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Same for me, Dusty. I have a figure in here. I have other investments. I have other money. I have other “stuff”.
This represents an investment from the ‘risky’ pot, the figure represents probably a nice family holiday, another watch, a month’s salary, whatever. I’m still healthy, still young (ish!) if it does well, then great. If it bombs, then my life doesn’t materially change in any way - I still have the amount in other places several times over and I can always get it back.
The naysayers in here make me laugh “get out while you can” as if to everyone who’s got money in here it represents their entire pension, they’ll lose their home, and TM1’s failure will be catastrophic to the status quo of life as they know it.
Thankfully, I was relatively late to the party and currently sit at 45% down including fees. I’m not concerned, a couple of pieces of good news will easily see this reversed a couple of times over.
I’m strapped in for the duration, am fully realistic that I could lose whatever I put in, hence using the ‘fun/risky’ pot to take the punt; although the potential rewards if the BOD pull their finger out and it comes good will make that punt very worthwhile indeed.
As always, DYOR, and never invest more than you can afford to lose. Here endeth the lesson.
Been watching today with interest and agree with a lot of what has been said.
TFS can’t be far off at all, if indeed it hasn’t already landed and they’re putting together an announcement. I can only speculate that a sell-off of this volume can only be in the expectation of coming news (but I’m open minded enough to realise that this could be either good or bad!)
If it’s the TFS, then great - but realistically the company need to get selling in order to capitalise on it - so we wouldn’t be out of the woods just yet. Profitability is contingent on other factors after all and the TFS, although a license, isn’t a license to print money.
For me, this investment, although I’ve got a decent amount in, is very speculative - but I did top up mid morning in anticipation of something good being around the corner.
Fingers crossed!
Thank you for sharing and an insightful interview. Only criticism is that the interview didn’t appear to challenge Robin too much, but I suppose that was/wasn’t the point in the interview. Interesting nonetheless, my stance was long-term positive before and this hasn’t changed.
Agree with you there Andy and always find your posts insightful.
I am fairly new to investing and this is the first share I’ve really researched before committing (I found this forum afterwards and am glad I did).
Been an interesting day on this board and I’m just fully catching up after finishing work.
I was wondering if anyone would be able to provide me any insight into the recent (suspected Atlas) sell off?
Working on the assumption that they are unlikely to have had any prior knowledge of today’s news, are we fairly safe to assume that we won’t be seeing as big a sell offs and consequential large dips in SP that we have in recent weeks going forward?
Fantastic news this morning and makes perfect sense.
EV sales are down, Chinese economy down, a lot of hesitancy in the worldwide marketplace would tell me that it would be wise to limit exposure to mining lithium to produce new products for what can ultimately be discretionary purchases and instead focus on recycling the ones already in existence which are coming to end of life.
An astute bit of business.
Still need a lot of other things to fall into place, given the company is still not profitable - however, this deal limits its exposure to potential further losses.
Still need the other bits, though..
Agree with most points today (even some of AJS’ to an extent!). My main concern as stated previously, is that the company will haemorrhage money to an unsustainable degree before the TFS gets approved - although my hope (a dangerous word, I know) is that given it’s been in the pipeline for a decent amount of time so far it shouldn’t be too much longer - and I’m very much in agreement that it will be a game changer for the company’s fortunes and consequential SP uplift.
In an ideal world, this will be approved imminently, everything else will fall into place, the only direction will be up and the value of our shares will rise exponentially.
However, the overall situation is far less than ideal - something we should all be very realistic to. I’m not taking AJS’ “gEt OuT wHiLe YoU cAn!!!!11!!” stance (I am actually invested, after all..) but I am seeing this as more of a bet than an investment, with a commensurate risk:reward ratio.
My take (for what it’s worth) and I’d invite others to pop up for their opinion/to disagree/anything to add, we’re a friendly, open forum after all ;-)
Not planned this post so might end up being a long one, feel free to scroll on by. This is from my understanding so far - apologies for any errors, please feel free to correct me.
So: Risks (of which there are a few - I’m a realist after all)
1) Cashflow. The £5m funding facility was to provide working capital (pay wages, keep the gates open, pay the bills, insurances, rent, rates, vehicle costs etc etc) This is clearly not a cheap business to run. The funding facility is secured against TM1’s 48% shareholding in Recyclus, so if the £5m facility gets exhausted and the business is no longer cash generative/profitable/viable, then Atlas would effectively acquire a hefty chunk of Recyclus and have the potential to sell this/force sale of assets in order to recoup their investment. A bit of potential disaster capitalism.
