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Lancebombariar pretty much agree .. the whole historical journey has certainly given me an in-depth background too which otherwise would be hard to comprehend coming in fresh .
Agree totally and your position pretty well reflects mine and I suspect a large number of long term holders . In conviction terms ( always a perilous position ) I believe there is and should be a responsible provider of financial services to people who cannot access responsible credit facilities . The market is there and I believe our government has a responsibility to assist in this area . Credit is hard~wired into the worlds financial structure . VAN I believe can provide this and to be fair Provident in the old days could as well (with some reservations ) . The moral case is strong too in the sense that ethical credit challenges the cowboys and illegal money lenders who inhabit this space . VAN has a really good CEO and the staff in both Bradford and Newcastle are excellent . I honestly believe that long termers will be rewarded once all the spivs are ejected from this investment . Fingers crossed .
Franalex , i’am in exactly the same position as you and mentally have written off 100% of my original investment from many years back . Now I see this as an opportunity with a big potential upside if they can get it even half right. Looking back in the cold light of day the Government effectively wanted to close down the Sub Prime lending Market hence that led to the painful reality that Provident was pretty much down and out, the bit in the middle is irrelevant now.
No. Small part of my portfolio but 95.4% down. First, and at the time unexpected drop was massive shortly after I bought based on “financial expert” and press recommendations plus accounts that did not tell a full story. Thought it might rebound but didn’t and it has been followed by several other big drops. Took the view that once 50% down may as well hang in which was a mistake but no point bailing out now. Have followed this board for years and there are always individuals calling the bottom based on absolutely no financial logic.
Franalex why invest ( assuming you are ) it must be playing havoc with your well being .
Bad news and problems emerging out of the blue or of far greater magnitude than anticipated have been synonymous with this business for years and just when you think things can not possibly get worse; they do.
"could go under", of course anything can happen, but unless the auditors, management and accountants have all been lying or blissfully unaware the balance sheet is pretty rock solid now. It take a monumental increase in default rates to imperil Vanquis now, that or huge deposit flight risk. Both seem incredibly unlikely as Vanquis now has £750 M at BoE and Im sure BoE would lend against the secured loan portfolio if anything insane happened. Also very short duration book so no interest rate risk really. IMO they've just lost control of costs, if they deliver on the promise of going from 60% cost:income to 40% then easily see a rerate here, as thats potentially at least £50 M cost savings. Obviously near term catalyst is the resolution of the CMC problem, hopefully in the interim statement we can see more clarity about the cost impacts.
“All about delivering” . It has been for years, endless new strategies and just patently unable to turn it around. Could recover, could go under, could be acquired, anybody who thinks they know what will happen is foolish.
Franalex what’s the point harping on about the share use to be £35.
That business model is now defunct.. dead
Door step lending doesn’t exist., that’s how they turned in the profits.
This is in many ways a start up with baggage.
Even from there in house Brokers state .. they only expect the SP to rise once the Market has confidence that the business is profitable. So Now It’s All About Delivering.
Well, I have read again the reaults published end of march and they said in the second half of the year they turn it prom loss position yo profit of £30 mil. But they also mentioned the release of some money set aside. So hard to know wheather they are making money atm from operations. I guess thats why the SP is so low because untill investors see that the conpany is making money again this isn’t going up anytime soon.
On the basis this share has fallen from over £35 to just 48p, anything can happen. People have been predicting a bounce back all the way down. Just pure speculation now.
Agree Rizzel. firstly hope some settlement news around CMCs can be sorted. Every day costing the company lots of money in complaints (complaints costs including FOS case fees (charge £750 per case). From the interview last time, I understood the provisions set aside for complaints is around £30-40 millions a year... which is significant on earnings.
After so many shocks with this share over last four years or so, I am hoping for a bit of a good news. But atm it doesn’t look like there is much confidence in this turn around. Like the rest of you I can only hope that the new management is not hidding anything from us and this is not going nose dive even further.
Peterr … Glad there in your Top Drawer not the Bottom.
Thanks Peterr
Tide turn, successful injunction to stop frivolous legal claims, write off of credit card debt for this FY not as large as the accounts forecast, trading update showing the app is delivering increased engagement and revenue, a few more of the board buy in, staff reduction and offshoring beats budget again. CEO doesn't seem the type to report rubbish so at least updates should hopefully be able to be taken at face value. In my top drawer, but still adding a few on the drops.
PottyTime … as my old mum used too say patient is a virtue but sometimes investing tests one’s resolve.
Bottom drawer it is then.
Hi Pooks:
Before the car finance stuff hit the fan a few months back, we were struggling to get above 136 approx . When it dissipates in I guess about a year or two (!) we should (according to Newtons classical universe) see the business improve its attractiveness to longer term investors. A divi, even a small one should really add a boost.
Meanwhile, as I've said some time ago, it's a bottom draw 'er for me (I don't have a cellar). GL
Fellow investors when will the tide turn or at least stabilize ?? Only positive thinkers please .
Sorry, that is a bit over my head, but if neither the BOD, nor LTH's would benefit from it, then it sounds like it is DOA.
With my average, I would happily take that figure though, FWIW :)
Just a thought, wouldn't it now be in the best interest of shareholders for management to put the loan book and retail deposits into freefall and hold both to maturity, which is average 2 years for both loans and deposits. After that return all capital to shareholders. With the ECL provisions already taken it seems like the tangible equity would be a good proxy for remaining funds of around £400 M , therefore a return of £1.50 + to shareholders in 2-3 years. Its not much for LTH but around 3x current SP. I understand not rly in management interests to be out of a job, but could shareholders feasibly do this at AGM vote?
I am going to commit the cardinal sin of saying that the SP is doing very nicely today, given we are ex div...
I will kick myself on your behalf if this comment ages poorly :)
I totally agree, the MMs are not stupid and they had their own reasons to increase the share price on that day. I made an extra £160, not big bucks but better than nothing.
I would have thought the MMs aren't that stupid. surely they should look at the buy volume before offering big bucks for your 20,000 shares.
Pooks. You can manipulate the share price but you have to pick the right time to do it. The best time to do it is when there aren't that many trades taking place and the spread is wide. I've only tried it once and it worked. I had 20,000 shares that I wanted to sell. I purchased another 2,000 and split the trades by 20 x 100 forcing the price up during the day. I then sold the 22,000 shares and made a bigger profit than if I had sold the 20,000. I think a lot of this goes on and I've seen many trades where single shares are repeatedly bought or sold moving the share price either way. On that day, I bought 2,000 and sold 22,000 and the share price was still up. It's the amount of trades that take place, moving the share price rather than the value.