the maths
HL can be slow.
Reinvest here, not on your nelly...
I haven't received anything in my HL account yet either.
I am averaging 92p (!) with dividends down to 75. Also a disaster. My payment has not arrived but its not uncommon when running GBP portfolio with my Swiss Bank...
So the 64,000 dollar question is do we reinvest the capital return on the basis of the known information. The data says yes the price action says no. Any thoughts.
Started: silverknight, 10 May 2024 09:52
Last post: Krustysmegma, 10 May 2024 13:20
I agree broomtree, only 5% of the NAV returned to us so far. I'm hoping for at least another couple of 2p divi's, then maybe a couple at 1.5p or so? Who knows though, certainly can't be relied upon like it has been in the past.
Still a no show in HL to be fair they did say ‘roundabout’
On the divi I’m not sure the reduction will be immediate given the sale plans
Nothing in my account either. But in Switzerland it can be a bit slow.
9th April: "Shareholders are reminded that the issue of B Shares will not reduce the number of the Company's ordinary shares in issue. However, following the issue and redemption of B Shares, the NAV (and NAV per ordinary share) will be reduced by the total amount of capital returned and the share price is likely to reflect the reduction in NAV. The pence per ordinary share amount of any dividends is therefore expected to reduce as a consequence of the reduction in NAV and, over time, through the changing composition of the portfolio."
No sign in my account yet. Any benefit more than offset by sp fall. Will the next divi in June or July still be 2p??
Started: silverknight, 12 Mar 2024 18:30
Last post: broomtree, 9 May 2024 18:15
‘Roundabout day’ tomorrow will be interesting to see how our brokers deal with this
Great, thanks broomtree.
Krusty - HL have confirmed B shares have been redeemed (not sure how that worked) payment in or around 10th May
That's my concern broomtree, that HL know nothing about it. I mean the RNS is clear enough but VSL still need to communicate with brokers, even if they don't intend "issuing" B shares. I'll contact them too.
Krusty - so all payments are 10th May? I did contact HL re allocation of B Shares but at this point they knew nothing about it?
Your missing nothing.
The market is not efficient as some like to say.
It's irrational at least in the short term.
If it was rational the share price would reflect the NAV minus a bit for risk.
I've done just that. Strange that the sp is showing such weakness right now. Makes me wonder if I'm missing something.
Started: silverknight, 17 Apr 2024 11:02
Last post: silverknight, 17 Apr 2024 11:02
Adv11. Your interpretation and calculations are exactly the same as mine. We'll soon see
Started: SD235, 5 Apr 2024 12:07
Last post: Krustysmegma, 5 Apr 2024 14:07
??
How else do you expect them to return capital to shareholders in a managed winddown? This is standard practice. At least by issuing & buying back/cancelling B shares there's no chance of investors missing deadlines, it'll all be done automatically with no shareholder action required.
"The Company expects to make an announcement in connection with an initial return of capital using the B Share Scheme next week"
So cash available to return to shareholders. Share price down ...no logic
Also in favour but will be interesting to see what the first return is
Thanks Krustysmegma
I don't think you need to worry about it Lfish. It won't matter which way us PI's vote, the II's will already have been consulted & will no doubt vote in favour. It's probably the safest, cheapest & easiest way to return funds to shareholders so I'll be voting in favour, just in case Schroders et al are asleep at the wheel.
How about the vote for the B shares ? Can everyone give some ideas please ? thanks
Started: silverknight, 16 Mar 2024 09:36
Last post: silverknight, 16 Mar 2024 09:36
Krusty. I think/hope that 60p is on the pessimistic side. I would hope for at least 75p otherwise fully invested LTHs are royally screwed. Tempted to keep adding around this price
Hi, does somebody know when & how much VSL is going to pay us back about windup? lost a quite money in this one,
should sell now when still have not lost all ? thanks
Started: silverknight, 20 Feb 2024 18:10
Last post: monkeyman99, 12 Mar 2024 12:04
Put your money where your mouth is lad, hope you have plenty of AMD busting the £200 mark now.
called cash flow as in the buy was borrowed from my cash reserves then the sale of vsl replenished later my cash stock pile. hence rebalancing my cash to stocks. this weeks swing trade buying 40k worth of amd at $162 at the close on 21/02/2024 and selling for 10% profit 23/02/2024 i still hold a large position at an average of $100 but it is nice to always take profits to keep motivated. also bought some datagroup at below 48eur this week and opened a position in roku at $63. last week sold my pltr when it hit $25 for 100% profit. as i stated asset manged funds always lose money and only the managers make money from them, jup was a chance not to be passed on and will be ditched like a ***** now with a trailing stop loss installed its a trash stock...........blah blah blah blah blah all bull ****e
Krustysmegma
NAV Still going down, although minimal.
This is going to be a long haul. I suspect times will be better by the time they start selling the unlisted shares etc
Krustysmegma
Still going down, although minimal.
This is going to be a long haul. I suspect times will be better by the time they start selling the unlisted shares etc
"Get back in your bedroom and only come out when your mother calls you out for your tea."
Wow what repartee! You are the man......I hope you understand irony?
Been averaging down for a long time on VSL. This was a big one for me and a long term holder. One of Woodford’s holdings way back as well.
Somewhat depressing to see the continuing NaV erosion.
Think I’ll stop and just take the hit from now on. It’s a losing battle.
Another 2p off on the 29th. Grrr.
Worth a small punt ? :-)
Started: silverknight, 21 Feb 2024 17:41
Last post: silverknight, 21 Feb 2024 17:41
A case of FOMO v FOLO. FOMO won today so I topped up to bring my average down. A divi for next month should be announced very soon.
Started: silverknight, 20 Feb 2024 11:01
Last post: Guitarsolo, 21 Feb 2024 10:32
I don't blame you silverknight. If total returns are anything like 80p that's about 45% from here. The question is, over what time frame? Personally, I'm in deep enough here and have been since 2017, so I probably won't add. However, if the next update gives a good indication of the plan and the price still doesn't move up, then I could be tempted.
i will be buying back in on this ***** again below 50p.
My finger's hovering over the buy button this morning Guitar, but still undecided. On paper, surely all the bad news is factored in ???