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The results don't read well. Things are clearly not looking good for the Poddar family business. Could be a big drop coming today.
2600T production in H2 is appalling.
If the share price/market cap wasn't so low already this would fall 80% today but there will be some consideration for the high quality Mozambique assets I suspect.
The business has completely stalled with no cash left waiting for tax rebates.
Unbelievable the value destructed for 2m.gbp.
Could have raised a convertible during commissioning when story was good.
Government.has no cash for refund.
He blew the resources to aquire a new project without considering how to run the current operations.
An empire builder with no common sense. Who is only now engaging DFI. That might not be fast
You’ll get use to it, he recently made that much noise that the company was being taken private the company had to deny it in an update.
What proof do you have that they are mining more than is being officially sold and they are taking the rest for themselves? That is a very serious accusation to make.
While its good to debate what has happened and also what has gone wrong and the ways to fix then, lets not be fooled into thinking shishir has been honest with investors. This in reality is the crux of the financial situation he has put the company in. Just look at all the lies he has come out with. If truth be told he has lied about the Imminent tax rebate, he has lied about the targets he said he would hit. The main problem is he doesn't have anyone looking over his shoulder to check what he is doing. He did have a number of NED's who were looking over his shoulder and low and behold he got rid of every one of them. in quick succession. There has been absolutely NO corporate Governance within the company for a long time now. We dont even have a CFO. He promised one but guess what. Yes he has lied again. This situation which he has created himself is deliberate as it has allowed him to lie extensively about the graphite tonnage being taken out of the ground since no one can challenge wether he mines 200 tons or 2000 tons in any single day, week, or month etc. The amount he declares has always much less that the amount he mines. This has been going on for a long time now. This is why the targets he sets can never be get reached since he doesn't ever declare it all. More than half of what he does NOT declare is sold on by Pranagraf and his other companies. If the targets he set were reached (by this I mean if he didnt syphon off over half the graphite for himself) TGR would be flying right now. We wouldn't need any funding whatsoever. We would be cash positive. The problem we will continually face is once the meeting takes place and IF he stays UNWATCHED, there will be no one to stop him continuing the same way he has been doing for so long now. And that will ultimately lead to a share price that is worse than todays pathetic price. We will then soon be worth nothing and the company gets taken private for nothing or next to nothing. Shareholders need to act now or we will lose everything. He must not be allowed to continue unsupervised. Anyone disagreeing with this course of action imho is either not invested in the company or they want the company taken private. DYOR
For me a good CEO foresees problems before they arise or has an instinct that proves to be right with hindsight more often than not but let's agree to disagree for now, I'm done with arguing!... At least we kept our debate respectful Saluc :)
Hopefully Shishir starts proving all my criticisms wrong in the weeks and months ahead.
Easy to say with hindsight, just as easy for me to say if we received the tax refund in March when they believed it to be imminent the SP would be sitting a bit higher.
In the grand scheme of things, my point of view is as long as we keep producing, stay afloat until funding is secured for development of the Suni acquisition I’m happy enough to be patient as I always thought of this as a long term play
I am saying they should have raised what they needed at the time if $1m wasn't enough.
Time and time again Shishir's belief hasn't matched his ability so what happens is he aims to keep dilution low thinking that the share price will be much higher in 'x months' or whatever but it never is because progress on the ground isn't being seen.
If execution had been better than his strategy would have worked a treat but execution has been poor hence the position we find ourselves in, where even a £200k cln coupon can't be sorted with cash nor is anyone able to be paid without issuing shares.
In no way am I accusing you of being part of the group, not that there is anything wrong even if you were. I personally disagree with their actions but I do not blame shareholders who are campaigning for change.
But what would you have preferred? Another raise? I’m not having a dig I am genuinely interested in your opinion.
Just so you're aware i'm in no way part of the Free Tirupati group. I've only ever spoken to one person associated with that group who tried to get me on board but I said no.
Until very recently I had no interest in seeing Shishir removed but it gets to the point where you can't just accept the same thing to continue indefinitely and that's why I am where I am now, really only in the past week. That's why I say come on and deliver on some of these promises and prove me wrong.
