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Not true, everything I wrote before was valid as of the time.
Because (it now seems) H2 was much poorer than they targeted after H1 funds have become extremely tight once again. But we also have to remember that they did a placing in Jan and only raised $1m, there was surely the option to raise more at that time instead of literally waiting for the Mad government to pay out that rebate.
It's amateur hour relying totally on a VAT rebate that is already months delayed - Shishir once again took a gamble that hasn't paid off due to a miscalculation in believing that it really was imminent. Is operational progress literally on hold until the cash is received? It would seem like it to me...
I believe your points to be valid HarChris but I would point out the company has stated it needs 1mil to ramp up production, if they had received the tax refund from Madagascan government when they believed it to be “imminent” I’m sure we would be more likely to hit targets.
So as to your earlier reply saying targets are not being missed due to not receiving the tax refund, I completely disagree.
'Also if management who have had decades in the game are not “smart” enough to foresee future operational issues who will be?'
Experience and intelligence are not always positively correlated.
' I never previously expected much from this year so a poor set of results fits with what I would have expected given the stage the companies at.'
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But why? TGR announced they had reached 30ktpa capacity in February 2023 and announced their crazily ambitious 6100T-6500T first quarter target alongside ... yet missed it by an enormous 60%. Fine, it was assumed to be unattainable by the market so what did they promise next? "Expect to reach c50% capacity utilisation in the current quarter and c75% in Q3' and 'The Company remains focussed on reaching monthly production and sales minimum target of 2,000 tons and expects to achieve this important milestone in Q3'
Brilliant. They've learnt their lesson and set some conservative targets, onwards and upwards to a better and improving picture in Q2...
Oops, production comes in even lower at 2100T, that's 700Tpm and barely 30% of capacity. They must have had some idea of this when the q1 update was released in August (already 5 weeks into the quarter) yet missed their forecast again by a country mile.
And off Shishir goes again this time targeting 7500T base case for H2, a downgrading but at least a step in the right direction... So are they on track for that? God knows, they haven't shared even a snippet of operational progress since October. Zilch. Nada
And a point to note... jumbo and large flake prices have held up very well, there's been virtually no change in basket price for TGR so for their current operations there's no bear market that's causing this - it's certainly the case for small flake producers that were expecting big rises this year and instead has seen their basket price collapse but TGR has been fortunate with their prices holding up well.
Firstly lack of open communication, I don’t know why it is so difficult to announce at least a couple of weeks in advance as to when the next set of results will be released.
Secondly the board, I agree the current situation is not ideal, also how long does it take to find a cfo?
You mention management not being able to foresee future operational issues, well if you’d followed mining companies for as long as you say surely you understand these things do happen. Don’t know what use the CEO would be on the frontlines of the mines but I’m sure you’re welcome to suggest it for him. Unrelated note - I’ve seen my current employer on site twice in the last year.
Also if management who have had decades in the game are not “smart” enough to foresee future operational issues who will be?
Some good points occasionally HarChris but I do believe they need a crystal ball to keep you on side.
In fairness being tight on working capital cash with the board only taking shares on the whole for extended periods rather than their salaries in cash appears to suggest that’s a major factor given a correlation with departures as well and slow progress on replacements. Finding the balance without giving away the moon or finding people and suitable candidates with the right expectations, not wanting the moon etc is probably hard.
Interesting reading chaps thanks all for the contributions on each side
All of that is true HarChris, and I for one have never said I'm not judging him on performance, simply that this upcoming set of results isn't my only benchmark. I never previously expected much from this year so a poor set of results fits with what I would have expected given the stage the companies at.
My issue isn't with his failings. I think even his most vocal supporters would agree there is big room for improvement, its that nothing has been present which shows the new group to be any better.
Out of the frying pan and into the fire comes to mind.
As I've said, several times. The new group might be amazing, but they need to show that, which they haven't so far.
As I see it, listing his failings is focusing on the wrong element here. We all know what to expect if he stays in place. The focus should really be what would we expect if the new group took charge.
As an example, Isabel has worked in comms for St Brides Partners for some time (within a consultant role I believe, but don't quote me). I know St Brides Well as they do the PR for dozens of AIM and small cap companies, so you would expect a smoother running PR element with her onboard. (She was on board before and it didnt improve, but that might be because she was restricted by current board).
I want to believe. I want to be excited by the suggestion of change, but all I see is negatives towards the current board (some made up stories too), and lots of spin. Wheres the positive facts?
In addition, and I'm struggling to understand the reasons for this, as it stands, theres no way the vote could win with such a small percentage, that the FT group have. They must know that, yet they aren't reaching out via here etc to make there case to gain more numbers (because I don't believe some of the pro posters on here are offical reps as to unprofessional to win any hearts and minds), thus what is there real motives? Do they actually want to take over or do they just want a big sit down to maybe get some extra incentives off the board, or do they want to cause unrest as payback?
Supporters of Shishir should ask themselves's "why does he have difficulty appointing and retaining people who have Corporate Experience?" Is appointing Novices the way to manage a Bussiness?
There are 2 types of "Successful Business-people".
One who values and looks after the interests of Shareholders. The other who looks after themself and too hell with everyone else.
He robbed us
He's been offering a personal guarantee against his own finances in order to raise debt so he's obviously wealthy - not that it appears to have been successful as of yet.
When I say that I'm judging him on performance (with strange responses from others saying they aren't) I'm not just talking about operational performance, I'm talking about following through on corporate and governance issues too.
