Ryan Mee, CEO of Fulcrum Metals, reviews FY23 and progress on the Gold Tailings Hub in Canada. Watch the video here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
That’s great thanks for your input!
Yuri.F, if you're going to quote a futures price of over $150...
I presume you're looking at something like this https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/coal
This may well be a mixed price so not just thermal, I don't know.
If you click the Forecast tab you'll see that in 12 months the price is about $180....
Hi Letsi1, I think where the dividend is concerned it's a case of walking before running.
From Page 42 of the Capital Markets Day Transcript.
"Ryan Africa
The next question is from Liam Fitzpatrick from Deutsche Bank: “A question on the dividend and leverage levels. Should we expect a dividend to be announced with the first set of results in July/August or are you targeting a larger cash buffer? Once the targeted cash buffer is reached, should your base dividend not be much higher than 30%?”
Deon Smith
Thanks Liam. So what we’ve said is that the economics up until the 31st May 2021 is clearly extinguished, so therefore for Anglo American’s account. Two, we have also said that the dividend policy, we’re committing to that 30% pay-out ratio. So therefore Thungela’s economic existence practically starts from 1st June 2021, and accordingly our first interims, whilst it would reflect a full six months of activity, would only really reflect economics of the June month. If I can add to that, the 30% is also based on an ‘earn it first’ principle. So therefore we’re committed to the 30% but we would want to earn that first before we fund a dividend. We would as a result of what I’ve just said need to carefully reflect on the interims and the June results, so that one month result, and we would also clearly reflect on the current pricing and the trading activity throughout the rest of this year. Your question around whether there is a cash target or buffer, there is no such target or buffer set and there is certainly no leverage target or buffer currently either given that we are not envisaging external debt and that we’ll be cash positive. But you are correct that the board would carefully look at potentially a higher percentage than 30% if all conditions remain positive and the outlook remains positive. And that could be expected as an outcome, but we certainly haven’t committed to that mainly as a result of where we are in our thinking processes. Thanks, Liam."
Yuir.F, there is no debt, it is a clean slate albeit with R2.5b.
There are no plans at the present time to take on any debt as we will be cash positive.
I really do urge ALL to read the transcript or watch the 4 hour vid, either way you must view the graphical presentation also-it makes things much easier.....
So based on these figures do you think the divi would be approx 40p or am I miles off?
Thanks for your response
I don't disagree about current situation (even better: august futures already show coal at $150+), it's rather about being realistic with future prospects or long-term steady-state within industry.
The reason behind current coal price is Australia and NZ production output plus a bit higher demand in West Asia
Once they recover output and anomaly in demand reverted - it's pretty much back into <$80/t area
(2022 futures are slightly above $100 but that's considering normal interest and risk+profit margins)
This is where it very likely to get ugly for TGA shareholders thinking it will stay like that forever
Look for instance at coal prices in 2016, or 2019 right before covid hit ($40/t~$50/t)
2018th was above normal already and it made TGA profitable for a short time
I wouldn't take current coal price as new normal, that would be grave mistake for capital trapping many here leaving with much lighter pockets..
Depends on how much dividends you're expecting, tga was making losses recently (check their financials for year 2019 - loss £380m and 2020 - loss £218m {more than current capitalization}, another such bad year and this goes belly up with negative equity ), there's also debt to serve too (interest payments and provisioning repayment pool)
To stay sustainable you can't really pay dividends while having losses, provisioning for co2 emissions + damage to nature recovery, keep renewing depreciated capital (just to stay afloat they minimally need £200m/year of CAPEX) and building pool for repaying debt - because company will run out of money pretty quick.. money would have to come from somewhere, either taking on new debt, raising additional equity or financed from profit (which is not happening at the moment and in recent couple of years, they've already apologized indirectly for bad results which are about to hit market soon - in couple of weeks).
possibly for them it would be a good idea to finance operations by selling new shares at these unusual prices.
Any ideas on the projected dividend and will they start paying this year?
Nice little rise, hope we carry on into 250s
Question is how high will the SP go?
Well this is a turn up for the books.
I think people have viewed the Anglo figures up to June 4th and now the penny's dropping.
Rising coal prices.
Uneconomic pits closed down.
High cal content.
Low(maybe except Khwezela for the moment) cost curve production.
Future prospects.....I'd like a mention of any progress with Dalyshope, I think the ball was started rolling about a year ago and think it takes about 2 years for approval(from company interviews).
Roll on August 13th!!
If it bombs now I'll keep my mouth shut for a few days :-)