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123.25 for me for this week as a temporary blip!
I think over diversification is the reason most people cannot outperform.
I know it's more disky but over diversifying dilutes your winners albeit also magnifies losers.
If you pick the right shares, lower level of diversification is key much better returns.
If you wanna play it safe, you diverfisy tons! But you won't get much out of it - maybe 5-7%.
I am not sure if that is worth the effeort. But each one to their own and best of luck with your strategy
Csdi, well the pressure is all on you now? to prove us all wrong But best of luck
Thanks to Fleccy, Compund, Robleo, Dan et al. Great to see so many constructive criticisms/ideas.
Makes a change from most other shares I chat about.
GLA - CSDI
Your right Dan leave to the professionals....so will put on the tin hat, shut my eyes and hope for the best lol.....sure it will bounce back have been looking at AAL there share price has dropped like a stone over the last week and am looking to get into a mining stock think if this hits 130 will take it as my average is 129 was hoping for 140+ but this seems to go down more then up.....hope i don't sound to much like your besty Mikey
It’s been a while since I’ve been on here but just read a few posts and thought I’d give my thoughts …
The odds are only in your favour with a buy and hold strategy if you’re diversified. Anything can happen to a sector/company so having a buy and hold strategy on a highly concentrated portfolio of a few shares is extremely risky. Buying and holding VOD long term to date would have produced much lower returns than a diversified approach.
Buying and holding diversified funds / indexes over the longer term has always worked to date. You either need to be really lucky or put some hard graft in to outperform the indexes over the longer term. Most PIs don’t outperform for a variety of reasons, although the main ones are a lack of diversification, not knowing when to cut their losses, or trying to trade ranges where they are risking more than they can gain.
Nothing wrong with a bit of trading and banking some profit. You don’t need to be an expert in predicting exact price movements, but you do need to understand risk/return and risk management. It’s all well and good spotting a trading range, but what if it breaks out to the downside? Are you going to cut your losses and sell or hold? If you are going to hold then how far could it drop? Playing a range of 115-140 on VOD might make sense if you’re buying at 115 and looking to make 25. Say your downside is 95 which is 25 away, so risk/reward is equal. Playing a range of 45-50 to make 5 when your downside is 25 or a 20 loss means your downside is 4 times bigger than your upside. Your alternative of course is to use a stop loss and crystallise a loss when it drops out of the range, but be very wary of price spikes which are often designed to take out your stop loss before reversing direction, especially on spreadbetting accounts.
SB accounts are great for short term trading as the transaction costs are generally lower, although that will depend on which contract you choose and how long you keep your position open for. Daily funded bets have lower spreads, but you pay daily interest, which should currently be around 3.5% pa. That’s nothing for a few days/weeks, but eats into your profits if you hold for months. Futures contracts have higher initial spreads but you don’t pay interest so are better for longer term holds. I’ve used both on VOD.
Tax free profits can also significantly boost total returns if you’ve used up your allowances elsewhere.
If lower transaction costs and tax free profits are enough, then SB doesn’t have to be more risky than an ISA/share dealing account as you don’t have to use leverage. Eg, if you wanted to buy 10,000 VOD shares at 1.27, then you could either use £12,700 cash in an ISA(plus transaction costs), or put £12,700 in SB account and go £100 per point. If you do use leverage, run separate calculations to make sure you’ll have enough cash to cover your worst case scenario and be prepared to take the loss if it gets there. If you don’t do that then you wil
Fleccy I hope you are right, and we will find out how well it's doing on the 17th may, and of course we are hoping this doesn't go tumbling down to the £1 shop like last year
"unless of course you really are convinced Nick Read is as good as you make him out to be ?, but that choice is yours of course, so we will just have to hope it will improve, the share price certainly hasn't improved since Nick Read took over in 2018, but you may think differently about that"
Vodafone are being pressured to reorganise by the big players, the not so veiled threats against Reid are part of the same strategy. In my opinion, It suggests some big players are wanting to inflate the stock price over the next couple of years, probably with the intention of taking profits. If my speculative guess is correct, and Vodafone succumbs to the pressure we could see some good upward price momentum in the medium term. I can't see Vodafone going any lower, unless there's something hiding out of view.
" The most likely way to make money is to buy & hold."
That's my thinking too, Ive spent a lot of money topping up shares since Covid and Ukraine, now I'll just collect the dividends and await the eventual price recovery of UK shares. My assumption for VOD is somewhere between 16 and 230p, BT over £3, and Lloyds 70 to 80p.
