HK85 they published a bunch of paperwork end of August which seemed a bit ambiguous. E.g. it called the Fosun money a loan. Something that may sound "odd" but that ties in with the rest of the document as it states Fosun can convert it to 75% Tour Operating and 25% airline ownership if they wish to do so.
Essentially based on what is there it seems like what they plan to do is multi-phased. TCG needs money fast and having Fosun and others add money to the group combined with or after a D4E may essentially be too late. My understanding hence is that the deal will say Fosun is going to put in money on the same level as the banks as secured creditors and will do so soon. The actual handling of the entire deal will then take a few more months.
That would also get us to a point where Fosun is still in a good position if anything goes wrong along the way. If it goes into administration they will just pick up what they want and walk off as they can be first in line.
Those documents hence did contain some hints on things to come and debate here was rarely on that level. Though mostly because here it's just a battle between those who for whatever still think there'll be a magical outcome and those who are trying to make them see sense.
In order to expect any reasonable debate here one would actually have to ignore all the loonies who dream of rainbows and just have a serious debate on the deal but that's not exactly very likely. Ironically enough any ignoring going on is mostly the other way around. It's also why I gave up on posting here.
HK85, you are stretching the meaning of the word speculation here. In the end what matters is the odds. You can debate on the odds between the deal happening (maybe in a slightly altered state compared to what has been made public) and administration. But that's not speculation. There's firm evidence that either the deal happens or TC goes into administration. So the combined statement: "It will be either the deal or administration" is not speculation.
Chances that it is anything else is less than 1% and as such indeed speculation cause it's all bs with no evidence whatsoever.
As NK has now stated he has to keep confidentiality and is in contact with both Fosun and TCG the most likely thing to happen now is that he pays to get a stake in the Russian Thomas Cook businesses. I said from the start it would be the smartest and most logical move for him. And once that happens it will be clear he never cared about PI's or other shareholders but just about his business interests (which let's be honest is what you would expect).
I am not saying he pushed it. I am wondering where he got the information from. I can't find anything that justified starting hype at 15:57 yet somehow he supposedly did and it significantly overshot his expectation. In pretty much every case someone tries to ramp it they fail miserably both at ramping and predicting yet Amers massively undershot what happened at close. So he was right and not even optimistic enough.
Essentially the entire rise at the end of the day came after he started posting. I must admit I'm very intrigued. Especially given what happened at the end of the day. Price extensions are possible in case there's news at the end of the day but I haven't seen any news at the end of the day just Amers' posts. So anyone have a source for any news that could have driven the price?
I hope Amers doesn't end up getting some nasty questions cause this could look like an attempt at manipulation.
BTW Amers, what's up with that second message? Did you actually buy 1.7M?!?
15:57 7.29 close
16:00 19P bid coming on Monday, thats why i have added another 1.7Mill
16:02 This share is 20p all day. watch this space!!
16:13 7.29 close today - FACT
16:19 There will be an RNS at the close to say MK has been in touch with BOD and has added another 2% to his holding. Come on 7.29 close today
Monday it will start at around 19P
16:22 I m not allowed to say....may get me in to trouble.....Watch these shorters gets burn on Monday!!
16:25 I have over 115,415 holding and show loss and it's going to turn in to profit on Monday. IMHO
Puss, the actual share price prior to D4E is not something they are forced to care about. Say for some weird reason the share starts to rise and ends up at 50p. Do you think they are now going to say "well we'll swap your 200M in debt for 400M shares cause shareholders think a share is worth 50p"?
Final dilution will be based on the expect market cap after dilution and the amount of control the lenders want. The result for existing shareholders will be what was said in advance: single digit, near 0, share value.
No, he can't buy the equity ;) What he can do is make an offer for the tour operator. Say tomorrow NK says "I'll give you 2B for tour ops", that leaves TCG with 2B and a profitable airline. They will listen for sure and NK will obviously have to spend a few more 100M on the Tour Operator but it will leave everyone _very_ happy.
As he can't buy the equity but can in theory buy tour ops I'd say it is about as likely as me getting laid by Claudia Schiffer (I think my chances are higher than illbetabuck ;-) ).
