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Can anyone explain why this stock is still trading around 5p? The equity is worthless as per regular press updates?
“TCG is burning through cash.......”
It seems to be even worse than I thought. I can’t help but think that it’s going to go under despite Fosun’s offer.
If I’d booked a holiday with them, I’d be worried because you won’t get your holiday if TC goes under and it takes time to get your money back. It won’t help if the tabloids run stories on that.
It’s not long ago at all when there was a target price of 12p on this and the SP dropped sharply. Yet if it was 12p today you could more than make a 100% profit. How times change.
In May, Thomas Cook reported a £1.5bn loss for the first half of its financial year, with £1.1bn of the loss caused by the decision to write down the value of My Travel
what do you think?
Heading for 4p as predicted. It is Friday!
"They want even MORE money! But they don’t expect to use it! I’be heard that before. Reminds me of a weekend away with a spendthrift friend. "
This additional RCF will lead to a higher dilution of shareholders and those shares will be given to the Pension who demanded shares. Deal saved .
As I said at 10, 8, 5p get out while you can
They want even MORE money! But they don’t expect to use it! I’be heard that before. Reminds me of a weekend away with a spendthrift friend.
I walked past a TC office recently. Empty apart from the staff. I wonder what their salaries, the business rates & office rental cost are. Plus all the other costs of running the office.
They seem to be like government - their solution to being short of money is not to cut expenditure but instead to look for ways of raising new taxes. So they stay inefficient and never learn.
Surely there’s going to be significant job losses even if the deal goes through, and I’m now doubting that it will.
the BOD draw a wage each month
https://news.sky.com/story/lenders-hit-thomas-cook-with-1bn-rescue-demand-11808100
HK85.
Would you want to invest in a company that reported H1 revenue down 6.5% with a further decline of £183m for the 4 months to July 31st. I accept there can be manipulation at the EBITDA level but revenue is simple. Also simple is cash.
Cash for the H1 to Mar 19 was £361m worse off than the prior year. And this figure has deteriorated to £815m as of end of July.
With this figures would you invest at all in a company that is struggling so much. All agree that the current publicity is a negative and the economy/brexit is a drag.
So how would it trade in the future? My best guess would be poorly. You have significant number of bondholders who will hold equity and seek an exit (some of the funds are not allowed to buy more equity). This will be a negative.
Second negative is the large shareholder in Fosun, complicating matters. This prevents any external competitors thinking about buying in and prevents management (new or existing) in pursuing a merger/take over of other types of business.
Thirdly, I think banking relationships will be ruined and having to take significant losses on their current position, banks will be reluctant lenders in the future.
The only positive is possibly a change in management and try to focus on growth areas within the tourism sector. But this does not outweigh the negatives.
So for these reasons I think it will trade badly post the restructuring
The FACT is that if you are still in here then you will lose money!!!! The company have already stated it so obviously you cannot read English HK85!!!!
HK85 they published a bunch of paperwork end of August which seemed a bit ambiguous. E.g. it called the Fosun money a loan. Something that may sound "odd" but that ties in with the rest of the document as it states Fosun can convert it to 75% Tour Operating and 25% airline ownership if they wish to do so.
Essentially based on what is there it seems like what they plan to do is multi-phased. TCG needs money fast and having Fosun and others add money to the group combined with or after a D4E may essentially be too late. My understanding hence is that the deal will say Fosun is going to put in money on the same level as the banks as secured creditors and will do so soon. The actual handling of the entire deal will then take a few more months.
That would also get us to a point where Fosun is still in a good position if anything goes wrong along the way. If it goes into administration they will just pick up what they want and walk off as they can be first in line.
Those documents hence did contain some hints on things to come and debate here was rarely on that level. Though mostly because here it's just a battle between those who for whatever still think there'll be a magical outcome and those who are trying to make them see sense.
In order to expect any reasonable debate here one would actually have to ignore all the loonies who dream of rainbows and just have a serious debate on the deal but that's not exactly very likely. Ironically enough any ignoring going on is mostly the other way around. It's also why I gave up on posting here.
If you re-read my posts on TCG HK85 I banged on about D4E literally for two months before the company said anything, very few agreed with me thinking I was being conceited. It was plainly obvious if you had read the accounts for 2/3 years that was going to happen. I call certain people idiots because that's what they are, just invested on air and nothing else!!! The company has short shrifted pi's which is unforgivable very much akin to the Debenhams debacle.
Ambly I have said that a few days back you can check my posts.
Recap deal or admin however some on here whether they are rampers or derampres act too big headed. For instance I’ve asked illbe what is the final outcome should the deal see the light he simply stall. A deal could happen but it’s factors no1 knows them except for bod, lenders and bond holders
HK85, you are stretching the meaning of the word speculation here. In the end what matters is the odds. You can debate on the odds between the deal happening (maybe in a slightly altered state compared to what has been made public) and administration. But that's not speculation. There's firm evidence that either the deal happens or TC goes into administration. So the combined statement: "It will be either the deal or administration" is not speculation.
Chances that it is anything else is less than 1% and as such indeed speculation cause it's all bs with no evidence whatsoever.
I want to a definitive final outcome otherwise everything you just wrote doesn’t add any value, it’s public info available in the RNS and the video.
If you are not speculating of what will be happening just tell, what will be the final outcome in October I’m asking u a very simple question
Btw what you’ve mentioned below it’s not your opinion, this is what is actually being proposed
Opinion = nothing
I want to hear certainty otherwise it still falls under speculation
@illbe
I don’t like to argue let’s get straight to the point I want a definitive answer from you, and this definitive answer should be the final outcome that will take place after/if the recap is finalised
The same goes without saying for rampers
Illbe even bill ackman investment decision is purely based on speculation.
No optimism at all, but all what we’re posting here including myself is purely speculative. Unless you’re one of the bod, bondholder or a lender.
It’s as simple as that illbe
One fact about TCG that is certain, no1 knows what the final outcome will be. Whatever you read whether it’s positive or negative is purely speculation
Some doesn’t mean me
Oh and before you jump down my throat I would just like to say as I have before that I do not want to see any PI's with a loss and would be nice to see all on this board do well.
Barkley didn't you say just a few days ago "wow I'm so angry my TGC balance is showing red negative at 5 digits" (written when the price was at 5.69p) or are you now saying you brought around 4p so are in profit not sitting on a loss?
Just asking as I do remember the amount of time you called me stupid ....
If the rampers are idiots surely the derampers are geniuses not muppets.?