Probably the best advice anyone could give you Dan, is don't put all your eggs in one basket, unless of course you really are convinced Nick Read is as good as you make him out to be ?, but that choice is yours of course, so we will just have to hope it will improve, the share price certainly hasn't improved since Nick Read took over in 2018, but you may think differently about that
And there was me thinking this was a light hearted chat forum, Still I suppose it saves me the cost of buying the financial times to read that article uplifted for free. Come on, give us your opinion, right or wrong, don't just uplift?? He is just copying spud on advfn, but not as good?
Fleccy. You know as well as I do, brokers make most of there money from investors who keep changing there mind, buying & selling, buying & selling. The most likely way to make money is to buy & hold. Of course you may lose, but it is all about costs, unless you are more clever than the next guy? Me against you (the next guy) I have no chance ???? & with no disrespect, I think the same for CSDI?! All served with a bit of sarcasm salt!!!! There is far too much of this," If I buy it is bound to fall,but if I sell it is bound to rise" nonsense on here. Give us a break you lot? The stock market is for positive thinkers, not negative thinkers.
Another shareholder said that he was “disappointed” that Vodafone had “missed opportunities”. He urged the company to crack on with deals noting that in some markets, antitrust considerations mean that there are limited numbers of options. “If you reject an opportunity and someone else does it, you’re limiting your options and putting yourself into a corner,” he said.
Harry Richards and Adam Darling, managers of the Jupiter Corporate Bond Fund, which has a position in Vodafone’s debt, said “we appreciate management’s intentions to simplify and de-lever the business” and that they were broadly comfortable with the company’s strategy. But they added: “We would like to see some tangible progress through actual news of deals.”
Some investors are pushing for Vodafone to sell a stake in its infrastructure group Vantage Towers, which it spun out last year. Read has been clear that he is currently seeking a deal for the towers business, with a preference to pursue an industrial merger with Orange’s Totem business, or Deutsche Telekom.
Most investors argue that a towers deal will make a material difference to Vodafone’s performance, reducing debt while freeing up cash to invest. Other telecoms groups like Altice have spun off towers businesses at rich valuations.
PSAM’s Schoenfeld said that he wants the board to “direct management to emphasise a significant cash transaction for Vantage”. This would “transform Vodafone’s balance sheet, narrow the sum of the parts discount and facilitate the pursuit of new strategic options,” and potentially a capital return to shareholders, he added.
One shareholder said that while a change in chief executive might set Vodafone back again in terms of missed opportunities, “if Read doesn’t get something done soon with the towers?.?.?.?then his days are numbered”.
Vodafone said in a statement that it remains “open and pragmatic when considering in-market consolidation” and it is “exploring multiple opportunities across a number of markets”.
The statement added: “We will not execute fire sales and we’ll always be seeking value accretive transactions that clearly benefit our shareholders.” Vodafone said that it regularly updates shareholders on its strategy and will do so further at its full-year results next month.
Investors in Vodafone are urging the FTSE 100 telecoms group to speed up long-awaited deal making to improve its stuttering performance.
Chief executive Nick Read has been under increased pressure since it emerged in January that Europe’s biggest activist investor, Cevian Capital, had taken a stake in the company and is angling for a major overhaul of the group, including shedding poor performing businesses, consolidating in key markets and beefing up telecoms expertise on the board.
The past decade has been tough for European telecoms, with fierce competition and tight regulation weighing on earnings. Although Vodafone’s share price has rallied since the start of the year, the company has shed more than a third of its value over the past five years.
For several months Vodafone has told investors that it would pursue deals with rival groups in markets where there is significant competition, such as Spain, Italy and the UK — but so far it has been unable to pull any of these off.
“Vodafone’s failure to do a deal has been a problem,” said Peter Schoenfeld, founder of New York-based hedge fund PSAM, one of the company’s shareholders. “It’s not like they’re not focused on the right areas and trying to pursue opportunities. It’s that they’re executing poorly.”
In February, Vodafone rejected an €11bn bid for its Italian business from French rival Iliad, owned by Xavier Niel, saying it was “not in the best interests of shareholders”. Then, after months of negotiations with Spain’s challenger telecoms group over a potential sale of its Spanish business, MasMovil turned its back on Vodafone in favour of a merger with Orange’s Spanish business.
Schoenfeld added that it was “particularly worrying that Vodafone senior management has made no public comments or engagement in recent weeks — not even a statement on a missed opportunity in Spain”.
