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I assume its ok to discuss vod technicalities on this board, most posts seem to be predicting the price with no research, if its still ok, does anyone know if vod idea will contribute to vod share price ?
Im finding it difficult to understand what they are doing now due to their new words.... vrac vram rac etc!
I was once taught the acronym kiss... keep it simple stupid!
Its beginning to seem to me that the high div cos lgen aviva vod etc dont appear to have rising share prices like rroyce tesla nvidea... though its difficult to decide if vod is a 10pc divi utility, or a high tech go get co. Amazing its dropped from 230 to 73.
Price appears to be rounding out a base here , will give it a couple of months to confirm , good luck all
It’s stands on the balance sheet at zero. What’s everyone’s thoughts if it goes crazy, will they reintroduce a value in the group?
"Rob, good post, there is far more to making money on shares than just being a good accountant. No dissrespect to fleccy, but he sometimes sounds like a horse race gambler,who is an expert on race horse form, but can't understand why he is losing money. "
I don't bet on horses and a horse race ends when the leading horse crosses the finish line, betting on stocks is like an infinite race where the finish line moves and is determined by a number of variables. I don't lose money until I sell my shares, a paper loss isn't a capital loss.
As far as understanding Vodafone's accounts, it's about understanding the company and having an overview of where the debt comes from and how Vodafone balances its books and maintains the dividend.
Take a look at this chart:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vSNxkKmgR2PzSL1NH5uvhJAIl6TyUm-PpH2hChEFWELeB8mLB-V562E7qRdDL0lOSa8NyAUBbokBjVp/pubchart?oid=325944045&format=interactive
It shows how the debt increased during FY19/20 coinciding with a large acquisition, so you can look back at the results for that year and see what happened; Then there's the disposal in FY22/23 that reduced Net Debt. What's also obvious is that the EBITDAal has been pretty flat over the years, as has Capex. By looking at various factors it gives an insight into understanding the company you're invested in.
Good spot Roofer61 and a bit more progress on business , now we could see the SP start to move higher.
The trouble is I don't think jax has any mirrows in his house, otherwise he would see he has egg all over his face regarding any share price and he doesn't know it and that's why he keeps coming back with the same remarks.
Jax you say that all the time, and 60's coming blah bla blah. We wait patiently but so far you have been consistently wrong.
The 1st of September won't change anything about that.
Vod the dog now in reverse
The last few days were a blip
Rob, good post, there is far more to making money on shares than just being a good accountant. No dissrespect to fleccy, but he sometimes sounds like a horse race gambler,who is an expert on race horse form, but can't understand why he is losing money. If only it was that easy, we would all be accountants. Your mate Nick Read I think was a good accountant, he didn't go down that well? But of course fleccy is right by saying it is all very very complex.
Fleccy, there has been plenty of accountants invested here over the last 5 years, and most of them as far as i know have lost money here just like everyone else, if you lose more on your capital than you get back on dividends, it's pretty obvious it's been a bad investment, the only question now is can we recover some of them losses from this current awful share price, hopefully we can get back a£1 at least without having to wait another 5 years
It's seasonal correction time and I'm ready to pick up some cheap shares mid October.
Although I won't be buying Vodafone.
"A mystery how this dogshxt is still above .70, would think the usual Sep/Oct melt down should fxck it up properly down to where it needs to be….sub .66 ( yes I’m shorting it with July 2024 puts )"
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No wonder you sound stressed. It takes a lot of illegal drugs consumption to arriving at a decision to short one of the most undervalued shares on FTSE. I am sure the market will sober you up soon enough.
It is all about Etisalat. They own ~15% of Vodafone and their immediate publicly announced intention is to increase their holdings to ~20% in the next few months. There is a real possibility they may bid in totality for Vodafone at some point.
A 15% ownership positions then as the leading candidate for a takeover.
MDV is making some major structural changes at Vod with Etisalat is looking over her shoulder as a "co-owner." Will the dividend increase or decrease? Etisalat has a major say. Should Vod sell Spain or Italy? Etisalat has a major say. Who should be on the board of directors? You get the idea.
A takeover would give Etisalat a strong position in Africa. If you look at a cellular map Vod and Etisalat ownership of African assets compliment each other competitively. It also diversifies UAE holdings away from oil and gives them a major position in numerous telecom markets.
MDV needs to get the share price up through disposals so if Etisalat moves for a takeover they get a good price for Vod holders. Conversely, a much higher share price could make it more expensive for Etisalat to attempt a taker over. I estimate the fair price to be over 2.5 times the current share price presently. If Vod sold off their operations they could conservatively get somewhere in the area of 550 billion pounds. There is a lot of value here and a lot of money for shareholders to be had.
Jax, you will be wrong again, as usual. Not worth listening to and just embarrassing.
What happens in the sp in the next few weeks and months matters not to most of us anyway.
We just collect the ample divi and wait patiently.
The reversal now starts from the latest mini resurgence
Vod is junk
A mystery how this dogshxt is still above .70, would think the usual Sep/Oct melt down should fxck it up properly down to where it needs to be….sub .66 ( yes I’m shorting it with July 2024 puts )
Nice cheap and tasty soup stock to hold through the coming recession.
Much better than this Vodafone junk.
Lse2000. So how about something interesting from you then, instead of just boring us with your timewasting post?
Mole_man, clearly Vodafone wont grow revenue much from here, they need to focus on debt and capex reduction in my opinion.
Capex is clearly the largest deduction from EBITDA and the largest reducer to Free Cash Flow, followed by Spectrum and Licences in FY23, but that may reduce in years to come. On a yearly basis Interest received and paid is another significant reducer, around €1.1 Billion per year currently ; Dividends are separated from Free Cash Flow and accounted for as a deduction in the Net Debt calculation.
The Vodafone UK/Three merger, should it be approved, will initially impact the Revenue and Net Debt figures, and if I'm reading it correctly Vodafone will eventually take full ownership by allocating new Vodafone shares to Three's owners.
Vodafone is quite a complicated beast, maybe a thread should be dedicated to the Financials so they can be discussed properly? There may be a few accountants who read these threads, I'd be interested to read an opinion from someone who actually knows what they're talking about, I'm not an accountant so I don't include myself in that.
Looks like LSE need to change this to Vodafone prophecy discussion only ... All filled with same boring and timewasters prophecy discussion. LOL!
What value the big money assigns to VOD when they return to desks is really going to rely on what earnings growth rate they can plug into their DCF models.
VOD really need to show how earnings can grow. A one hit from inflationary price increases won’t convince. The big money will just worry they will lose market share.
The value they assign also depends on what bench they compare to. The risk free return from bonds and other sources has risen considerably. They will want a handsome margin of safety to hold VOD.
Just trying to explain the apparent lowly SP may not be that low when compared to alternatives. A key reason why big money is not piling in driving up the SP.
VOD need to prove a high earnings growth rate to convince price moving buyers.
1.01
Vod closing Sp 29th Dec
Uncle Doug 80p
Added to list Entries close 1st Sept
Atb