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To be fair they have always released a Jan update in the last 4/5 years, the only thing that differs this year is they did the Dec negative update which included a lot of the forward stuff usually in Jan.
There's every chance there will be a Jan one then which could land any day unscheduled , but chances are it could be very simple to say the winter period in line with expectations, as we have to bear in mind they factored a lot of the winter trading into the last update when they said:
While the important trading periods of Black Friday and Christmas are not yet complete, management believes the Group remains well positioned with strong traction across its new release and back catalogue titles, and currently expects FY23 revenues to be modestly ahead of current market expectations.
Lets see what happens but can't see there being a huge rush for this to come out early jan unless a very simple one.
Publicly traded retailers usually give a post xmas trading update so its a fairly safe assumption
If you have evidence that there definitely will be one let us know, or whether you are purely speculating.
Thank you kindly for your response. Robert
I think he's just made teh assumtion of the 17th as last year they gave an update on the 17th, bnut you have to factor in next year they didn't give an update in December like they did this year.
@theriflemans where do you find the dates for the trading updates please as on here isn't the best for finding information. Thank you.
One somewhere?
We had one in December so not convinced there will be another one in January.
For the Trading update.
Will be a follow on further profit warning.
Nervy times
They say you should normally wait till the 3rd before buying.
Thank you for taking the time to write this. Always useful to create an overview and informed decision 😊
Overview was definitely interesting, and stuff I didn't know as well. Overall though he seemed to lean towards it being a buy, which is good but definitely appreciate the risk.
I think with a listed company cash generative if they want to buy games to grow so be it, you have to spend to grow your own products and develop them anyway.
I can't help but feel there's a very large sell holding the share down still. The spread is wide to suggest they don't need to encourage sellers, and despite all the large printed buys the SP is dragging itself up and struggling to break past £1.95.
The encouraging thing is if it was debbie selling which has been muted by people it would have to have been declared, but very surprised there has been no TR1 yet given the volume that's been sold.
I suspect with a bit more pressure soon enough this will break out, and we'll see the sells printed, and I suspect they'll be in the £millions
Thanks - interesting blog. Also got me thinking and digging into the company more, which elicited the following observations
1. Actual organic growth is extremely low - 3% on 2022 and 4% in 2021. Essentially inflation/ subinflation so "ex growth" in the terminology. Im an ex private equity manager and have done buy and builds, but the p/e multiples for ex growth business sure arent in double digits and ultimately your pro-forma earnings growth and value creation is not based on growth per se but on scale driven margin improvements.
2. They clearly got a bloody nose with the Astragon development costs - as a result, capitalised development costs exploded form 9.3mio in '21 to £26mio in '22. Since they dont expense this immediately this has the potential to badly distort margins, and overstate profits if you overcapitalise/ underamortise. To be fair, their policy is to write off over two years, so it doesnt hang around too long, but what it tells me is Astragon came with a higher ongoing cost base than they had assumed
3. I note that not only the CEO has gone but also the Chairman - that is a very exceptional occurrence and implies there have been serious f'ups. The internal staff abuse culture clearly was an issue that needed addressing but the above issues are just as big (if not bigger for investors) and further indicators that all is not well.
As the blogger commented, that could be more bad news coming out with full year results as the new team clears the decks, which typically includes sandbagging all provisions and coming out with the worst story so they can then start afresh looking good as the new team.
I was about to pull the trigger and had a buy order at 1.80, but have now pulled it pending full year results to understand what is their real operating margin and also see if the new team have a solution for the lack of growth (the biggest issue for me when its still trading on a double digit earnings multiple). Am not surprised Jefferies (who know their tech) issued a hold recommendation recently with a 180 target price.
My 2 cents for what its worth
.youtube.com/watch?v=YoGz9CDp7AY
Some interesting background to the CEO stepping down. Lots of research details here.
Whilst getting ready for the next move up
Slipping under the radar this now.
Looks to me like somebody ius just cleaning up, little rises filling orders, easy pickings for them whilst alsoincreasing the value of their existing shareholding,
How much does the buyer/buyers want to invest?
What do they see as fair value?
Who is buying?
If there's still plenty in the kitty to buy, and they see fair value as much higher than this then we could be in for a good sustained period of re rating.
If when they're done the quality of buyer is better than the quality of seller, this could also give the SP a further boost. The real benefit I see is if it wasn't for the massive seller, there wouldn't be much available down here, so I'm not too concerned about any further downtrend unless there's bad news or somebody else decides to dump.
Highest daily volume ever. Downtrend runs from Sec 2020 until today. However, I believe this volume signals the day the trend turns. At any rate this will be interesting times over the next few weeks.
I'm guessing that's a seller matched to a buyer then x 2? It's prettys substantial.. Has to be major shareholders selling to one another?
They certainly need a bit more of a push to take their cash out of money markets.
Could have a £1.80 finish at this rate, given the good news about rates from across the poind I wonder if investors will look at this as a pivotal point in where the 'bottom' of the market is. I think a lot of people are sitting on cash piles waiting for the time to strike on shares they're interested in, and that's funds included.
Lets goooo
This is better...
Black Lambo please TH... :)
Finally broken that £1.60 ceiling, hoping it's not just a temporary blip
There it is 96 share buy!!!!!
#TheLamborghinisareonme
Thismorning
We're all waiting to see!
Think the TR1 Forms have got lost in the back office somewhere!!
Accidentally on purpose!