The business at the moment doesn’t appear to be working at anywhere near the capacity needed to actually run profitably (if at all..) which appears to be held back by the lack of a TFS license. Issue I can see here is that it’s a public sector organisation (with no sense of urgency, as is always the case) issuing to a private sector business who needs it yesterday. Now, this license appearing won’t automatically solve all problems, as it’ll take time after this has been granted to finally get money in the bank. Ie. The presence of a license, whilst helpful - certainly won’t solve all TM1’s issues. A poster (can’t remember who, sorry!) mentioned a couple of days back that this business concept, while necessary may be too early in the marketplace and I’d be somewhat inclined to agree. The business is needed, a need which will only grow. What to what degree is it needed NOW? Ie, being profitable and putting money in the bank now, ie being profitable and staying in business now? Without an urgent need, there aren’t the clients in the marketplace to place the orders to generate the money. And a couple of E Bike manufacturers aren’t going to keep the gates open for long.
Which brings me onto..
2) Business Dev/Commercial team
Love them or loathe them, your sales team is what gets the money for the business in and keeps the doors open. Chicken and egg here. Have they got anything to sell? And even if they have, when will they be allowed to sell it? The black mass that TM1 are counting as an asset at the moment, only actually becomes an asset when it has a value, and without the required license to sell it - it is at present a liability. I’ve had a look at the commercial team on LinkedIn and a few have experience in similar roles in the recycling industry, which is promising.
Biggest risk I can see here, is that we’re too early to market, and the business could go under before it can get sufficient product sold.
However, my eyes ar
..yet.
As above. My position, like other’s has taken a bit of a hit this morning. Annoying, but not life changing. My average buy in is well below 1.00 though so it’s not disastrous. Would think it a bad idea to be buying in further at this point, but I certainly won’t be selling.
Need news of this license materialising to come. Given the need in the marketplace for this company, I can’t see any reason in principle why it would be refused providing all the necessaries are in place. If it does get refused, they’ll have grounds to appeal/rectify whatever is needed to bring themselves upto the required standard which will obviously be another delay but I can still only see it being up from here. Only a matter of time, but my god is it taking its time.
Would by glad to hear the thoughts of Andy et al?
B
Absolutely Dusty. Only what’s necessary.
I’ve got a healthy amount in ‘safe’ funds. My TM1 shares are held in my ‘fun’ account - these price drops are causing me no stress whatsoever - don’t get me wrong, I’ve got a fairly decent holding but factoring in the bigger picture, I’ve got a lot of things that are worth more. The naysayers (AJS et al) piping up is comedy more than anything else. If there was an RNS on Monday saying that TM had gone to the wall, my life wouldn’t change in any way whatsoever and nor should anyone else’s if they’ve invested sensibly.
You raise a very good point. I sold some of my other shares today that I saw as going nowhere (NIO, if anyone’s interested.) and used the funds to buy TM1. It hasn’t once crossed my mind to blow up the respective NIO forums telling other investors as such. Seeing posts on this forum is making me consider whether to channel my inner altruist and spend countless hours raising awareness to all those poor souls who still have their funds in there.
Increased my shareholding again today in both mine and my daughter’s accounts. Doesn’t represent a massive proportion of overall portfolios (enough to make for a nice reward if it comes good; but certainly not enough to make me consider throwing myself off the Humber Bridge if it doesn’t) as I’m realistic to the potential risks, as should everyone else be. Caveat emptor and all that. If you don’t want any risks, a nice cash ISA at 0.5% might be the product for you.
Regarding the RTO, there are many reasons why a company may choose this route to market, not all of them bad. I’m researching and proceeding with an element of caution (as everyone should be) but this hasn’t stopped me from buying more, or made me consider selling.
I stand by my previous posts. I think it will come good. There is an ever growing need in the marketplace for this company, and provided that the board and business development team get it right, it can’t fail. Some faith needs to be placed in them. That’s where I see the main risk element.
The YouTube video will have also garnered some more positive interest (even if the interviewer came across as a bit of a prick and at times appeared to be goading the staff for a negative reaction, which they handled brilliantly.)
I’m in, and will be going nowhere.
B