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https://www.ft.com/content/f4022bfb-806b-4a75-9c7c-2586441f0b14
Exil 92p
AbjectP 93.05p
Newsid 94.6p
Wm2020 93p
SFDC 86.5p
What's truly mesmerising is that in today's world there seems to be a total lack of leadership and accountability.
Far too many are just in it for the quick buck and with no B$lls and vision. Only a short few decades ago you would see leaders being brought to tears because of a major plan that had gone haywire, or a chairman, CEO, prime minister etc handing in their resignation of their own free will because of the high expectations they set for themselves. What happened?
I am 100% confident in Vod upholding its value and appreciating sharply from here, but I am flabbergasted by the sheer lack of leadership of BOD, and the chairman particularly. Why is he not holding a press conference? Seriously, where is their pride and joy in living and acting as a leader? Why are standards set so low? Why not replace them all with A.I.?
Baffled, but then again, we live in times where central bankers have completely destroyed all credibility and accountability through confetti money. We are now paying the price for it.
https://www.ft.com/content/a5e352eb-40aa-421f-ad0b-da2f87c08aa3
Nick Read may be the only person who feels any surprise at his own ousting. Investors will ask Vodafone chair Jean-François van Boxmeer why it took so long. The board’s next step should be to appoint a replacement chief executive who can cut the sprawling UK-listed telecoms group down to size.
Read’s parting comments noted his pride in “delivering for customers and society”. He made no mention of shareholders. Over eight years, first as finance chief then as chief executive, Read has presided over a drop of £33bn in market value, more than half the starting total.
Vodafone has paid plenty of dividends. Squeezing costs to free up cash flow protected the payout but did not generate shareholder value. Any gains from slashing overheads were lost to competition in the group’s biggest markets: Germany, Italy, the UK and Spain. They have suffered declining ebitda profitability since Read took over in 2018.
Italy and Spain had huge margin contractions. Spain’s was 9 percentage points, a fifth below the 2018 level. In both countries, bidders showed interest. Vodafone chose not to sell.
Read’s departure does not automatically signal a break-up. Chief financial officer Margherita Della Valle takes over on an interim basis. She would be the continuity candidate to take the job full-time — but continuity is the last thing Vodafone needs.
The company trades at half its book value, which points to the need for disposals. A sum of the parts calculation shows that the bulk of value resides in three big markets: Germany, Italy and the UK.
Even using a low enterprise value to ebitda multiple of six times for Germany and five times for the others, these three could be worth €47.3bn, thinks Numis. That is half of group enterprise value today.
Selling off Spain, smaller European markets plus Egypt and Turkey might raise €17bn. Vodafone could also flog a nearly two-thirds stake in South Africa-listed Vodacom. That might realise another €10.5bn. Vodafone could halve its net debt, which is at present €45.5bn, leaving plenty for a shareholder payout.
For the first time in a quarter century, the shares are persistently trading at less than a pound. Scale has failed to generate value. Van Boxmeer needs to install an outsider chief executive who will pursue focus while dismantling a bureaucracy that is now obsolete
"you also have the huge problem of Competition Law when anyone mentions the likes of European mergers"
That's why I thought about US companies without competition overlap. The speed of Read losing the CEO position and going into an advisory role in the New Year, has really started my Spidey sense tingling. The more I think about this, the more I'm convinced there's more to it than share price performance and more likely related to something big in the pipeline.
Market still has plenty of PUT Options contracts at 100p - dated for December exercise
They have bet the sale of shares at 100p thinking the market price will still be below that by the exercise date
https://www.eurex.com/ex-en/data/statistics/market-statistics-online/100!onlineStats?productGroupId=9772&productId=56178&viewType=3&cp=Put&month=12&year=2022&busDate=20221202
Last weekend must have been a round the clock race to negotiate stuff with major shareholders and to prepare and draft the market press release.
Must have been one of the most testing weekends for Read - professionally and privately.
An activist must have played a role for sure.
Poker chips can you list what they should sell off? Italy?
I think VOD has to streamline itself first.....there are plenty of bits of VOD that a potential buyer may not want ....
you also have the huge problem of Competition Law when anyone mentions the likes of European mergers .... would take a long time to get any go-ahead ..I suspect..and in a different form than any original proposal
Oh Gutterboy. Of course being bearish on a stock is not whinging. I have many times welcomed bearish posts on here as I like a balanced view. What I don't welcome, are whingers. It might help if you read my posts properly , before responding, that way, you might make more sense. Good luck with that one?
