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In summary:
The post on the bulletin board is very positive about the conservative accounting policies of expensing software development and free cash flow regularly exceeding profits. Cash forecast is £22m as per trading update.
It mentions Tracsis record of exceeding broker expectations. The poster thinks Tracsis will beat the 24.5 EPS broker forecast and that it’s an attractive buy at this price (posted 2 days ago) given its fast growth momentum, quality earnings and possible upgrades next year.
The post is on the public board. Its free to join to access the public board. Another useful source of information/opinions.
Seems to have started. I suspect this may be a bit of adjustment due to some no doubt temporary positivity of the markets generally.
GE17. What's the chat on ADVFN re the accounting issues. I think generally Tracsis try and maintain a clean'ish set of accounts. I only saw one relatively minor issue when they had a largely flat year.
Cash generation is harder to disguise than EBITDA etc?
The new non-executive has impressive experience with major companies both in and outside the transport industry. Tracsis have software/products which could perform across industrial sectors. Another striking strategic addition by Tracsis.
I agree, there should be a small bounce (today’s move?) following the results.
A positive statement confirming a solid start to the year will suffice for me but I back this management Team.
I hope Paul Scott does another interview as it provides reassurance if he endorses the numbers/accounting policies. There are recent comments on the advfn chat board concerning accounting policies and its impact on cashflow.
I hold Tracsis shares. Do your own research, etc, etc.
the Board is pleased to announce the appointment of Macdonald Gouveia ('Mac') Andrade as a Non-executive Director. Mac, aged 42, will bring significant industry experience to Tracsis, having held various senior roles at FirstGroup Plc, Network Rail, Scottish & Southern Energy and National Grid. Mac is also a Director of Hewsand Consultancy Limited and Tudor Close (Bramley) Limited. There is no further information to be disclosed in accordance with the AIM rules.
I suspect there will be a bit of a bounce once the final result results are released in Nov. Though inevitably this will depend somewhat on any other news in the market at the time.<br /><br />Given the relative illiquid nature of Tracsis shares the share price will tend to move more violently than some other shares. <br /><br />Usually Paul Scott of Stockopedia does an interview, so we will see if this happens again.
A £2m contract (not to be sniffed at) is very positive news for the team and a vote of confidence from the client. High levels of contract renewal opportunities do not happen by chance and form part of a forward thinking business expansion strategy by the CEO.
The statement refers to “ Tracsis cementing its position as a valued supplier” and this augurs well for the future.
The fall in the share price looks a tad harsh to me but reflects broader market sentiment towards AIM and an opportunity for profit taking (surely a back handed compliment!).
In the budget, the Chancellor repeated positive news for Travel compensation Services (acquired in Feb 2018).
"The Budget confirms a more streamlined process for compensating passengers affected by rail delays. A one-click delay repay system will be introduced as a requirement for future rail franchises and will be available to those passengers with advance purchase and season tickets."
The Dept. of Transport will apply pressure to the rail companies to improve their delay compensation process. Nowt immediate but more opportunities for TCS.
I hold Tracsis shares. Do your own Research, etc, etc.
Latest RNS says a £2m contract has renewed which is good news. However, does not change outlook for 2018/19.
Shareprice has taken a bit of a caning recent due to the recent stockmarket downturn. Perhaps this was reason that this RNS was released. Still all good news welcome, I guess.
Impressive new product launched by Sep events. Visit Tracsis website, go to - our services, then Sep events website, then Sep news, scroll down the page and look for the Showman’s show section click "SEP unveils TLT at The Showman’s Show" IN BLUE.
I think this new kit will be really attractive to events/companies like Silverstone who manage large volumes of traffic on, and leading up to event days. I wonder if this kit would also be attractive to airports who manage high volumes of daily commercial/operational deliveries (i.e. not passenger parking). New product to offer to existing and new customers.
Also, really good training video showing train drivers (approx. 10 mins) how to record/report incidents/delays. Visit you tube, enter “hub demo driver”.