So what was the better option? Another raise? You’d of loved that for sure, more ammo for the takeover group. Not sure if you read the corporate update but they were not relying on it - Establishment of working capital facilities from the Company's bankers in Madagascar being progressed supported by a personal guarantee being agreed to be provided from the Executive Chairman; and
· Due diligence work continues with DFI's for funding the expansion of the Company's effective production at Madagascar first to 36,000tpa in the near term and then to 54,000tpa thereafter through the addition of a new 18,000 tpa module.
I’m interested to hear your opinion here as an armchair CEO, what was the right decision? It sounds like you would have supported more dilution.
Noticed 2 senior execs at this company liked Tirupati last post on LinkedIn
£320 mill turnover £80 mill profit is this the company at the end of Tirupatis questionable supply chain
Here's the guys I'm not a current shareholder but watching this
https://www.linkedin.com/in/ashutoshdixit?utm_source=share&utm_campaign=share_via&utm_content=profile&utm_medium=android_app
https://www.linkedin.com/in/ajeet-singh-34123339?utm_source=share&utm_campaign=share_via&utm_content=profile&utm_medium=android_app
Could be worth asking the question if someone meets up with Poddar GLA
Not true, everything I wrote before was valid as of the time.
Because (it now seems) H2 was much poorer than they targeted after H1 funds have become extremely tight once again. But we also have to remember that they did a placing in Jan and only raised $1m, there was surely the option to raise more at that time instead of literally waiting for the Mad government to pay out that rebate.
It's amateur hour relying totally on a VAT rebate that is already months delayed - Shishir once again took a gamble that hasn't paid off due to a miscalculation in believing that it really was imminent. Is operational progress literally on hold until the cash is received? It would seem like it to me...
I believe your points to be valid HarChris but I would point out the company has stated it needs 1mil to ramp up production, if they had received the tax refund from Madagascan government when they believed it to be “imminent” I’m sure we would be more likely to hit targets.
So as to your earlier reply saying targets are not being missed due to not receiving the tax refund, I completely disagree.
'Also if management who have had decades in the game are not “smart” enough to foresee future operational issues who will be?'
Experience and intelligence are not always positively correlated.
' I never previously expected much from this year so a poor set of results fits with what I would have expected given the stage the companies at.'
________________
But why? TGR announced they had reached 30ktpa capacity in February 2023 and announced their crazily ambitious 6100T-6500T first quarter target alongside ... yet missed it by an enormous 60%. Fine, it was assumed to be unattainable by the market so what did they promise next? "Expect to reach c50% capacity utilisation in the current quarter and c75% in Q3' and 'The Company remains focussed on reaching monthly production and sales minimum target of 2,000 tons and expects to achieve this important milestone in Q3'
Brilliant. They've learnt their lesson and set some conservative targets, onwards and upwards to a better and improving picture in Q2...
Oops, production comes in even lower at 2100T, that's 700Tpm and barely 30% of capacity. They must have had some idea of this when the q1 update was released in August (already 5 weeks into the quarter) yet missed their forecast again by a country mile.
And off Shishir goes again this time targeting 7500T base case for H2, a downgrading but at least a step in the right direction... So are they on track for that? God knows, they haven't shared even a snippet of operational progress since October. Zilch. Nada
And a point to note... jumbo and large flake prices have held up very well, there's been virtually no change in basket price for TGR so for their current operations there's no bear market that's causing this - it's certainly the case for small flake producers that were expecting big rises this year and instead has seen their basket price collapse but TGR has been fortunate with their prices holding up well.
Firstly lack of open communication, I don’t know why it is so difficult to announce at least a couple of weeks in advance as to when the next set of results will be released.
Secondly the board, I agree the current situation is not ideal, also how long does it take to find a cfo?
You mention management not being able to foresee future operational issues, well if you’d followed mining companies for as long as you say surely you understand these things do happen. Don’t know what use the CEO would be on the frontlines of the mines but I’m sure you’re welcome to suggest it for him. Unrelated note - I’ve seen my current employer on site twice in the last year.
Also if management who have had decades in the game are not “smart” enough to foresee future operational issues who will be?
Some good points occasionally HarChris but I do believe they need a crystal ball to keep you on side.
