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Blocklisting Return,,
They have more shares for sell out . what is true value of this share?
Well , if that’s the seller out. Happy days
Wow, breached the 20p line someone just dumped a load at 18.50p. I will be in for a trade at 15p if it gets there.
DYOR
Looks like a huge sell is being worked, can buy it for 20 on H&L. Don't think it is worth a punt as it is a very illiquid share and we do have a few trapped traders like Maqsood
Government entities haven't been the problem here as far as i can see. The issue has been a messed up integration of acquired companies.
Interested to know your thoughts Dartron if TPX can get their banks to agree extensions on the debt and they continue to increase revenue? Where do you see the SP in 6 or 12 months from now?
Christo, I will share my thoughts in a few days after some consideration, but I would say you have overlooked the key metric here. Revenue is not the issue, it is profitability. They wont just be granted an extension for the debt, they will have to re-negotiate it at best, on to a higher rate, so until we know how the debt was restructured its hard to say what effect that will have on profitability. I said earlier, look at the MTEC TU today, the margins in this sector are pretty thin. It will probably bounce at some point, but your just gambling here, also any bounce is going to be a flood gate for trapped traders like Maqsood.
Maybe MTEC is a better buy as it is rising rather than falling, if you want to play this sector. I have minimal exposure to government contractors for the reasons above.
The sells that are dragging this down are really small at times. We’ve seen a 250k buy today and we’ll continue to see big buys. Especially as soon as the sellers gone ….. waiting for TR1s
I wouldn't suggest gamble your life savings on this stock, but in my view the odds of this gamble are very good indeed.
Someone is dumping their holding at any price, probably an institution that cant hold at this market cap level; the board chat is all about bankruptcy; nobody is looking at fundamentals.
I've tried to offer balanced insight having known this company well for a number of years, but been told I'm overly optimistic and this company could be forced into administration at any moment. Well, I simply don't agree and have explained why. Primarily, because the company is not bleeding cash and has levers to pull.
The bottom line for me is that there are too many senior management here with their life savings at stake to let this company spiral into bankruptcy. Several former owners of acquired businesses, two ex executives, current CEO and CFO with skin in the game and much to lose. Don't underestimate the internal will to fix this.
Lol problem is there will be a long list of your "p&d" but regardless you have chosen a wrong share to pump and dump it this time. An institutional seller is selling and you are providing him liquidity to dump
shami89,seen some great posts on arb saying bankruptcy looming in december,lol
it shot up 400% after that!!! hahaha
i am sure you didnt make a penny there,hahaha
and you will be buying here high too,as bank will be agreed for extension soon!!
and ytes,we need a seller here to bring more liquidity as free float is really small.
but right now someone bought 250000 shares and I believe it is director bought some,which brings more confidence!!
ignore the vultures and best to fffffiiiiilllllttttteeeeerrrrr,lol
Agree Sham , should see some TR1s at some point
Looks like an institutional investor is dumping, pretty sure that we have a few stranded traders itching to get out
They will get banks to extend their debt. Banks are very supportive… look at Revb for instance. Absolute mess there with the previous founders but banks still remain supportive.
Interested to know your thoughts Dartron if TPX can get their banks to agree extensions on the debt and they continue to increase revenue? Where do you see the SP in 6 or 12 months from now?
a 250000 share buy,maybe director bought some more??
some vultures appearing here it seems,lol
I know that, hopefully I saved a few armatures a couple of quid.
I have been discussing TPX for over 6 months with Seatank.
Lets watch the dust settle, this is going to drop until the debt is sorted, as the risk just increases until.
Dartron A good couple of posts from you and very informative. maqsood is only thinking about his trade and how to lure people in so he can sell at a profit and sod everybody that gets stranded . newbies beware , plenty of good stocks to invest in and talk of breach of covenants is a BIG RED FLAG. IMO
Looks like you are wasting your time here Darton, fact is Maqsood does not care about fundamentals profit margins, etc. His trick is simple flood the bb with made up bs to lure in other investors and then move on to others.
