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People like Odey's first priority is themselves. He gave millions to the Brexit campaign and then admitted to a newspaper that he was shorting the market in the days running up to the referendum, made a 9-figure profit as I recall. I don't think skirting close to the edge of the regulations (or of normal morality) is an issue for such people.
Small PIs are just pawns in the game of how TSTR will work out in the end. The only thing we need to do is try to figure out what's going on LOL
Out of interest Jolly are you invested here any more?
Will Odey buy back a huge amount of shares just hours before the cancellation!? Makes sense to me. If he buys now the price will increase meaning a TR1 and he will have to offer more for remaining buy out once de listed. If he waits for the last day/hours of trading....
Fireworks next week!!
really?!
I'd be amazed if a v wealthy, successful person like crispin was risking all sorts of grief by not declaring buying for what is to him surely peanuts
Jolly speculator,
It wouldn't surprise me if Odey was buying up cheap stock in the market, but not declaring it due to the impending delisting.
Although big holders are supposed to declare immediately that they cross every 1% boundary, it's long been clear that they can place a big order (buy or sell) and get away without issuing a TR-1 until the full transaction is completed, which might take days or weeks. If Odey has ordered his broker "buy me 10M shares by the 9th of Dec", he might feel that he won't need to issue a TR-1 on the 11th Dec as the company will have delisted by then?
At that point he would be obliged to launch a takeover bid if he buys *any* shares - but he would have enough (75% plus) that it would succeed automatically.
Machiavellian? Yes. Impossible? No.
No advice intended etc
But for us isn’t it irrelevant what price we exit at. I certainly wouldn’t consider selling my shares even if it moved up to 20p just before delist. Even though I’ve picked up some of these cheap shares my average is still around 30p. I am very confident that there will be a very good return for investors that see this out to the end.
Where did Mibo go? Posts seem to have disappeared..
Jollyspeculator you are next.
but there is no evidence of odey buying at these prices is there?
the murky complexity of a delisted share with a savvy majority owner is beyond me
(and I have decades of pretty relevant experience)
I agree, I can’t see or understand why anyone would be selling these shares below 2p so it has to be only buyers from here now. I’m hoping we exit around 9p.
I am tempted to throw another grand at this but not sure.
I hope we are all right in terms of the SP jumping or buyout - will be a tight profit for me even at 10p!
In my opinion I don’t think that he is intending to rob the minority shareholders of their shares. Over the years he has probably advised many of his business acquaintances to invest with him in this project. It just wouldn’t look good if he was to cheat them out of their shares. I do think though that it is in his interests to keep the price low when it delists
As we all know the price is dictated by supply and demand. At the moment there are too many investors including his fund having to sell their stock and not enough new investors understanding the potential. This may change as we get closer to the 10th Dec. Once the stock dry’s up it will move upwards very quickly
The lowest price Odey paid was 10p for 12% stake the rest was much higher, I can’t see him selling out without taking his profit.
I’m trying to understand why he has sold 5% of holding that’s the part I can’t work out, and also why are private investors\companies not snatching this at sub 3p or are they behind closed doors? I’m expecting a TR1 soon with a new holder.
At last some meaningful debate and opinions!!
Fully agree. He voted for the delist. Presumably, he would hope to get an offer away cheaply, if the price is below prospective value... which clearly it is. Cheeky really :)
Purely my view ..
If I was Odey or a major investor, I would be trying to depress the share price as much as possible (delisting is perfect to scare nervous Pi's) so i can pick up cheap stock knowing the "real" MV SP is a lot higher.
Thats what I would do if i was that way inclined!
I’ve got to admit I just can’t work out how this share price is sub 3p, we own 16.3% of a up and running, working and selling super plant worth millions. Yet our market cap has been reduced to£3m from £30m+ just because we are de listing from AIM?
Yet people was happy to find this venture even before the plant was just on paper, now it’s up running and completed we see a 90% loss on share price.
The amount of money this plant is able to make is insane.
In my opinion we will be offered a buy out once delisted from either the Dubai company or Oman government?
I feel lucky my average is 3p here but I feel this is one of those shares that is worth holding out long term for.
Or am I missing something, how are some people valuing this so low??
@TradeHobbs there’s already a telegram group. No need to buy a new phone. See below.
This may help you:
Tri-Star & SPMP Valuation
I previously issued a valuation analysis for SPMP and Tri-Star (see previous posts). Ultimately the fundamentals driving the overall valuation of the SPMP business have not changed, although the investment input required to get the Plant over the finish line have increased as explained above.
Current overall investments by all Shareholders has reached $206 million. In addition there are outstanding bank loans of $57million, to which all parties remain as guarantors (in proportion to shareholdings).
Projected future Revenues (Antimony and Gold ore) by SPMP will be in excess of $200miilion per annum. On a conservative valuation of SPMP at 3 x Revenues then the SPMP Valuation is $600million. In reality once fully commissioned and operational it will literally be a #goldmine# and its valuation should be 5 X revenues or $1Billion per my previous analysis.
Tri-Stars current valuation of Assets comprises its core investments to date of $34million plus its balance sheet Net Assets of $13.7million. This gives Tri-Star a current valuation of $47million versus its current Market Cap of $35million (£28million at end September). That's a 34% premium to the current SP of 30p and should in fact be upwards of 40p.
Once the SPMP Plant is fully operational then we can use the appropriate business going concern valuations above. Tri-Stars valuation in 2021 based on an Operational Plant will be a minimum of 16.3% of $600million or $97.8million. For the sake of brevity lets just round up the numbers and make it a $100million valuation. That is the valuation projected in the next 6 to 8 months. And to put that in £ and pence an SP of 85p.
dyor
Wow Mibo overtime last night and an early start - they must be paying you well !
Ok, that’s your opinion and I have mine.
I personally wouldn’t be invested if I didn’t believe in the fundamentals.
I’m invested here which is why I’m active on this board, what do you gain from being here.
I’m aware this conversation with you is taking up the news feed and will not be responding to you anymore.
I wish you all the best in your investments.
As I mentioned before, this BB will remain with all its content for some time. Another example is Juridica which delisted two years ago and still has all the RNSs and chat etc. Have a look at JIL where I have left a message just now.
It’s not so hard for me to deal with, it’s just it will only be long term holders in the group? Deciding if we want to accept 20p offers for our shares etc.
Yeah but you won’t be in it though.. much better Imo.
I will be creating a WhatsApp group for all people holding after Wednesday to stay in the loop, if anyone is interested. I just need to get a spare phone/sim set up, not sure I want any de-tampers having my personal one.
Just an option.