In fairness being tight on working capital cash with the board only taking shares on the whole for extended periods rather than their salaries in cash appears to suggest that’s a major factor given a correlation with departures as well and slow progress on replacements. Finding the balance without giving away the moon or finding people and suitable candidates with the right expectations, not wanting the moon etc is probably hard.
Interesting reading chaps thanks all for the contributions on each side
All of that is true HarChris, and I for one have never said I'm not judging him on performance, simply that this upcoming set of results isn't my only benchmark. I never previously expected much from this year so a poor set of results fits with what I would have expected given the stage the companies at.
My issue isn't with his failings. I think even his most vocal supporters would agree there is big room for improvement, its that nothing has been present which shows the new group to be any better.
Out of the frying pan and into the fire comes to mind.
As I've said, several times. The new group might be amazing, but they need to show that, which they haven't so far.
As I see it, listing his failings is focusing on the wrong element here. We all know what to expect if he stays in place. The focus should really be what would we expect if the new group took charge.
As an example, Isabel has worked in comms for St Brides Partners for some time (within a consultant role I believe, but don't quote me). I know St Brides Well as they do the PR for dozens of AIM and small cap companies, so you would expect a smoother running PR element with her onboard. (She was on board before and it didnt improve, but that might be because she was restricted by current board).
I want to believe. I want to be excited by the suggestion of change, but all I see is negatives towards the current board (some made up stories too), and lots of spin. Wheres the positive facts?
In addition, and I'm struggling to understand the reasons for this, as it stands, theres no way the vote could win with such a small percentage, that the FT group have. They must know that, yet they aren't reaching out via here etc to make there case to gain more numbers (because I don't believe some of the pro posters on here are offical reps as to unprofessional to win any hearts and minds), thus what is there real motives? Do they actually want to take over or do they just want a big sit down to maybe get some extra incentives off the board, or do they want to cause unrest as payback?
Supporters of Shishir should ask themselves's "why does he have difficulty appointing and retaining people who have Corporate Experience?" Is appointing Novices the way to manage a Bussiness?
There are 2 types of "Successful Business-people".
One who values and looks after the interests of Shareholders. The other who looks after themself and too hell with everyone else.
He robbed us
He's been offering a personal guarantee against his own finances in order to raise debt so he's obviously wealthy - not that it appears to have been successful as of yet.
When I say that I'm judging him on performance (with strange responses from others saying they aren't) I'm not just talking about operational performance, I'm talking about following through on corporate and governance issues too.
The last update two months ago laid out positive plans once again and at the time what did I say? That all sounds good but sadly the market wants to see it before it believes it.
Well so far how are they are doing against those objectives? The 'imminent' $2m hasn't arrive, there's no word on the establishment of a working credit facility, nothing on the potential funding for expansion for the next 6kt module, CFO appointment is yet to be concluded, no new NEDs appointed (which would have taken pressure off Shishir).
Let's also remember that numerous times in 2023 Shishir spoke of corporate governance being one of his top priorities and yet here we are with a board consisting of himself, his daughter who's only work experience post-BSc is with her dad and Alastair, a 20-something year old who got fast tracked in six months to a board position.
DrewStevo,
Its very unlikely they will be found on any big rich list as Forbes top 100 for India has number 100 worth over 1 Bil. So if they are on a list, they are going to be thousands down.
Secondly, and this isn't in reply to anything you have wrote, but to the wider audience. I would be amazed if he wasn't a millionaire. I'm pretty sure he would have been before getting on with TGR. The whole Poddars family have been running businesses for donkeys years I believe.
DrewStevo just so you know (as I was reading your posts) I’ve never implied that Hemant is secretly a part of this newly formed group or that he’s personally attempting to remove Shishir.
Just to clear it up from the info I have seen he has voiced his concerns about Shishir which appear to match / are similar to what this group thinks and stepped away as a NED for that reason but far from being devious or attempting to oust him etc he hasn’t turned against him publicly.
As far as I can tell Hemant’s a decent guy who just wants the best for the company as he’s joint owner of the concert party with Shishir.
So yeah sorry if my previous posts suggested otherwise, as far as I know he isn’t involved in this group but obviously is in communication with them as former NEDs