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More buying by director(s)?
as some chunky trades went yesterday and one came as late trade today!!
Octopus only had 2.2mil left??!!
as expected mms taking this higher even without heavy volume!! :))
Spiking today but no news??
Great to see buyers coming in to take the sellers out in volume
1.9m shares traded today, which is more than 2% of the shareholder register
threeputt, i can't argue against your risk aversion, as breaking covenant is a serious thing and can spell the end for equity holders. A couple of things to bear in mind though, in this instance. The business is lead by around 15-20 execs who were acquired by the holding company, so the business will be worth zero to HSBC if they force a bankruptcy and full loss to equity owners, as these guys will all walk away. The business only has value being turned around, in my view, even if a trade sale is to be made, ultimately. I would also point out that these people are in the business of making businesses more efficient with technology and systems/processes. I eat my hat if they can't do it for their own business. TPX underinvested in management systems and personnel, we know that, but that is being rectified, which is a key reason for the decline in profitability. As for the HR/fixed cost issue, we know employee turnover is falling, use of consultants is falling, and if they can't improve consultant utilisation in the DX division they will have to either internally shuffle resource to other parts or make layoffs. None of this is rocket science and they are not being squashed by competitive forces - actually their new business trajectory is upwards. In all, the risk is there, perhaps of a capital raise, but in all likelihood they'll squeak through without one. The odds of this gamble are pretty reasonable. Even if they do require a capital raise, in my view it will be small, perhaps £5m, so management can support it, which would be 25% dilution, not nice, but would send the stock upwards as the covenant issue would no longer be an issue. I can't see this going to 1p or whatever to raise capital as those in management who couldn't support such a capital raise would be diluted to nothing and it would be politically unacceptable to do. In short, this is most likely the bottom. And as they say, profit warnings come in threes. This was the third!
So tomorrow we will have last TR1 rns and off we will go. no more big seller on back ground and nothing keep it down forever.
Looks like Octopus is out today!
880000+700000 share trades appeared now.
TR1 tomorrow and no one to stop any rise with people ready to jump in!!
looked at it but decided it's still too risky for me, every chance the bank won't be happy with their budgeting process which they've left somewhat late with the new year beginning very shortly = lack of financial control, might they be stricter regarding a waiver of covenants and maybe call for reducing the debt before allowing a waiver ? = possible rights issue/dilution, I certainly doubt they'll get it for free
Data I'm seeing shows Marlborough Nano Cap Growth fund purchased 800,000 shares in January
SeaTank8300,good to have a poster like you on this board!
You have done really good research!!
Investor relations tells they hope the covenant waiver should come after HSBC receives their reworked cash flow budget for financial year 2024 which is process and will feed into their updated guidance for this coming year's revenue and margin outlook; and also that TPX is hiring circa 70 full time positions this current quarter to replace contractors in areas where contractor use has been too heavy. As the trading update disclosed, importantly, new business has been strong, therefore the focus is on adjusting aspects of their cost base to return to a better level of profitability.
My view: this year has been a disaster with various mishaps and EBITDA margin down to 2% from north of 15%; insider buying suggests confidence they can turn profitability around. Only 3 months ago they were assuming 12% margin was an achievable target for next year. They only require 10% EBITDA margin on £90m revenue to bring them back within the covenant, and indeed even that would place them on an EV/EBITDA of around 4x.
I have brought more today.
Some more decent buys today.
Is another director buying??
Or Lombard buying more??
It has to be done before 31/03/2023.
But were already in talk with them as these things can not be left for the last moment!!
debt restructuring news could arrive at anytime" They will do it but after 30/3/2023 dont expect any news about debt soon .
"debt restructuring news could arrive at anytime" that is exactly what market is worried about. If covenants are being tested then rest assured that financial situation is critical. An institutional seller is not helping things either.
As mentioned in last RNS,negotiations are ongoing and debt restructuring News could arrive here anytime!!
Low volume and people are waiting for news to get in,but people buying with news will be paying much higher as this will gap up with news!!!!!!
Anyone? lol
I am near to my break even as bought lot more below 20.
Now wait and watch me going into profittttttttttttt :)) :))
While you are still waiting for entry,lol
I am sure you didn’t buy below 20 hahahahaha
Maqsood ain't stopping until he breaks even!
Must be imminent surely?
Two directors have bought now,which shows their confidence in deal progressing and ongoing business!!
Octopus is either already out or nearly ou because they just had 2% left on last rns.
Lombard is loading uppppppp!
Drop is overdone and could move quickly even with small volume……..!!
35p before news will be nice to go to previous level and above……..
Dyor
So we have a multitude of buyers at this level:
Private
Directors
Institutions
As stated if Octopus are selling down they will be out very quickly. It's one of those opportunities that come around once in a blue moon to buy a profitable company at a fraction of it's value.
As expected,another buy from neil gandhi, holding 10.22% now!!
Octopus was below 2% on Wednesday.
If they sold 1% yesterday and are planning 1% today then they will be out soon
Or maybe they done and do not want to sell now?
In any case a push is coming towards north from here,also mms is slowly taking it higher……….
35p before news of restructuring??
Bring it on! Dyor
Yes Maqsood
Also been adding NANO ( $150mln+settlement case due to complete next few days ) and PYC ( large deals expected for their unique oncology tech)
I'm adding more TPX as expecting to see more director buys