@GoldmanBaby1, I agree that we are nearing some capital event, but not sure which of the permutations…ie one big event or a series of smaller events.
I have held throughout the 2.5yrs without any sale or buys (or day trading) given the false starts I switched off, but I have had a some modest top ups over the past week as do think things are coming to a head…:otherwise THG will just tread water as trading out on an as is basis is sub optimal and continues to frustrate inorganic growth for the three divisions..
For me a turning point was when he finally the sorted out the LTIP for Gallemore and Sanders - one year late but very simplistic measures which will payout on an capital event(s) give TSR 80% and 20% ESG….Also, Al Crane coming in, much bigger push in offline which MM was somewhat dismissive of on a call..then add that to various M&A and uptick in IPOs and window is as good as it has been in a few years…
Ultimately, I think MM will have made some compromises as his backers will have said you have had your chances to take private but now you need to accept you cannot have everything and given ongoing geo-political environment and interest rate/inflation up and downs the next 2 yrs will be volatile and then we are in the world of refi of the TLB €600m so I think something gives pre AGM (if not by end of April).
GLA LTHs
3.00015%….so I think the just wanted to go over the 3% threshhold to show public support
@Yorek, yes you are correct regarding the last declared OVMKV holding in THG….they have come out publicly in support of the Kelso letter to BoD and wanting SP recovery, so I think the acquired Kelso shares to provide additional support after MM and Munroe started buying in Kelso…
Only on second class stamps....track record since Sept 21 does not meet criteria for first class edition.....lol
@Canary3, there may be some rationale to that theory....I know Kelso, is 0.5% so just a noisy shareholder at best. In mid Jan Kelso said FY23 results would be announced by end of March, alongside strategic intentions.....on on 4 April Kelso said FY results would be issued by end of April (but no mention of strategy update)......
Cannot be hard to prepare a set of results for Kelso given how small and simple it is. FY 23 may look good but a lot of their gains will have reversed on a mark to market basis based on current portfolio...maybe this is behind the postponed as maybe they are hoping for THG uplift....but they would not have known THG financial calendar.....anyway another hare to the one you set...lol
The second article made me chuckle…last para sums up MM in that he/THG are never to blame… happy to to take everything on the up, but blames everyone else on the way down
@Polishcap - agreed, seems a good piece of business by Glanbia for a c25% EBITDA margin business and level of assets that with it.
Glanbia bigger than THG.
https://www.glanbia.com/media/press-releases/glanbia-agrees-acquire-flavor-producers-300-million
@OSG, it is strange that they got full yr results out a week early and 2hrs notice for call…I must say the Q&A was very lethargic and they came across as energy vampires…hopefully they have been working allnighters on a capital event, or need to get out a US filing/prospectus backed up with 3 yrs audited results…lol
As for Q1 even MM alluded to Nutrition having a tough Q1 but reiterated consensus guidance and that any shortfall would be made up later in the year. So the RNS by end of April will not be surprising, and Beauty likely to compensate.
Seems to be Beauty and Nutrition have largely hit their revenue ceiling for the medium term, Ingenuity cannot convert sales so yet another pivot under Crane…hence they need partnerships or M&A for growth…spinning wheels now in the bigger scheme of things and only a massive or small series of capital events will unlock value…cannot see a trading it out scenario is going to do much over next few yrs given wider dynamics of LSE related trading issues even if they achieve the medium term 9% EBITDA…..as they will not become “global leaders” in their chosen markets with current footprint..(I think MM does overstate their global power when you look at segmental peers)
I’m still positive deals will get done! Just need to be given yet more time and maybe a few bloody noses at AGM if nothing announced by then.
Where is CitySpy…lol
Puig is a house of premium brands so better than THG’s portfolio of own brands and reseller. Puig turnover €4.3bn and adjusted EBITDA a whopping 20%…..will be interesting to see how it isvalued as not much info released…just a RNS of intention to float…will be a proxy/read across for a standalonr beauty division
@GTC, I would not get too excited yet….yes, I also posted earlier this week if last yr’s convention was followed we would get an RNS today…. BUT if you look back further then…
FY 22…..RNS of notice of results was on 14 Apr at 2.30pm and Prelims and Q1 announced 21 Apr
FY21 RNS of notice was 23 Mar (!) and Prelims issued 15 Apr
So no consistent pattern for RNS notice of results but a consistent pattern that results issued the 3rd week of the month in April (either Tues/Thurs)
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If reporting patterns continues the we should get RNS on Thurs 4 April to confirm Prelim FY23 and Q1 24 results will be Tues 16 Apr.
I don’t think they will play the silly game they played last time giving analysts 1hr notice…especially as this time they will be issuing guidance for FY24
GLA LTHs
Positive and independent engagement from Peel Hunt. A common thread running through this is the level of public disclosure (or lack of) to fully understand the 3 divisions.
Its disingenous from MM, Iain Mac and Sue Farr on the LinkedIn comments that this may provoke interest from those with analytical thoughts…..Fact is after the calamitous CMD in Sept 21, THG have disengaged on proactive investor engagement event though the likes of Gallemore admitted they did not do a great job in explaining business but would seek to do….instead they went into reverse.
If they followed the April results with a CMD that may even build on this….
@Okehurst1, totally agree…the irony is that the LTIP award post IPO gave MM another c8% of total shares so strengthening his grip.
Conversely, Balderton, Sofina and to a lesser extent QIA have not seen the LTIP trigger valuation stick post dilution…I’m sure that is not lost on them with MM still at the wheel (for now)….its been a lose/lose situation for them…
@Pvdave, obvious it will be Pep first…then Matt Meddler….ETH is the new Big Mac….lol….apologies in advance to mancityslicker…just jesting
@MagnumPI - 100% agree with you last post…if he carries on like this only a matter of time patience runs out…
Cannot see any right minded CEO come in, if MM became Chair in a plc enviromnent…(as a private coy maybe)….at some point he will cross the line with his “friends” and BoD will finally see the glaring conflict of interest as a 25% shareholder and CEO with a track record of underdelivery since Sept 21 (notwithstanding global mitigating events)…despite being on top of the financial and operational KPIs on the hour every hour…lol
@MagnumPI, agree that this is an action to try and circumvent dissent at forthcoming AGM….however disaffected investors will/should not be hoodwinked by this action (all too little and too late) and unless there is a meaningful announcement to drive SOTP valuation the Board are still going to “no” votes…and hopefully 20%-25% + of votes cast to express the dissatisfaction/ever increasing frustration….
@Polishcap…Big Mac will be dedicating more time as an adviser so it will cost us more not save a fortune….lol….but one less echo in the Boardroom