Looks like maqsood was wrong about his.
Seatank, your comments re bankruptcy are too optimistic. As you said the company can be broken up, so liquidators would step in if the plc was unable to take action. It is going to be hard to over come that debt issue, look at some of the discount placings recently. Also go and read the MTEC TU this morning, very similar business, but look no margin either. I sold on the spike this morning. Look at TLY, another government contractor, now likely being sued. TPX do not have it easy. I think we may be in for a wave of these companies coming unstuck, as the Tories 'blame the private sector' for their failings.
Nice message Seatank. Next top up for me is at 20p , although I don’t see it touching that !
https://www.techmarketview.com/ukhotviews/archive/2023/01/31/tpximpact-revises-down-revenue-and-profit-guidance
Fair assessment
Dartron you don't seem to be balanced here. You will presumably know the CFO invested in 250k shares lately with his own hard earned cash pre-TPX, with the last purchase of 50k being in December. He is a very experienced financial controller from WPP, which itself is a consultancy that also grew largely by acquisition. He knows how to budget and forecast. 250k shares is a meaningful statement, for you to suggest otherwise is ridiculous. The CEO has also invested meaningfully.
All the other business owners have equal incentive, starting with Erick Harris Grant who owns 10% but followed by all the others recently acquired. Trust me when I say "all hands are on deck".
On your comment about bankruptcy, you are foolish to suggest it, that their bankers wouldn't give them a waiver for a period of time given solid top line, little cash burn, and all likelihood of fixing profitability. The bank would receive nothing from administration with no assets. It won't happen. Indeed, if TPX must do so, they would rather shrink and right-size their capability to capacity meanwhile improving profitability. I guess this is partly why they have guided down revenue for this year - better to slow and maintain delivery credibility and profitability. It would also be wise for them to implement contract price hikes or stand back from new projects. There are various levers to pull.
You are a joker mate.
Seen lots of jokers like this in 2020, best thing to do is FFFFFIIIIIILLLLLLTTTTTTTEEEEEEERRRRRRR
July 20 45p and july 21 is 230p lol.
Anyay it is clear what you are after,after your very in depth post saying about company going into admin,hahaha
I have a share price low of 25p on 30th Sept, and a sp high on 13th December at 63p. If you think that is 6 bags, maybe that explains why you are not concerned about any of the other numbers in my post. I think the debt restructuring will at least be difficult for them, and will certainly be on less favourable terms (interest rates Bruv init). If they cant over come this, then yes administration is the next step when the debt is called in and they cant pay it. (that is what happened at 4D pharma for example). The issue is that if there margins are so thin, its not helpful to keep winning new business, I think the adage is a busy fool.
The CFO buying 50000 shares on 5th Dec is pretty meaningless, (£25k at most) and again, if these guys were to do a placing it gives those who should have skin in the game, ample opportunity to acquire it at knock down prices.
Insiders have spent a small fortune buying stock since the previous profit warning, including the new CEO and CFO. The CFO purchased shares even up to 5 December, at >50p! He obviously doesn't think the business is at risk. But, he also doesn't have very good visibility on the business himself even, as his detailed revised budgets were totally missed!
They have been winning new business at a hell of a pace, £41m last quarter and £9m this past month. Top line isn't the problem, obviously! But can they deliver the work in pipeline and profitably?
The problem is staffing issues and staff turnover - this is the **** show. In particular, good people have been leaving and there are too many contract staff!
Also central costs seem to be rising too much, hence gross margin down 3 or 4% but EBITDA margin has collapsed to 3%
In my view these are short term challenges that can be fixed. That said, it's not going to be easy and will take some time. 1. Reduce staff turnover, 2. Reduce contract staff, 3. Improve staff utilisation, 4. Dilute central costs!