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Agree HarChris. Worst case with no extra mine extension THX still sits on $300m cash by the end which is 4x current SP alone (assuming gold stays at current levels). You have Douta possible 2m ounce resource on top which colourd arguably be near self funded by that point to go in to production.
Upside case is they find another big extension to the mine life in the drilling theyll be doing q2.
Bit misleading that by itself steven.
We should see some mine life extension at Segilola but let's just say it was just three years, 95000-100000/Oz at an AISC of just $1150 would bring in more cash than current market cap within those three years, easily, assuming POG plays ball. We then have Douta PFS due which is I believe another 100000 oz mine in the making. And then big potential (if speculative still at this stage) re lithium to add into the mix.
The all time lows are quite obviously ridiculous with the amount of cash being generated.
Believe mine life 3 years max
Had the same conversation last night... It's an action (buy back) that could be taken to increase investor and market confidence, dramatically. Let's hear some noises about it! The board and specifically Segun hold a lot; it's very much in their interest to see the SP rise, etc. That much is clear. There is no doubt they want the SP to be stable and rising.
Good to see the directors/PMDRs own over 12% - certainly therefore in their interest to support the share price with a move such as you've suggested.
Perhaps they should use some of the $86m for share buy back to swallow up the loose holder. Only $1m or so would be enough to move the SP here 50%+
January 15th results immediately go down well, share price opens in the 14s and closed at 14.25p. POG is $2020.
5 weeks later, POG $2030/oz, no news expected in that period - share price down to 10.15p.
Disconnect?
Indeed it is silly cheap. One distressed seller pulling out weak hands.
At 97,500oz @ AISC $1150 at $2030 gold price gives circa $86m profit per annum vs the current £67m Mcap!
PFS due Q1 which is a big milestone here, hopefully brings some new eyeballs
Wow, this looks silly cheap now for a highly profitable gold producer and lithium explorer.
The volume in Toronto was 3x the average, it was a large (selling) volume day. If there weren't many trades, then it's likely it was one (or a small number of) large holder(s). Are institutions buying or trading this in any sort of volume? No. Large holders selling are not professional investors and likely need the money (or bored of waiting for returns) and this is exactly what the share price is at the mercy of. Which is exactly what has been written here for years. Saying it's just some amateur is to miss the point that this hasn't always been going on and will continue to go on. Unless this share is more widely distributed (or someone wants a big stake or buyout), we will never see fair value. This is an asset for the handful of people who own the majority of shares to be utilised/monetised/liquidated when needed. It's been written on here that we needed more institutional and retail interest many times before. It wasn't happening naturally so it was suggested the Company should spend some money on promotion. That was shouted down by others on here because it would definitely happen naturally. The share price is now a lot lower. We must be approaching halfway through the original Segilola mine life and we're now at my first buy-in price, from well before ground was broken, many years ago. No SP appreciation whatsoever for being a producing, profit-making, low debt mine, with potential for extension, additional gold leases for development, lithium... etc. Add in many years of inflation and I am well down. And that doesn't consider I have averaged up over the years, so I am very, very down. The prospects were improving, right? Why wouldn't you add? Having slept on it though; a market-settling RNS wouldn't help. There is no 'market' issue. Someone (probably one person) is selling... no one is interested in buying, as usual. Clearly very few people know about this or very few people are interested in this. What can be done to address that? Let's get definitive news on Segilola extension, the plans for Douta (sell it if it doesn't make sense and return the money to investors), more clarity on how the AISC will be reduced, plans for buy-backs, dividends (it's not 'only' been operating 2 yrs, it's profitably halfway through mine life), etc, etc. What is it, ~60% down from the recent high in ~8 months and the gold price is higher today than it was then? But nothing has changed. It's incredibly frustrating.
The amateur retail seller was offloading at 18 cents Canadian until right up to the Toronto closing bell. That equates to approx 10.6p…Let us see how the London trading transpires today, particularly in the last hour or so before closing which is when the selling started yesterday.
1 - Segun is very good at responding to emails.
2- The SP is down 8% on something like £12k of sells broken in to about 10 trades so its hardly like a large holder trading in this manor. This is clearly retail as incredibly amateur and very distressed to hit out small trades below bid.
Honestly think in 6months time here we could be looking 25-30p should they extend the mine life as expected. Chucking out 85-90m ebitda at the moment call it 1 x Mcap.
"My hope is for Thor to communicate regularly and honestly with the markets, cut the "encouraging" jam tomorrow crap and begin to realise shareholder value by demonstrating viable long-term production." - That's a good summary. The share performance is enormously disappointing and some have been calling for this for a long time. The question is, with the enormous currency devaluation in Nigeria, and with many of the shares owned regionally, are large shareholders liquidating irrespective of Company performance? Too many shares in too few hands, too ready to offload. The price has always been too 'influenced' by the odd person buying or selling. Investor Relations need to respond but if they're not; have you approached the NOMAD?
