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NAV is 85millions!!
goodwill is 65millions!!
revenue generation is 80mil plus(projected)
borrowings 20mil only.
if anyone think company will have problem restructuring need to have their head checked.
if admin costs and cost of sales managed carefully then will be in profit again!!
dyor
what do you smoke my friend :)) :))
administration?? huge dilution?? lol
when last time it dropped,people were making similar type of posts,and sp done 6bags after that!! lol
right now,company is in a good position and you will soon get the news of debt restructuring!!
which will send the sp higher!!
do i need to use filter here?? haha
Place your bets
Net debt1 as at 31 December 2022 of £17.5m. Mcap £23M. Note in the trading update, no figure was provided for Ebitda, or profit. Assuming that profit is very small, then in November they had £6M cash. If not making a profit, this will be decreasing. We could estimate the cash position by going back to the debt in the interims which was £20M. So if net debt is £17M, then presume they have burn through half the cash, leaving the other £3M. (about £1M per month burn rate).
So here is the investment proposition:
23M mcap buys you a company with further £20M debt, in breach of that debt and has until 31st March to solve that problem. Meanwhile by own admission is not profitable, and running low on cash, with £3M left at best guess.
What do you think the II's and large shareholders are going to do now? They are going to have to sell before this winds up in administration, or huge dilution.
Apparently there is £68M of goodwill here and a further £29M of intangible assets. Other than that, no real assets to speak of. My guess is this goes lower. I think some II's will try and exit while they can. I dont see this coming back now. I think next bump in the road will be fatal here. Should have gone short when my nose was twitching last month.
Expecting some big trades to arrive after hours.
Either someone sold a big chunk or mms trying to trigger someone’s stop loss!!
Hopefully seller clear and ready to move forward from here….
Very strange price action right now…
About 66% of shares are in II’s hands.
Brings more confidence here,and less free float,means it will move quick with even small volume me think.
Volume is increasing now.
Expecting more and more people to buy in as it is oversold and can move lots higher when rerate starts.
Opportunity for LTHers to average down,imo
This will not be here for much longer,dyor
Me too. Just took a starting position of 5000 shares at 26p
Exactly why I go in. Not fussed about the share price over the next few days…. Thinking long term (unless it runs off a lot of buys). Surely big boys will be dipping their toes in at these prices too.
... how bad is it people...? Newbie to this share looking @ lth for a quick analysis... have read rns, and dipped my toe in based on future fundamentals, dont believe there will be a cash raise down here, but clearly market has other ideas... not convinced this will be a quick win, but will correct itself over time.
People need to remove stop losses here,mms seems to be going for that :)) :))
good entry mate.
hoping for a good rerate from here.
30p average , let’s see how it goes
and someone knows that this price is not correct and so loading upp!
look at those 100k shares trades.................
And then tge next sentence is saying
“We are actively engaged with our bankers on appropriate actions.
So they are already engaged with banks and things will be sorted imo
Revenue impacted but not that badly to justify this drop and dropped allthe way from 235p??
They will definitely sort the problem out which they have mentioned in RNS soon!!
“The business also continues to be impacted by the structural and personnel changes implemented at the start of the year and the loss of capability that resulted”
So things will be changed soon and will be improved in coming months!! Imo
24mil mcap?? Bring on the RERATE………
Did you read all the RNS , breach of covenants.
"Given the updated reforecast for Q4 23, the Group is unlikely to pass its debt covenants at 31 March 2023"
Most probably!
RSI is below 20now and expecting a good bounce from this level.
52week high is 235p and currently trading at 27.5p?
Mcap is below 25mil now
RERATE will start anytime………
This roll up strategy hasn't worked out for them, obviously.
To be fair the new CEO and CFO had been buying shares with their own cash at the approximate time Oliver Rigby sold his - I believe they honestly looked at the regained top line momentum and figured they could steer the ship to calmer waters. They undertook a detailed analysis of forecasts and believed in their margin forecast for the remainder of the year and 2024. The margin deterioration has obviously come as a surprise to them. They need to stabilise and repair the staffing situation, which is clearly volatile and tricky to fix. I'm just pleased that the former management are gone.
Just gone on to their website to see who directors are - but you can't even find a list of directors or names in About Us or Investors section. Just a comment on board composition. No names, no mugshots. Unusual.
This is also symptomatic of the acquisition model. Buy too many service business that have little cross-over. Mngt of the businesses don't want to give up control. Problem integrating staff and services. In the short term, results look good, mngt pay themselves shares and bonuses. Then the problems start , but founders have made their money and walk away.
Little wonder they hastily got rid of the 'panoply' name - the original concept - because the collection of businesses was no longer stronger together!
The business model (when it hums) is a cash generative one, fundamentally. Working capital demands are low. Even now they are not hemoraging cash. The issue is their margins have been destroyed by use of contractors and staff walking, so they are not generating cash either. Obviously they need improve margins and generate cash again. As I said, a **** show.
I have 2 shockers of my own on the go. TLY and RBGP. Both good entry points for high risk appetites. I also have MTEC which I think is a very similar business to TPX, lets hope its managed better. I still laugh about Rigby selling those shares, due to strong institutional interest. He pumped then he dumped.
Oh dear SeaTank. That's not a good update. I dont take pleasure in others losses, but I am pleased that I am getting better at spotting these problems. I said in this thread that this is not cash generative. I quite fancied a position here, but not yet. I really do think the debt and cash will be an issue here:
"Given the updated reforecast for Q4 23, the Group is unlikely to pass its debt covenants at 31 March 2023, the next measurement date. We are actively engaged with our bankers on appropriate actions to address this event "
You really cant rule out a placing, and you really cant argue that TPX is cash generative. It has potential, but so do many things.