"I wonder if Amazon would be interested, as a logical next step to their world domination."
Probably more chance of that, than Narcus's suggestion of Etisalat making a bid. I can see why he mentioned Etisalat though, with Atlas 2022 Holdings Limited owning 10% of Vodafone's stock, so Etisalat already indirectly own 10% of Vodafone.
I wonder if Amazon would be interested, as a logical next step to their world domination.
The article is 3 years old but the point is still relevant
https://www.trustedreviews.com/news/3820370-3820370
I would have though Etilsalat will come in for the remaining 90% at some point
"Who can Vodafone merge with? Orange in france?"
Orange crossed my mind as a possible European company, but I'm not sure where Orange's businesses may compete directly with Vodafone's, that's why I thought of US companies, like AT&T, or Verizon. If it was Big Tech, Apple or Google may be a possibility, of course all this is just speculation.
Who can Vodafone merge with? Orange in france?
"Takeover is definite within the realms of speculation"
Anyone who thinks my post about a possible merger/takeover for Vodafone is too speculative, look back at Vodafone's takeover of Cable & Wireless Worldwide. The timeline and events leading up to that takeover is interesting:
Gavin Darby
Vodafone PLC CEO, USA, Africa, China, Africa. 2004 – 2008.
Vodafone PLC Director, Asia Pacific - Middle East. 2008-2010
Vodafone/C&WW
15th November 2011, Announcement. Vodafone executive Gavin Darby drafted in to replace Pluthero as C&WW CEO
July 2012 Vodafone takes over C&WW
So, Darby started at C&WW late November and C&WW was taken over by Vodafone within 6 months; That was VOD taking over C&WW and shows the sort of timelines and events shaping my current thinking.
" otherwise why didn't they just keep Read in place until a new CEO is found? "
They may well be doing that Fleccy .... Margherita Della Valle wants the job ...plus the recent NED Stephen Carter..so it may all be decided internally before April 2023 anyway....possibly up to MDV to show she is up to it from now until then ...in her hands to get the support of the main shareholders .....
Takeover is definite within the realms of speculation
Being bearish on a stock is not whinging Danny boy.
It just means that you think it will go down.
Rob. As I have said many times, I am happy to leave it to those who know what they are talking about, Very good post from Gary by the way. I thought one good thing though, it would stop all the whingers on here, but so far I'm not convinced. Even Mikey doesn't seem very pleased, still going on about ski slopes? There is no pleasing some, once a whinger, always a whinger. What do you think rob, Good news, let's hope so. So what is going replace the sack Nick mantra? Sack ???? Only time will tell. Have a good one.
Thanks "MikeM14" for your answer regarding dividends - It seems to encourage trading a share though rather than investing in it long term for the dividend. There will undoubtedly be opportunities to dip in & out of shares then back before the Ex Div date.
I've just got back in and had some thoughts while I was out and was looking at starting a thread titled Merger/Takeover, but I can see that Takeover's already mentioned in this thread, so I'll share my thoughts here.
What if a takeover/merger is already been agreed in principle?
Read is due to step down at the end of December but will remain in a consulting role until the end of the tax year.
One possibility is that a merger announcement comes along early in the New Year, with an announcement that the CEO of the other company will be named as the CEO of the combined company; Read will get a big consultancy fee for managing the Vodafone side of the merger, with Margherita Della Valle dealing with the day to day running of the Vodafone, during the due diligence and approval part of a deal.
Speculative, but makes sense to me, otherwise why didn't they just keep Read in place until a new CEO is found? It could be Read is making way for the other guy, so there's no battlelines drawn down the road.
It would have to be a big company, maybe one of the big US Telecom companies, or possibly a big tech company looking at moving into the Telecoms space. This is how rumours start lol.
Careful what you wish for. The next one can’t do much better.
The chairman reveals the boards attitude in congratulating Nick for unlocking value of Towers. Selling a key asset essential to your businesses operation is just desperate. The chairman, the board, and investors are just asset stripping to give themselves a few more divs before there is nothing left. The board is now hunting for someone to strip assets faster.
If the new CEO comes in, cancels divs, buybacks and asset sales, streamlines staffing in uk and Germany and tells those operations to get their heads down and try harder on profitability, I will be impressed and may invest, but I doubt it.
Farewell Nick. Enjoy the gardening.
They could sell of Vodacom and merge it with orange Africa or something