Results due in a fortnight. Looking forward to updates on progress in the current year & contract opportunities outside the UK.
I am a shareholder. No links to/with Tracsis. As ever, do your own research, etc.
Excellent post GE17. I am basically a fan of Tracsis, in which I have a holding. Its great to have a cost conscious and straight talking CEO rather than a PR agent. Yes, let the number do the talking. Also, I am conscious that they do not want to heavily advertise the margins they make in certain divisions.
I guess they are still a relatively unsung stock, which may irritate the CEO when he has had a particularly good year. But then unless you are a particularly diligent searcher of info, as you appear to be, there is not much else to go on. But maybe that makes it all the more a share which has the potential to surprise on the upside!
Apologies, I did edit the post but that's an F for fail.
Muzzletoff, I agree with your sentiments/comments.<br /><br />With a little digging, I was able to establish that activity across the divisions over the last 12 months was very strong. <br /><br />Agreed, there is always room to improve financial details for investors on any public company’s website but I would encourage investors to use google or visit the divisional websites to see how busy the operating units are across the group. I accept Google can’t give hard financial details across the group but signs of contract wins, promotional activity are very encouraging. I’m not dismissing the importance of the financial details.<br /><br />There is a brief voxpox on audioboom (14/09/18) with Russ Mould at stockbroker AJ Bell talking about Tracsis and its valuation. Tracsis starts at 22.05 (approx 4 mins). For me, Tracsis is a growth stock and justifiably trades at a premium PE. Many investors thought Tracsis was too expensive in PE terms at £3, £5 and now at £7. That’s fine as we are all entitled to our own investment strategy.<br /><br />The CEO is focused on building the business. The CEO is canny, straight talking and careful with money (presenting to investors can be relatively expensive). Profits fell slightly in 2016 and the CEO took immediate action to implement efficiencies and restore margins. I struggle to be too critical of the CEO and management team when you look at their performance over the years. <br /><br />I’m not convinced that the market appreciates how embedded Tracsis products are with train operating companies, network rail, TFL, etc. Tracsis are a key strategic partner for these organisations and will continue to offer new products to improve operational efficiencies.<br /><br />I prefer regular, consistent, smaller contract wins across the broad and these don’t always require an announcement to the stock exchange. For example, the recent contract win by Ontrac on Cross rail offers revenues over 5 years. HS2 is another opportunity for Tracsis. <br /><br />SEP events had a very busy year in managing traffic at outdoor events (Traffic management at race courses, Silverstone, country fairs/events, etc) and benefitted from the good weather over the summer months. <br /><br />There are videos on Youtube (search 1. tracsis canal trust & 2. Vivacity labs ) that gives a good flavour of the use of technology replacing traditional survey methods. <br /><br />Tracsis acquired Travel Compensation Service earlier this year and saw an increase revenues and profile following the timetabling issues across Thameslink and Northern rail. TCS just signed their first partnership with business travel organisation clarity to offer its delay repay compensation service to their clients. After the rail sector, TCS plan to enter the air and ground transportation sectors. <br /><br />I apologise, if the above reads like a party political broadcast on behalf of Tracsis but I'm sharing/sheding light on the strong performance across the group. <br /><br
Good spot.
Overall I agree the trading statement was strong, reflecting some of the hints in the interims for H2 trading.
The CEO popped up on Stockopedia to respond to the analysis by the resident market commentator.
He seemed a bit miffed at the commentary that whilst the results were good and historically progressive, he wouldn't invest at this with the current valuation (about 25 x earning per share).
Looking through some of the posts the CEO made I was a bit surprised that he thought the company should only be valued by the results, and wouldn't be making any investment in seeking to market them.
In a way I respect this. Too many CEO's spin and lose credibility over time. However, I think there is more room for making their website rather more attractive to private investors by having more explanatory materials of company operations. Let's face it, private investors are the ones who move the shareprice on a regular basis in AIM, not the institutions. Also, the CEO and members of the board have exercised options and sold shares into the market, so its in their interests not to be too stuffy about the approach to investor relations.
