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Vod closing Sp 8th Dec
Tars 83.14p
Talatum 73p
Paul30 73.75p
Added to list Entries by 12pm Mon Atb
73.75 for me please
Thanks
Three years after completion, Vodafone will have the right to acquire CK Hutchison’s 49% stake in MergeCo
(“Call Option”), and CK Hutchison will have the right to sell its 49% stake in MergeCo to Vodafone (“Put
Option”
"£4.3 billion debt from Vodafone"
"£1.7 billion debt from CK Hutchison"
"Vodafone UK and Three UK are contributed with different debt amounts at closing to achieve a 51:49 ownership split (no external debt)"
"Initial debt contributions to be ~£6 billion"
"Financial effects Leverage neutral + FCF accretive from 4th full year"
https://investors.vodafone.com/sites/vodafone-ir/files/2023-06/vodafone-uk-and-three-uk-investor-presentation.pdf
73.00 for me please
83.14 please Monsieur Roofer.
Vod closing Sp 8th Dec
Doyen Dan 74p
Newsid 74.30p
KiwiTwo 77.80p
Exil 71p
Roofer 72.40p
List so far Entries by 12pm Mon Atb
How will the debt be restructured when the merger with three finally happens. I know the debt will be reduced by then but tiwill still be high. I was looking on dividendmax and Vod has always paid a dividend even thru some of the bad times so im confident on future dividend payments and hopefully a proper rise in share price?
Hopefully an announcement re Italy sale due soon. Payment down of a further chunk of debt.
I'm confident that Vodafone wont go bust, I'm on the fence as far as the dividend sustainability's concerned. The £20k top up was all about reducing my average cost per share, the dividend yield came a very distant second in my thoughts.
On the Working Capital vs Free Cash Flow chart I only went back to H1 2022, but it gives a clear picture of the fluctuations in Working Capital and its effect on FCF; If FY24 plays at the same as previous years, then the deducted Working capital should be reinserted into the figures with a subsequent rise in the FCF at year end.
The second chart shows the key figures relating to EBITDAal, FCF and Net Debt. The chart goes back to FY15/16 and nicely shows the relationship between acquisition's, disposals and Net Debt, note the increase in Net Debt with the Liberty acquisition in FY19/20 and the reduction in Net Debt with the disposals last year in the FY22/23 figures. Taxation and interest paid/received are pretty much stay unchanged year on year adding up to a deduction of around €2 to €2.5 Billion per year. Free Cash Flow correlates with Spectrum and Licence's, so in years where Vodafone have to pay out a lot for spectrum/Licence's it shows in the Free Cash Flow figure. The biggest year on year deduction from EBITDAal is Capex, so if Vodafone can find ways of reducing that it'll feed into the FCF and Net Debt figures. Here's the spreadsheet showing the yearly figures, it has three sheets, accessible by clicking on the three tabs in the top left of the sheet, the three tabs are Vodafone Financials, Cash Flow and Working Capital vs FCF. I have no idea what effect the disposals will have on EBITDA, FCF and Capex, so it'll be interesting to see what comes of the changes. I'm not an accountant, so if there any on here I'd welcome their opinions.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vSNxkKmgR2PzSL1NH5uvhJAIl6TyUm-PpH2hChEFWELeB8mLB-V562E7qRdDL0lOSa8NyAUBbokBjVp/pubhtml
Fleccy you must be confident you splurged £20k this week on vod?
The big question mark with Vodafone is will the dividend be maintained? The finances are super hard to understand, with things like working capital deducting from the half year free cash flow and then adding back into H2/FY free cash flow:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vSNxkKmgR2PzSL1NH5uvhJAIl6TyUm-PpH2hChEFWELeB8mLB-V562E7qRdDL0lOSa8NyAUBbokBjVp/pubchart?oid=642584807&format=interactive
The chart below shows the FY key figures affecting Net Debt and Free Cash Flow:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vSNxkKmgR2PzSL1NH5uvhJAIl6TyUm-PpH2hChEFWELeB8mLB-V562E7qRdDL0lOSa8NyAUBbokBjVp/pubchart?oid=325944045&format=interactive
Much will depend on the effect of recent disposals and the possible disposal of Italy.
Don’t forget most are not getting 11%
Their average is probably into the £s
Can I have 77.8p this week please.
