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The 15,000 buy at 12.33 was me, seemingly had the same idea as a couple of others at the same time. All in on TXP now, this is nuts.
When you was in Calgry a few weeks back telling us all how good the vibes were there an that you was buying at 50p.as it was so cheap I think it was every one from trinty they all made 50% where to now have lost 50%
Touche... I admit I did not see the TRIN proposal coming... But I just see that as something of a sideshow, the value in the core TXP assets is still there.
The value for TXP directors is still there.
They’ve diluted any value for us investors who helped get them there.
PB Once said “Shareholder Value” was what they were aiming to give.
Sorry I didn't mean to come across harsh I was as boyyant as your self .
No one see this coming. short term this has been harsh for TXP .
In the long run it may turn out fantastic .
Gl with averaging down but I think this has further to fall over this quater unless a rabbit is pulled out of the hat.
Or indeed the deal collapses
No prob... happy to wait now for a return here, at least as a producer there is now a floor somewhere, unlike with some of my other, pure exploration oilies...
And the deal is less appealing to TRIN every day, so you never know...
Ss, Wish I could share your enthusiasm. Our wall of cash seems to have turned into a wall trash and I simply don’t understand the timing of to Trinity agreement. Is this why PB flew to London to try and drum upLondon investors ? If so he appears to have not succeeded. Yet another RNS and yet another sp decline.
I sort of feel slightly misled by PB and the company. You can only analyse what is given to you and we do appear to have been focusing on the wrong issues.
PB and is fellow directors have chunks of shares so I can only cling to the hope that what they are actually seeing comes right in the long term.
Be good to get Malcy’s perception on these developments from this current target price of 200 p
Malcy's comment was -
Also the recommended acquisition of Touchstone is in my view going to be a very important deal for TXP, it will as they say ‘provide scale and strength’ along with flexibility almost my exact words from the blog after its announcement. The way that onshore Trinidad works it is crying out for consolidation and now TXP are the big cheese in country they will have more sway where it counts.
Can’t believe drop here , you would of thought a company wanting to make an acquisition would be good news not bad
Level 2 just improved now 2 v 1 tick up coming, is this the last 32p stock every to be seen !!! some say defiantly !
Now 3 v 2 Tick tock ...,last 32p stock ...who want's them !!!!
Ticked up on the offer , just the bid to move now as were now 3 v 2 31.5 /32.5
1 v 2 now after the tick up :)
Just these two left on the offer, 17,500 left ?
32.5 7,500 MREX 15:32
32.5 10,000 SCAP 14:31
2 v 2 - 1 - 2, what are those numbers?
Appreciate if some learned posters here can let me know if I'm on the right track with TXP and its recent poor sp performance. I'm trying to ascertain if it's worth sticking money in here now, or waiting for a bit more of a drop.
From what I can tell the sp malaise is primarily due to the unexpected decline rates. I note Q1 production came in significantly less than Q4 2023 at -18%. Even when accounting for circa 6% downtime that's still quite a production decline rate for just 1 quarter. And then April is at 6kboepd. So are these significant well decline rates the reason why the market is spooked? If so, it certainly appears optimistic mgt reiterating 14.5k boepd 2024 exit production when well decline rates are unknown, but seemingly running at circa 40-50% annualised. Appreciate if someone can let me know if I'm missing something here.
As for the acquisition, surely it's a much better thing for TXP than Trinity now. If it goes ahead it appears to be a very good deal to pick up oil 2500 bopd production, decent cash generation, net cash, decent reserves with exploration upside, plus considerable cost savings. Not sure why people here think it's a bad deal for TXP...? TRIN shareholders will get the equivalent of £15m in share value at current sp, whilst TXP get 20% dilution. So if this goes through I imagine it will be very good for TXP and will provide them with the cash to fix the issues they're experiencing at Casc.
Anyway, let me know if I'm missing something here. Yes decline rates are ugly. And there's a big ? over TXP's ability to pull things off from an operational standpoint. But with this deal and getting to +10kboepd from TXP production assets, this could get very interesting. Thoughts / comments welcome.
I won't claim to be a learned poster, but you have raised a very fair and pertinent question, and not received an answer, so I will try.
1. The declines seem to be what is concerning most folk.
2. Some don't like the Trin deal due to dilution.
3. Are the declines ugly? Coho seems to be levelling off, and the thinking is Cascadura 1 will do the same in time.
4. It must be remembered how good Cascadura 1ST is. Even with decline these are still big numbers and very profitable. Just not as large as folk (including myself) thought given the initial flow rates.
My conclusion, for what it is worth, is that Casca 1 will provide sufficient cash flow to get Cas 2 and 3 on line. Capex to that point is relatively minimal. At that point we should be over 60mmcfd. The two Coora wells should add extra oil production in the meantime. Q3/Q4 will see a step change, even before the Trin merger adds another boost. Lots to look forward to., and undervalued vs peers at the current price on both current and future production. There may be some more selling out of frustration over the next quarter, or maybe this is the bottom. That I don't know.
Hi GGG it's a good post. You probably know more than most holders lol. I think the main reasons for the drop are,apart from the obvious declines in output are
1) Paul Baay has proven to be unreliable in the market with some dodgy claims in the past. People are losing faith in him imo.
2) There are no IIs invested here so it will easily fall (or rise). Actually there is an II that has been selling out. Around 4m left.
3) A typical AIM response to a stock where there is no big news for at least 3 months.
There are 2 important wells to come online Cas 2 and 3 hopefully end September. Baby is obviously telling the market that he expects these to make up for the shortfall. Probably won't but the anticipation will see a big rise. I sold a chunk at a loss the other day as I was expecting a bullish rns so Trin holders will be persuaded to vote for the merger.
I will definitely be buying back though. Gl.
@jane. He's referring to the market makers stacking up on each side of the book. 2v1 meaning stronger support on the bid side.
Thanks Longfell. To save me a bit of time does anyone have the expected/ forecast Casc 2 & 3 production outputs?
Guidance is 20mmcfd per well.
So guidance for Casc 2 & 3 is about 6.6kboepd then...? I'm guessing they're including the extra 2.5kbopd from Trinity to hit their 14.5kboepd exit rate then. With current decline rates they'll need to drill a Casc 1 sized well every year just to maintain production. Doable if Casc 2 & 3 deliver, which appears to be a pretty big 'if'. GLA
There's 4 spots on the B pad being prepared.