All that being said Tracsis seem to be in a good place.
Strong results From Tracsis today. All sections growing. Improved cash position by over £6 during the year. This management team deserved a premium in the PE rating due to their consistent over the last 5 years.
Details of new 5 year contract with TFL on the Crossrail line available on the ontrac website:
https://on-trac.co.uk/ontrac-ltd-transport-for-london-five-year-deal/
Looking forward to a trading statement next week, if they stick to their normal timescales.
I am hopeful that this year will look stronger than last year, as it was strongly inferred that H2 was looking good.
If so, I would expect the shareprice to test the high £6+ level again.
Tracsis is a great business and has rewarded Long-term shareholders with a ten-bagger in under ten years. The company manages to produce a decent level of profits and reward shareholders with a dividend, even though it yielded is less than 0.3%. The dividend well covered. The two major acquisitions made last year will continue to integrate into the main business. Despite, Tracsis numerous good traits, we need to look at some negative ones. These include: 1). Falling operating margins, as market valuation has pushed PER to 35 times earnings. Normally, Tracsis�s PER range around 12-16 times during 2011 to 2013, before the shares got �re-rated.� 2). Although it sees costs per employee falling, Tracsis wage �component� is becoming an important factor as it accounts for 55% of revenue in 2016 from 30% in 2012. Apart from the above, I feel shareholders and investors need to account for up to �9m in deferred payments if targets are met in 2018, a potential cash outflow and would halt the growth in their cash balance. At �156m, I see Tracsis�s shares trading sideways for the next 12 months until fundamentals catch up with valuation. For full analysis and charts click http://bit.ly/2hSPlXK If you enjoyed this post, there are other company coverage here http://walbrockresearch.com/home/
Sure they'll be rumours going round the city today am as to who this customer is...a major which it looks like...would re-rate the sp...dyor
I think the key here is the "high degree of recurring revenue" even after the 4 year contract period should everything go successfully. Great news for the future.
Tracsis plc, a leading provider of software and services for the traffic data and transportation industry, is pleased to announce that it has been awarded a significant multi-million pound contract for provision of its key software planning products with a major UK rail operator. The contract will be delivered over four years and includes the renewal of some existing systems already licenced by the customer. Whilst significant for Tracsis, the contract will not have a financial impact in the current financial year (ending 31st July 2017) but helps to underpin our confidence for the future. For reasons of agreed commercial confidentiality the specific customer cannot be named. This award follows a comprehensive procurement process where Tracsis was able to successfully demonstrate the functionality and value of existing software products and new innovations. Assuming the contract is fulfilled on time and to the satisfaction of the customer there should be a high degree of recurring revenue beyond the four year period. Given the size and materiality of the contract, the award represents a step change in Tracsis' ability to tender for and win major technology projects and should pave the way for similar sales in the future with other transport operators both within the UK and abroad. John McArthur, Chief Executive Officer, commented: "We are absolutely delighted to have secured this major contract with a long standing rail customer and look forward to delivering this project in the coming months. The size and scale of the project is significant for Tracsis and represents the wholescale change that UK transport is going through in adapting to the growing operational demands placed upon the network. This win is testament to our team and our product suite and we believe successful delivery of this project will lead to our Enterprise systems being adopted elsewhere in the fullness of time. "
Signicant contract win
Any news on this share?
Trading statement issued 'in line with expectations' H1 results, with a couple of ifs and buts. Profit expected to be shifted to H2; wasn't enough to convince the market. Size of drop isn't at all relative, a snowball has developed.
Was there any reason for this sudden sharp fall ?
Tracsis is a solid well run company. I think that at current levels it represents a very good buy opportunity. The update was good and met expectations
Oversold. Update was no justification for this fall
Well, the market is obviously unimpressed by the latest update. Strange how the SP already dropped in the days prior to the update. Did someone know something in advance? Surely not...