One top 20 investor said: “We have serious doubts that the company can re-establish credibility with its legacy CEO and his strategy. There have been too many disappointments and missed opportunities.”
Another top 20 shareholder said that over the past nine months Read, a company veteran who became CEO in 2018, had “come quite a long way, matured and grown into the role,” but said that some shareholders were “unconvinced on whether he has the true leadership qualities to be the best chief executive for Vodafone”.
"My experience with most shares is that they fall back after a period of being in favour, especially with the FTSE100 where I normally do my fishing."
I don't disagree, going off recent history, but you could come out with a small profit and miss out on a breakout to the upside. I've previously sat on shares, that appeared to be marking time for a sustained period, and within days of selling half my holding the stock started climbing in short order, moving up over 16%; What made that experience worse, is that there was no news accounting for the rise and no apparent reason, so in the abscence of reason it felt personal lol. The only defining action accounting for the rise, as far as I could tell, was me selling my shares. Of course it was just a coincidence, but you get my point.
Hi Dan
Definitely not a "day trader".
Just trying to pick established ranges to make a profit more than once a year.
With LLOY I have one trading batch and one LTH
With PSN I have two LTH batches
With POLY (high risk) I've got targets at £4 (for 1/3), £6.75 (for 1/6) and £10 (for 1/6) to off load some shares and keep 1/3 for £13+ in my dreams.
I believe you should have a plan to exit when you open your position, although the Buffet's of this world would probably argue you should hold forever. My experience with most shares is that they fall back after a period of being in favour, especially with the FTSE100 where I normally do my fishing.
Only need to look at my mini p/f of 3 shares to see what happens if you do not sell out at the appropriate time.
My aim with LLOY is to try and increase my pot size by trading for 10% gains - but no luck so far LOL.
I am sure one of our previous posters used to trade VOD by buying several thousnad shares at a time and just looking for a penny or two increase to sell up and buy back on the drop.
Cheers - CSDI
If you sell & buy back, you need to make almost 1p on the price just to get your money back,so unless you have a crystal ball, why take the risk? Leave it to the professional traders. Frustrating I know, but we all need to realise our limitations.
Hi sotonspike. The vod close on the nasdaq equates to about £1.28.7. The F.S.E. price tends to be about 1p to 1.5p less so it could open at about 127.5. If it rises, or falls in the day,who knows? 50/50 I guess,
Hello CSDI. I didn't know you traded in & out of shares, (day trading) but although spread betting is very risky & I wouldn't advise it, you would stand a better chance of making money compared to day trading due the costs involved, mainly stamp duty. But my advice would be don't do either, unless you are an expert, not a CSDI. You have to remember the average day trader will break even before costs/spread, due to the law of averages, so after costs, in the long run, you are almost certain to lose, unless of course you are an expert at predicting short term share price movements. Good luck though.
out.....missed that off
Oh dear the Dow took a beating last night best hunker down Monday morning it's going to be bad....
Question is does one sell at the opening hoping to get back in at a lower price or just ride it....
Hi Dan
LLOY had a good week for a change. A lot of similarities though for long suffering holders. I thought LLOY might be better for trading from 45p to 50p, but its stuck in quicksand with my money stuck.
For me, I would consider trading VOD from 120-130.
If I had spare funds I would open an SB account so that I could also bet on a down turn. but SBs are too risky due to the leverage.
Next week could get messy after the big drops on the DOW and S&P500 tonight.
Which is fine if you are a buyer, but horrible for us LTHs.
So I think the ski slope stays with us for the early part of next week.
I've got Q1 results for POLY on Monday, and LLOY & PSN on Thursday so will have to wait and see what damage that does to my p/f. Will look to add a bit more to my ISA next month and decide then whether to start a 4th share or top up one of my 3 loss-makers LOL.
Have a good weekend and I will buy you a virtual pint if you win the VOD prize next week.
Cheers - C
C.S.D.I. shame on you! Just because you Lloyds bankers are losers, don't bring us down to your level? Does Lloyds have a Mikey like ski slope, or is it just us poor vod shareholders who are plagued with it??
Not even one of you got my ironic joke?? Me going 1.24? Don't be silly? Is the pope a non catholic??? So a 135.9 from me. Good luck sotonspike. As for all the putting down of talktalk, do any of you wise guys actually know what you are talk talking about? apart from nonsense media? If you do, let me know? I think we should leave it to Nick Read & the b.o.d. don't you?
I was hoping Elon Musk would say he is interested.....then it would rocket.....