The last update two months ago laid out positive plans once again and at the time what did I say? That all sounds good but sadly the market wants to see it before it believes it.
Well so far how are they are doing against those objectives? The 'imminent' $2m hasn't arrive, there's no word on the establishment of a working credit facility, nothing on the potential funding for expansion for the next 6kt module, CFO appointment is yet to be concluded, no new NEDs appointed (which would have taken pressure off Shishir).
Let's also remember that numerous times in 2023 Shishir spoke of corporate governance being one of his top priorities and yet here we are with a board consisting of himself, his daughter who's only work experience post-BSc is with her dad and Alastair, a 20-something year old who got fast tracked in six months to a board position.
DrewStevo,
Its very unlikely they will be found on any big rich list as Forbes top 100 for India has number 100 worth over 1 Bil. So if they are on a list, they are going to be thousands down.
Secondly, and this isn't in reply to anything you have wrote, but to the wider audience. I would be amazed if he wasn't a millionaire. I'm pretty sure he would have been before getting on with TGR. The whole Poddars family have been running businesses for donkeys years I believe.
DrewStevo just so you know (as I was reading your posts) I’ve never implied that Hemant is secretly a part of this newly formed group or that he’s personally attempting to remove Shishir.
Just to clear it up from the info I have seen he has voiced his concerns about Shishir which appear to match / are similar to what this group thinks and stepped away as a NED for that reason but far from being devious or attempting to oust him etc he hasn’t turned against him publicly.
As far as I can tell Hemant’s a decent guy who just wants the best for the company as he’s joint owner of the concert party with Shishir.
So yeah sorry if my previous posts suggested otherwise, as far as I know he isn’t involved in this group but obviously is in communication with them as former NEDs
Disappointed no link to the “rich list” has been provided. A bit like no links have been provided as I asked a month back or so to any actual information confirming any accusations that have been made endlessly made for about a year that I’ve been trawling through of each poster. Disappointing guys come on I was really looking forward to seeing the “rich list”….
Saluc a genuine question, if you don't hold Shishir accountable for all these things what do you hold him accountable for? Only the positives, which I acknowledge too, especially in the first couple of years after listing.
The porr results so far this year have not been because of the weather, have not been because of a lack of tax rebate received, they've been because of other operational issues which him and his team failed to foresee, possibly because he's not involved and on-site enough. More recent numbers we don't have but if they are poor there will be some other excuse found or some other issue they hadn't pre-empted before.
I've followed the mining game long enough now to spot when there are issues out of a management team's control and issues because management are not smart enough and/or not quick thinking enough and/or not able to troubleshoot successfully.
Shishir strikes me as someone with many skills within the graphite sector but CEO of a listed company like this might be a level above his abilities.
Shishie and his daughter are millionaires for one reason only. They are stealing our graphite and selling it to one of their other companies. Is this is ehat you call a GOID businessman then your as corrupt as he is. You really are a piece of excrament saluc. Our investment is being robber from us on a daily basis right under our noses while you call poddar a good businessman. Poodar and you deserve each other. Dyor
So you say he’s worked himself up to be a millionaire in a few years yet he is a bad businessman, honestly do not know why the group hired you to be their frontman
Hold on I thought I was Shishir? Oh wait last time I was his brother.. thanks for you input, entertaining as always
Ahahahaahhaha pls send me a link to the “rich list”! Although troubling this continues to be quite the show
Yes it is disappointing when results are not met but I don’t hold one man accountable for the weather and other issues faced (i am not an graphite expert, he is), I also don’t hold him responsible for the Madagascan government regarding the tax refund. I don’t think that’s being ignorant I believe it is being reasonable.
How I decide to invest is by looking in depth to the numbers, not opinions.
Saluc, of all the stupid comments you have made on here your last sentence is by far the worst one liner anyone could utter regarding shishir being a good businessman. He has put TGR on life support while stealing our graphite from us. 5P a share from 150p. Pranagraf are loaded as they keep getting our graphite at stupidly low prices. Both himself and his daughter are now multi millionaires according to Indian rich list survey. All this in the last 3 years. Guess where the money came from? DYOR
DrewStevo, please do share your findings as its always interesting to hear about what others find.
'I believe judging Shishir on the next set of results to be ignorant.'
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Fine but that's really odd. Target for H2 is 7500T-10000T, in January it was reiterating that TGR have the resources to achieve 1500Tpm (i.e in that range), so why a year after installing 30kt capacity and with repeated claims that they can reach the above target with current resources (need capital to increase production to get to get close to 30ktpa production + build another 6ktpa capacity would you not judge the company on performance?
So you don't judge on share price, judging results is ignorant, what do you go by? Just his words?
I believe judging Shishir on the next set of results to be ignorant.
Zan I completely agree with you, hopefully only to be done as a last resort to keep the company afloat, if it even comes to that. I just wanted to say in my opinion the chances of this company going under are very slim, regardless of results meeting targets with such valuable assets not currently used for production.
I also agree it did cost the company in the way they acquired the Suni assets but I do believe it was the right decision, if the company had to secure debt to purchase the Suni assets would be even more difficult to secure funding now, I think this is what a lot of angry Shareholders are looking over. He is a good businessman in a bear market.
Yep the plot twists and turns and we’re none the wiser if this is to just become another oil and gas pump and dump if they sell all the assets off. Did some reading up on both sides and their associates in the city and now also worried what the new group actually intends to do. Torreaguas, I hope so!
It’s all noise and speculation at this point, we need some clarity and transparency