Its easy to be overly bearish at the bottom and overly bullish at the top. The seller is likely just more distressed contagion from more HZM fallout (has halved again past day or two). People capitulating left right and center on AIM at the moment.
Have been reassured guidance all remains on track so dont think anything untoward causing this selling. Its tiny tiny volumes pulling the price down due to buyers being exhausted.
No idea but whomever is dumping stock today looks to be doing it in parallel on both the exchanges (London/Toronto) based on the high volumes (relative to normal daily averages on both exchanges). That could be pointing maybe to an insider involvement ? If it is we will get notification in due course.
Now watching to see how much more stock gets offloaded in Canada before end of their trading hours (still looks to be ongoing after London closed) and that could guide us for what likely develops in London trading tomorrow.
Anyone have any ideas why this is tanking especially hard today? I'd ask IR but the contact form on their website has been broken for months and they don't seem to respond to email, which is beginning to speak volumes.
I should have trusted my gut with the assets here rather than being swayed by popular sentiment towards the credibility of the management. Especially after the warning signals of the pivot towards lithium which seems to have been a complete dud (from Jan 15 RNS "encouraging drill results received in Q3 2023" which were evidently so good they've decided not to release them to market!?). Segun may have done well in getting initial operations up and running but in terms of shareholder value the project has been an unmitigated disaster to date. The share price needs to start heading north, rapidly, in order to restore any credibility the management may ever have had.
My fear is that the "encouraging" Douta drill results are so good that the project doesn't meet viability and we're left with a single mine at Segilola with a rapidly dwindling lifespan, despite clutching at more "encouraging" and fruitless proximal satellite sites and as yet unknown deep drill results.
My hope is for Thor to communicate regularly and honestly with the markets, cut the "encouraging" jam tomorrow crap and begin to realise shareholder value by demonstrating viable long-term production.
Really couldnt care less about the Lithium right now. They need to get the mine life extended and that should be their top priority
Segilola mine life is being addressed with recent drilling at high grade Kola which, if a resource is proved up, could be trucked to Segilola. Also first ever deep drilling at Segilola for resource beneath the main pit and surrounds.
Segilola underground exploration drilling program to commence in H1 2024.
The greenfield discovery at Kola located 23km to the south returned several high-grade encouraging drill results and has opened up a new front of exploration potential to the south, an area which is now of priority.
Southern Prospects located 25km south of Segilola was drilled during Q4 2023 and returned encouraging high-grade intercepts, including at the Kola Prospect:
o SGRC188: 4 metres at 30.2g/t Au from 14 metres
o SGRC 189: 8 metres at 3.0g/t Au from 56 metres
o SGRC 190: 7 metres at 26g/t Au from 49 metres
o SGRC 194: 7 metres at 34.2g/t Au from 49 metres
o Previously unreported drilled in Q4 2023
o SGRC 236: 2 metres at 12.61g/t Au from 49 metres
o SGD 295: 5 metres at 11.25g/t Au from 15 metres
o SGD 296: 3 metres at 2.49g/t Au from 55.5 metres
FY 2024 outlook
Strong exploration focus on Segilola near mine drill targets and underground drilling program in H1 2024 with an initial 5,000 metre drilling program delineated
Thor. Some early drilling results have been announced confirming the existence of high grade lithium viz.
Significant drill intersections to date include 11m grading 1.53% lithium oxide (“Li2O”), 9m grading 2.42% Li2O and 11m grading 2.61% Li2O.
Orosur. Mapped pegmatite systems were noted over substantial strike lengths of several km's and of varying widths from sub-metre to over 30m in one massive example. Numerous pegmatite samples returned high levels of lithium, with several over 2% Li2O.
Grades of about 1.6% lithium oxide, which are seen at Firefinch’s world-class Goulamina project in Mali, are pretty much the “gold standard”. “It’s really hard to see grades much higher, you do get grades up in the twos and so forth, but the average grade, if it’s less than 1%, it’s going to struggle,” If it’s getting closer to 1.5% then it’s pretty interesting.
Lithium exploration in Nigeria is hotting up with Orosur now involved as well as Thor.
31/5/23. Thor announced formation Of Nigeria Focused Lithium Subsidiary With Acquisition Of Over 600km2 Of Prospective Lithium Pegmatite Exploration Tenure. Since then exploration has started and some early drilling results have been announced confirming the existence of significant lithium.
