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We are days away from new Portland oil, fantastic.
So what happens then, does the rig move on to HH3 or ?
Are we not drilling the kimmeridge horizontal next ????
That was the plan but as I pointed out yesterday the latest RNS says:
"The EWT, which will include the use of a British designed high-capacity/high-rate downhole electric pump or "ESP", is planned over a minimum 90-day flow period, following which HH-2z and HH-1 will be retained and converted into
long-term oil production wells."
No mention of a side track .
They may be over budget for 2019, they may want not want to risk their production well at HH1 until they have more confidence in HH2z production, or a load of other possibilities (Sanderson my just have forgotten to put something in in his excitement - it happens...).
My question tho is if they have 90 day EWT on HH2z where is the rig going? It's not needed for the EWT as its an expensive piece of kit to keep on stand-by. Time will tell.
Looking at latest Kimmeridge production figures I think SS wants to leave it on long term test for as long as he can.
I’d expect the rig to move off - probably to WN for UJO.
RNS comma seem to indicate a 90 day period of EWT and continued production from the vertical.
FWIW, I think the horizontal is expected to deliver better flow rates than previously thought - because of the saturated cores and the lower pressure depletion.
DYOR. Holding here for the CPR and flow rates. Late January re-rate for me will do just fine.
Mirasol
They may know that HH1 vertical well will produce 1000BOPD when not under test conditions from KL3 & 4 combined.
The other reasons may be that it is the only Kimmeridge producer at present which the market sees.
UKOG may want at least HH4 drilled before doing the HH1 sidetrack or maybe if it is necessary after HH6 depending on the production rates & any possible future additional production allowence that may be granted.
That way it retains the current production from HH1 & aims to get all 6 wells drilled, tested then put on a gas to wire at the same time.
Last November they let the dogs loose on KL3 and it flowed naturally at an initial metered sustained natural flow rate of 771 barrels of oil per day ("bopd"), with a maximum recorded half hourly rate of 902 bopd. The average sustained daily rate over the full test period was 342 bopd.
In late November KL4 gave a maximum half-hourly metered rate of 584 barrels of oil per day ("bopd") and at an average sustained daily continuous rate of 300 bopd over the subsequent week.
In January the maximum commingled rate achieved was 525bopd. The sustained daily rate over the subsequent week averaged 303 bopd.
I think HH1z has had a rethink... leave HH1 producing
Get all the permissions sorted and drill HH3 horizontal into the Kim ...after getting detailed core samples
However... if, and I do mean if..
if we are filling 16 tankers a day from HH 1&2 why would you ecpxpend the money at this time on HH3? It would be good business sense to wait until permission to expand the numbers of lorries or hh1&2 has depleted a little.
Spend the money on other projects like dunsfold, iow, A24
Sanderson has been very careful not to over produce from the Kimmeridge - I suspect they still have a lot of questions to answer and who in their right mind would risk bringing in the water right now?
Personally I'm happy with a few months of steady production - maybe we'd even see the back of these constant dilutions..........
Tony you are spot on here. SS has been very conservative with his numbers and this has helped to get the planning. Why drill more holes than you have planning to produce from? I'm sure that with a safe record fo 16 tankers per day this can be increased gradually to a point where a pipeline make sense.
I'm wondering about the decision not to drill the last 500ft. If SS is confident that this would not pay off economically, what does that actually mean? Does he think he can fill 10 tankers a day from HH1 and HH2z? If there is no need to drill the last 500ft, is there any need to drill HH3 at all?
Unusual, isn't it?
One is so accustomed to SS taking every precaution with his plans and yet, here, he's prepared not to drill the last 500ft.
"I'm wondering about the decision not to drill the last 500ft"
There could be a (bad) technical reason - e.g the horizon was beginning to get deeper than prognosed, or the "sweet-spot" was disappearing, or the rig was having problems drilling on at a reasonable rate, or they were having problems getting the cuttings out - these are all issues with horizontal wells.
However lets assume things are fine - the reservoir engineers will calculating just how much each foot of the well can produce for a given drop in pressure. If the section near the "heel" is really good they'll get a great deal of oil from there and less and less from the "toe" or end of the section. You'll get it eventually but that might be years away. You don't want to drop the pressure very much unless you really have to so the amount you're producing is a function of the desired pressure drop and the size of the pipe etc. It may well have been a waste of time and cash (for now) to keep drilling.............
The next wells may (or may not ) be longer or shorter than the 2z - depends what they encounter - it's not an exact science by any means.
I don't think technical necessarily means bad just uneconomical / not worth the risk.
CaptainStanley hope you are correct on your posts as if we don`t get the volumes up to shift this loan overhang them we are screwed and could drive the SP down as there is only so much investors will take before they give up a lost cause, I think the flow rates will be key to the success of failure of UKOG and they know it and esp when they drill short maybe this is good news or bad news, believe me if it was bad news we wouldn`t be where we are now look at (Eco) so I guess it nothing but speculation by the many to pass time whilst waiting for the main event I just hope it is good !!!!
Phil7390
I don't know exactly but I am hoping to tune in, in a week or 2 to see 10 or so tankers a day.
Mirasol
Hopefully they will have drilled toe up rather than toe down. The onshore horizontals I looked at were toe down.