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Gold @ 2206 - This should help THX present great number $$.
We’re entering ‘EBITDA exceeding current mcap’ territory now if POG remains high and forecasts are met
Unless he is releasing the PFS with the updated resource, id expect he resource update to come first
Not the end of Q1 yet is it
Where is it? Segun needs to get better at keeping to timescales
So I was going through the numbers in the updated broker note and it does capture some of the Naira devaluation but for 2024 they forecast 806 to the dollar when right now we're actually seeing just shy of 1600 to the dollar - that's a full 50% depreciation against broker forecasts. Again it can be assumed that Nigerian inflation is factored in as the report is recent.
Operating costs are expected to be $109m in 2024 according to the note, I wonder what difference this is now going to make - could it be tens of millions in extra profit?
Market has to notice soon that at EOL of mine there's gonna be more net cash thamn Mcap, with life extension, Douts PFS, and lithium thrown in.
https://x.com/MylesMcNulty/status/1768610668020695357?s=20
The actual price of gold bullion at any single point in time isn't as important as the signal of where it's going next or where it's likely to average over the medium term. This last week has seen higher than expected US inflation, a decrease in the supposed likelihood of FED cutting beginning in June from ~70% to ~50% and despite this every attempt to knock gold down so far has failed, and we still sit here today with gold at $2168.
This is as important or more important even than gold hitting all time highs.
News leaking?
Because it's undervalued as it is and we saw a tad more consistent buying today.
Having said that it's still lower than it was a week ago and 30% lower than 6 months ago when POG was $1900/oz.
Why the sudden jump today ?
Just goes to show how overvalued and hyped up THX was back at its UK IPO. £130mn for an explorer/developer at that time?
Well if all higher than expected US inflation can do to gold is push it down to $2157/oz then god knows how high this might go when the Fed starts cutting.
Yes it helps as their main costs are paid in naira and they're earning in USD.
Https://apnews.com/article/nigeria-currency-economy-naira-tinubu-cbn-49f5686d9638e9db2ac42ae3cecd2f24
Will THX be seeing their profits balloon because of this?
I believe Douta PFS is being pushed back (again) to Q2, which no doubt is at least partially what's casting a continued shadow over the share price.
Segun has just 3 weeks to deliver the updated MRE for Douta and PFS where guidance was put back from Q4/23 to Q1/24. It's likely the company has been working hard to complete these significant reports without further delay.
So with 10 weeks of the quarter already gone, will we see the MRE this week opening the door for the PFS to follow?
In other words you buy at IPO at a valuation of £130m, you see THX enter production, gold continue to trend higher from ~$1800 to today's $2180 all time high, healthy profit and cash generation in every full year of production, balance sheet cleaned up with a clear line of sight to becoming debt free (end of 2024?) and net cash positive in the very near term and what valuation are you now looking at? £85m!
June 2021 THX listed on AIM at 21.5p per share / £130m mcap. THX was still an explorer at this point but were six weeks away from first gold pour at Segilola. They would end 2021 positively on track and with $65.6m net debt.
Progress since has been excellent. The gold environment has been supportive and profits have been posted in both 2022 (the first full year of production ) and 2023 (to be confirmed in audited accounts Apr/May).
2024 is now shaping up to be a blockbuster year, with net debt heading towards net cash (in Q2?) and record levels of profits and net cash inflows entering the business...
Current share price and market cap? 13.2p / £85m - ~35% lower than at IPO.
Wish this company would lean in to this environment to help this crazy low shareprice... number of updates overdue.
Resource update being the obvious one
Well whatever Segun and the board decide to do with the copious amounts of cash flowing into the business we can be fairly sure it’ll be to the advantage of shareholders, what with them holding 80m shares between them.
Agree it's not like they can't afford it. They're throwing off another $10m profit per year from the last little move in gold price past week alone. $2m of that in to buying back shares from the loose holders would really squeeze the SP up here
*couple million
Couple for a share buy back wouldnlt go amiss. Anyway Not long for quarterly update. Hopefully some further corporate updates on news items as well.
It absolutely will get chased at some point. Most buyers on AIM rather chase when the SP moves and pay 30% higher than positon early and wait.