16/10/23. Orosur announced a lithium JV in Nigeria. Initially 4 licences were announced but subsequently two additional licences have now been confirmed, taking the total area of prospective land under title to 533km2, representing one of the most dominant land positions in Nigeria. Orosur is to spend $3 million over 3 years on exploration to earn 51% and another $2 million over 2 years to earn 70%. Exploration commenced immediately on one of the licences.
Orosur CEO Brad George commented: "These outstanding results from our first field program in Nigeria are exciting but not surprising. We pegged these licences with a very clear understanding of the geological processes in play and so we expected to find lithium. To then confirm this confidence and to find so many lithium bearing pegmatites, some extremely thick, is very positive and bodes well for work on the next 5 licences that is underway now."
Yes, Douta is a good fit for Endeavour and they have the cash.
Douta is 30km from Endeavour's processing plant at Sabodala. The ore at Massawa,, 4 km from Douta, is mined then trucked to Sabodala so it's not much of a stretch for Douta to be handled likewise.
I never liked the sidetracking to lithium here and would have preferred a focus on gold, and paying down debt. In fact I sold upon the lithium announcement
You'd think Douta could be a good fit for Endeavour if it's on 4km away from their property.
54Moz of gold surrounding Douta in Senegal and Mali.
The Douta Gold Project is 700km from the capital, Dakar, in eastern Senegal near the border with Mali. It has a gold exploration permit that covers an area of 58 km² and is located within the Kéniéba Inlier which hosts over 40 million oz of gold deposits and has attracted major international mining companies.
Douta, Thor Explorations 70%, IMC 30%, has an estimated resource of 1.78 million oz of gold at 1.3 gm/t with this expected to increase to 2 million oz plus with grade increases from drilling continuing in 2023. The gold is partly free milling and partly non free milling (refractory) requiring special treatment by BIOX, similar to Massawa (see below).
Nearby gold properties are:
Sabodala. This is a world class mine complex, the largest in Senegal owned by Endeavour. Douta is aprox 30 km SE of Sabodala mine and Processing Facility. Sabodala, ex Teranga, has been in operation for more than 10 years with historic production of 2 million oz of gold and reserves of 2.6 million oz at 1.3 gm/t. It has production from open pits at both Sabodala and now Massawa at 350k oz pa at 2.9 gm/t in 2022 with AISC $700/oz. Combined M&I resources are 6.3 million oz.
Massawa. Douta is 4 km E of the Massawa Gold Deposit which has reserves of 2.6 million oz at 3.94 gm/t and a resource of 4.4 million oz. The ore is partly free milling and partly non-free milling requiring different treatment via BIOX. It was acquired (90%) by Teranga Gold Corp from Barrick for US$380 million in cash and shares in 2020 (then Teranga was subsequently acquired by Endeavour Mining in 2021).
Other properties in the region include:
Mako Gold Mine, 90% owned by Resolute Mining Limited (operated by Petowal) ia a mature mine with gold production of 120k oz pa. It has a JORC-compliant Mineral Reserve and Ore Resource of 0.7 million oz and is located approximately 35 km SW of Douta.
Makabingui gold project, recently sold by Bassari Resources because of funding issues to Bishop Resources is immediately to the east of the northern part of Douta's licence with a JORC-compliant Inferred Resource of 1 million oz at 2.6 gm/t.
Loulo (W Mali) - 12.5Moz. Barrick.
Goukoto (W Mali) 5.4Moz. Barrick.
Sadiola (W Mali) - 13Moz. IAMGold & AngloGold Ashanti. etc.
The Sabodala-Massawa mine is one of Endeavour’s cornerstone assets and is currently undergoing an expansion which will elevate it to top-tier status with a targeted production of above 400koz/year at an industry leading AISC.
Sabodala-Massawa is the largest producing gold mine in Senegal with Sabodala in operation for over a decade. Massawa ore is trucked to Sabodala for processing. It was acquired as part of Endeavour’s acquisition of Teranga in 2021.
Endeavour is currently expanding the Sabodala-Massawa mine with the addition of a new BIOX processing facility for processing the deeper refractory ore. The new processing facility will add incremental production of 1.35Moz at
Almost irrespective of ones views on EBITDA, the point I was making about Thor being extremely cheap still holds true.
Debt is currently pretty minimal, and will be fully repaid/non-existent this year, consequently Interest will be minimal also.
Segun has also stated that capex will be next to nothing over the next year or so, during which time Thor will be generating very significant amounts of cash to fund Douta PFS and Lithium exploration, either/both of which could add a lot more tangible value to the company.
In summary, the past 12 months has positioned Thor for an extremely strong "next eight quarters", during which time I suspect Thor as a company will possibly transform into something much greater; all that cash will be put to good use and start to reward shareholders, including Segun and his family.