Thanks Roofer.
Amazing how a few glasses of whiskey (or jug) can help you predict the sp!
More optimistic about next week though. Hoping for a Santa rally.
I'll go for 74.3
Cheers
Pickedpeck: mainly a VOD problem in my view.
Lots of debt, CEO and strategic plans not inspiring.
Poor customer service as per my own experience on and off over many years.
Having said that, possibly a very good buy at this level. New CEO and/or demonstrated real change/improvement very much needed!
Ive seen many posts over the years saying vod divi nothing to do with share price but completely sustainable because......
Would one of the experts care to explain.
Its cayse the share price has fallen that the divi... pence as percentage of share price seems high. If vod was valued at 130 div would be 5.5 pc for example.
So if in vod for income, and if never sell, you are getting 10pc. So everything depends on divi being kept at this level.
You dont even need a rising divi as 10pc is a return plus inflation beat all in one.
It seems to beat recommended funds as well, as cty, 3 or 4pc divi and capital price lower than many years ago.
Vod closing Sp 71.67p
Newsid 71.5p winner
KiwiTwo 75.9p
Doyen Dan 74.92p
Exil 73p
FredRubble 69.69p
XxxAccount 72.50p
SteveBT 71.94p
Paul30 76p
Tars 83.14p
Roofer 72.45p
Atb
I agree with everything you've said, but VOD is already listed on the Nasdaq under the ticker NASDAQ: VOD.
There are a lot of people slating Vodafone, but any company that can generate more than £3Bn FCF must have something going for it.
So is the drop in VOD price due to the company performance or due to major cash outflow from the a London exchanges? Several companies are using outflow as a reason for their poor share price performance this last 12 months. Some are taking action and either dual listing or looking at changing listing location.
The reasons behind the outflow are not clear, but possible candidates include overall higher tax burdens, Brexit and trading barriers, overall state of UK economy, inevitable Labour next election win, dire Tory mismanagement of the economy, or just that there are better prospects elsewhere than in the exchanges of our sometimes tawdry little island. Whatever the reason the babies are going out with the bathwater with PEs in lownsingle figures, double digit yields and ROCE promises in the 20s and above.
The outflow of cash on the London exchanges is significant enough to have gathered a momentum of its own. A few lifeboat companies are still doing OK, UK money has to go somewhere, but those with any questions over debt, earnings, market position or just general mood music are being punished.
Would VOD be rated higher if it was listed in NY, on the NASDAQ or elsewhere?
Rob. Fleccy, wasn't that the name of the band leader on the Titanic? No, can't be? Vodafone is unsinkable, I think? Happy monday.
Hi Fleccy, yes i totally understand those options, it's just a shame this share has put us in this situation though, and if you've got money to invest it's always a difficult decision where is going to be the best place to invest it for the best return, I thought my last top up here was a bargain at 86p, let's hope this bugger can turn around and reward us, I know what Dan will say that's stay positive, difficult sometimes though, i don't want to sell any of my shares for under a £1 and thankfully i'm in no hurry to sell, so let's see what 2024 will bring us
Rob, if Vodafone goes bust and I lose all my capital then I'll hold my hands up and say it's a bad investment, we're not there yet. I did have high hopes for India, which turned out to be a huge disappointment and I didn't agree with their purchase of the Liberty Global assets in Germany and Eastern Europe, but we are where we are. My choices are to sell up completely, turn my paper loss into a capital loss and invest elsewhere in the hope my new investment choice compensates for my Vodafone loss, meaning VOD was a bad investment, or I could keep doing what I've been doing; Keep collecting the dividends and reinvesting them elsewhere, or on this occasion topping up Vodafone and significantly reducing my average cost per share and keep collecting dividends as long as they continue. Whether or not Vodafone is a bad investment depends on the final outcome, If VOD eventually climbs back to £1.60, or £2, then I'll be sitting on a substantial paper gain and I'll be able to say it was a good investment if I decide to sell at that point.
71p for me please Bob
Up 2% tonight on the NASDAQ, so far. Could this worm 🐛 be finally about to turn? We can only hope and pray. It's not like Margherita or the BOD ever try to talk it up or anything. Stoney silence seems to be the norm from VOD. Maybe large dollops of patience will eventually pay off here!