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Very quiet today, only 1 trade in 2 hours
Unfortunately our government are not very proactive towards building uk supply chains for critical resources, they talk about it, but if someone somewhere has deeper pockets and saves a few quid for sunak to spend flying private to meet up with corporate summits it's just a long process, this should have been backed to the hilt, along with company's like PHE for clean hydrogen a long time ago, we're the only flipping country who doesn't fully invest in itself,
"I think they are shipped abroad for recycling ther may be no recycling plants in the uk but there are in Europe."
Some are being shipped overseas - primarily to the US and Asia. The bulk are being sent to the EU but lots of the EU lithium-ion recyclers are also relatively small scale and are often only an adjunct to other recycling or minerals activities. A number of the plants in the EU have also suspended lithium-ion recycling in recent months/years, due to the complexities involved.
The biggest issue is not necessarily the transport of the batteries or the recycling process itself - but the onward sale of black mass. Some of the established recyclers have an advantage in that they already have relationships with cell manufacturers... but TM1/Recyclus are already building those relationships and have the home market advantage in a space where the UK government is investing in domestic manufacturing.
I think they are shipped abroad for recycling ther may be no recycling plants in the uk but there are in Europe.
What do you think happens to them then? We've been using lithium ion technology for a long time, all those eV batteries, mobile phones, vapes. And continue to do so creating new demand.... EV sure had 6 years of backlog to send us....
I'm not sure about the idea that tonnes of old batteries are stock piled all over the country a quick google search reveals that all the major waste disposal company's collect them and cant really see them just storing them.
Good read Bryn, agree with a lot of what you have said, only disagree on one point, the need for the business now. We've had over 100 tonnes of feedstock through the gates since November. There are stockpiles of lithium ion batteries in storage all around the country as there has not been a viable recycling solution until now. Once the TFS lands it will become apparent how much black mass we have to sell in the off take agreement. Our Asian customer wouldn't have entered into this deal if we weren't going to be able to supply them. Proof will be in the pudding!
Eyes are wide open to the potential risks, but at my level of investment I’m not perturbed.
It won’t be a smooth ride, but could very well be a rewarding one.
Thank you for reading.
My take (for what it’s worth) and I’d invite others to pop up for their opinion/to disagree/anything to add, we’re a friendly, open forum after all ;-)
Not planned this post so might end up being a long one, feel free to scroll on by. This is from my understanding so far - apologies for any errors, please feel free to correct me.
So: Risks (of which there are a few - I’m a realist after all)
1) Cashflow. The £5m funding facility was to provide working capital (pay wages, keep the gates open, pay the bills, insurances, rent, rates, vehicle costs etc etc) This is clearly not a cheap business to run. The funding facility is secured against TM1’s 48% shareholding in Recyclus, so if the £5m facility gets exhausted and the business is no longer cash generative/profitable/viable, then Atlas would effectively acquire a hefty chunk of Recyclus and have the potential to sell this/force sale of assets in order to recoup their investment. A bit of potential disaster capitalism.
The business at the moment doesn’t appear to be working at anywhere near the capacity needed to actually run profitably (if at all..) which appears to be held back by the lack of a TFS license. Issue I can see here is that it’s a public sector organisation (with no sense of urgency, as is always the case) issuing to a private sector business who needs it yesterday. Now, this license appearing won’t automatically solve all problems, as it’ll take time after this has been granted to finally get money in the bank. Ie. The presence of a license, whilst helpful - certainly won’t solve all TM1’s issues. A poster (can’t remember who, sorry!) mentioned a couple of days back that this business concept, while necessary may be too early in the marketplace and I’d be somewhat inclined to agree. The business is needed, a need which will only grow. What to what degree is it needed NOW? Ie, being profitable and putting money in the bank now, ie being profitable and staying in business now? Without an urgent need, there aren’t the clients in the marketplace to place the orders to generate the money. And a couple of E Bike manufacturers aren’t going to keep the gates open for long.
Which brings me onto..
2) Business Dev/Commercial team
Love them or loathe them, your sales team is what gets the money for the business in and keeps the doors open. Chicken and egg here. Have they got anything to sell? And even if they have, when will they be allowed to sell it? The black mass that TM1 are counting as an asset at the moment, only actually becomes an asset when it has a value, and without the required license to sell it - it is at present a liability. I’ve had a look at the commercial team on LinkedIn and a few have experience in similar roles in the recycling industry, which is promising.
Biggest risk I can see here, is that we’re too early to market, and the business could go under before it can get sufficient product sold.
However, my eyes ar