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SP what I post on one board has no reflection on another. I have never stopped posting on THG. I post balanced. It’s what these boards are supposed to be
I suspect you getting all defensive about FACTS is like when you denyed PZ Cussons had left even though I gave you fact after fact. Don’t get upset. This is stock and not a fan club!
The source is dead easy. It’s the analyst call on 11th May and you’ll hear it said directly from Matt! I hope this is as good a source as required but I suspect you won’t accept it
Please leave emotions out of debates please. I can back up all my points with facts
Goldy
Golden I seem to remember that the SB investment was linked to the purchase of Cult Beauty
The integration of the company into THG has been going well with a lot of cost savings utilising Autostore robots
Let me put this thesis to you SB and THG set a timeline (with contingency) for Cult beauty to intergrade with THG if shown to be successful (which we are told "it's going well") SB would take up it's option and introduce new clients
That's what I would do test the company before going full ahead.
Just my thesis
Golden - After infiltrating the Boo board for weeks, why the sudden interest in THG again. Only thing you doing is regurgitating the same points (literally copy and paste) you were pushing months ago!!!
No one has an idea other than the parties involved! They take a 5-10 year+ view of businesses!
Anyway still waiting for that source from you!
you would have to assume a clear strategy was aligned upon before the investment was announced. It would all depend on whether the stategy is still valid today (clearly they dont invest based on SP)
hence why we need THG to share more on this - I do agree it seems less likely to happen than likely, but as they still hold 6.6% of total THG, there is a strong possibility of investing at a lower level (it would at least bounce up the SP and help their 6.6% investment)
dont be so dismissive as we simply do not know - what we do know is that until they say they do not want to take the option, it is clearly in play
But why renegotiate? SoftBank aren’t utilising ingenuity for any of their portfolio. That was the whole point
- contentsquare was a partnership. Heard bugger all since
- gopuff stocked MyProtein in US for a while and now don’t
- Autostore call us a customer not a partner
- clearco again heard nothing
- flex port. Shopify led their last big funding round
Where is the big value driver here for SoftBank? As they seem to have not found it in their portfolio
@Golden
"Originally it was it would exercise “within 6 months” (from announcement in May)"
Please send me the direct source to this??
I have only ever seen 15 months + 6 months extension. To my knowledge it can never ever have been 6 months, as the option can only be exercised once separation was complete. And separation could never be done in 6 months!
Anyway happy to read the source which you quote from!
Hi London - thanks and yes I also see the logic in your post.
As you say, the key thing is communication from THG on this - in this current market and based on THG SP, it is unlikely SB would invest. However, surely they have a further out view than 12 months or so, and they must have a long term plan for ingenuity to invest such a high amount in the option. This surely cant have changed, and we must remember the only investments from SB Northstar they kept is THG and Autostore, so i do think their is a high possibility of a re-negotiated deal being agreed.
But as it is now a nego, it probably will go the fall timeline possible so August + 6 months
Good morning Ste2000,
You make some very good points. However, imagine you sat on Softbank's Investment Committee, would you sign off a £0.5b investment? I'd look at the past record, 596p to 79p today, and say no.
The current share price has no impact on the day to day running of the company but it does hurt medium/long-term funding and therefore growth prospects.
As others have stated on this forum, it would be nice to see some more transparent action from the Board but my sense is that they are doing everything possible.
It's simply a waiting game for us LTHs.
In hindsight the worst thing THG ever did was not just take the SB ingenuity money and then find a way to separate (I am sure MM says in the call abou the option that SB wanted to give it straight away, and THG pushed back) - this money would have no capex needs in the future for ingenuity which would have helped the financials of the rest of the group
being frank, I hope they can renegogiate it as even at 1/4 of the previous agreement it makes sense as it would fund ingenuity capex (based on assumpion it needs circa 75m a year) for the next 4-5 years ie by then it would be highly profitable
this would also save the group the same amount of money a year, meaning an immediate benefit to bottom line ebitda
surely as SB are the 4th biggest shareholder in the group, and THG need the investment, a deal can be brokered. its not a huge amount of money for SB, esp once ARM is floated
Nope I’m not mixed up the quotes are there as to when it was expected the “option would be exercised.” I went through and listened to all of the updates to make sure I heard right
The quotes are there. Originally it was it would exercise “within 6 months” (from announcement in May). Then it was “early H1” and then finally it was “when separation completes at the end of H2”
@Hosai the other but I have mentioned is that none of the collaboration agreement is happening. So if SoftBank were still interested wouldn’t they be pushing as much as they can through ingenuity? Actions speak louder don’t they and there are no active partnership. Autostore call THG a customer and nothing more
Sorry if this upsets you. Obvs I’d love a deal I’m just being realistic as today is the final day from all as what has been said
The strategic items such as beauty spin off are separate to SoftBank option. Hence “separation” of the divisions. These choices and options can now all happen without consequence to each other
Goldy
Golden - separation was due to complete by H1 22. We already know from Investor relations this huge milestone has been achieved. Tick
What you are referring to in the NEXT big step which everyone is waiting for. The strategic plan to put everything in motion, i.e. softbank option, premium listing, separate listing for Beauty etc. This is not due by H1 22, you getting mixed up.
Although now that the separation is done, the new strategic plan after a full review can drop anyday! They can effectively pull the trigger on this anytime, as the separation is done!
To me it seems unlikely the idea that softbank are no longer interested. They bought nearly 10% of THG for £515 million 13 months ago at a price of 596p. Also at that time valued Ingenuity at £4.5 billion.
I mean obviously they would likely want a new deal, but it would seem unlikely they have completely gone off ingenuity in that time? They're not going to change their mind on its potential just because of the share price fall.
JG said on capital market presentation that THG share price was irrelevant as SoftBanks option is for Ingenuity 19.9%, also there could be an extension by 6 months if exercised
@Hosai and end of Q2 is when?
I’ll tell you it’s tomorrow. Ha
Goldy
"Cliff bar bought for $2.9billion shows to me we will be ok in the end!"
How so? Please explain.
Not sure Goldy, this is what was said in late April, they merely say "separation" will be complete.
Steven Whitehead
"And Andrew, briefly pick up on SoftBank. The SoftBank option kicks in once separation is completed. It completes in Q2, but there's nothing to update on that at this point. It would be something for later in the year and no other updates outside of AutoStore."
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4502838-thg-plc-thghy-ceo-matthew-moulding-on-q4-2021-results-earnings-call-transcript
You’ve not read my post. My post is what has been said in the investor calls
Tomorrow is the last day from everything that has been guided to in the updates
Please read my posts
Goldy
@Goldenyears, the Softbank option expires on 10 Aug and also is extendable by a further six months by both parties from recollection. Tomorrow is not deadline day…i am sure that as the legal separation has occurred THG have put the ball in Softbank’s court who are probably either sat on their hands or renegotiating. If they declined I would expect it to a RNS event given numbers involved and previous RNS.
Not for one min suggestion it will happen at £5.96 but may be being renegotiated within the original timelines.
Last day tomorrow
I think SoftBank are out. Everyone knows it. Just looked at a number of the “SoftBank collabs” and all of them are either not existent or nothing been heard for month. Gopuff an example that did stock MyProtein in USA as said but now all not there. Autostore say THG is a “customer” not a “partner”
Shame but we are going this alone!
Cliff bar bought for $2.9billion shows to me we will be ok in the end!
Goldy
To see if SoftBank will take the option
When announced it was “within 6 months” then “early H1” and then last from Steve W “separation completes at end of H1”
So it’s been kicked down the road again and again but I feel like this is the end of the vague guidance on when or if
Let’s hope we see a deal!
Goldy