Mostly ok but just like FT they seem to think the 750 or 900M are just there to cover for winter trading which I think is *******s. If the plan goes thru what you will see is that they will invest and spend again. So that 150M more is more likely to be used to fund investment than that it would be really needed for liquidity. It is actually in the RNS: "This additional capital, of approximately £150 million, will provide further liquidity headroom through the coming 2019/20 winter cash low period and ensure the business can continue to invest in its strategy." and same when the 750M was announced "Under the proposal, the Group is targeting an injection of £750 million of new money which would provide sufficient liquidity to trade over the Winter 2019/20 season and the financial flexibility to invest in the business for the future." They are not providing a split so who knows what they really need.
Given there's also the comment that it is possibly driven by demands of the stakeholders towards each other it may not even be related to winter trading at all but may just mean Fosun has been asked to stump up more and Fosun in turn asked bond holders to give some cash too.
As long as the plan includes purchasing a controlling amount of shares via a bid it is *******s. The second foreign ownership passes 50% they will have to lose their voting rights.
So if you want to "think like NK" maybe come up with a plan that would actually be possible. It will be a stupid plan if it includes throwing money at shareholders but at least it will sound possible.
Paul, while NK is probably not the best business man in the world I'm pretty sure even he would frown when he reads all the mistakes in your "plan". If NK would actually have that plan he would amongst things:
- Not get that TCG is not a UK focused company. Stop blabbing about UK stores as if that is the main problem. Do you have an idea on how many stores they have outside UK, how well these perform, what percentage of sales is online/offline in each country ...?
- Still not get that he can't "make an offer". He can NOT buy the shares. It is impossible, if he buys the shares he owns the airlines and he can not. If he wants to own Tour Ops he has to come up with a recapitalisation plan very similar to Fosun. If he wants to recapitalise without dilution he has to play santa claus and ask TCG to play along. He can buy the tour ops from TCG and then TCG can take the remainder (airline) private by buying out the shareholders for 12p a share or whatever dream figure one wants to come up with. There will be exactly 0 incentive to do so and it just means he will pay 150M to 200M more just to get that done but maybe he really is just waiting to throw his money away just to make shareholders happy.
- Not understand that his banks are not waiting to bail out someone else just to suddenly own an airline. If you think he is using the exact same banks as TCG already, I highly doubt that cause that would be rather weird given he hardly does business inside EU.
Personally I admire his willingness to keep trying to explain all kinds of elementary business basics to a bunch of board CEOs who have the wildest ideas and 0 sense for reality. In the end, if he manages to convince at least 1 of the lot to actually go study a bit before going over to the next share he has done a good deed.
Quisty, technically you are wrong. what happens is they swap debt for equity by giving debt holders shares while wiping the debt. As the debt is gone the company as a whole (all shares combined) is worth more than it is now but because there are so many shares compared to before the individual shares are worth less. So if the value is 100M before dilution and there are 1billion shares they would be worth 10p each. If you then give debt holders 19 billion shares and the value becomes 500m your shares are worth 2.5p.
In the above I obvously simplified it rather than guessing what it will be for TCG.
Big.show. as I've said before: the fact that the Tour Operator will no longer be public is pretty much common knowledge. The public company TCG in which shareholders will have a tiny share (due to dilution) will be the airline.
All of that has been known for pretty much a month. You are essentially telling us you know yesterday's lotto numbers ...
It's not that it was earth shattering. Most of it you could have guessed all along or it was announced already.
I read it and after reading it I feel even more sure NK has not made an offer but I have always considered him not in a position to be able to do so nor do other people in the business think he can. So any info in there that supported that was to be expected.
Matlot, "wrong - he could have sold his shares easily - rns can take 3 days no problem especially if filing doc delayed "by accident / on purpose" by the seller".
I assume you just replied out of context? We were talking about Peter, the CEO. The BOD is not going to sell their shares and fiddle with RNS, it would definitely lead to issues.
If you thought we were talking about NK or the Russian then sure they can easily manipulate RNS submissions without repercussions.
Dude, get some sleep. Half of what you say is complete nonsense:
- He hasn't sold his shares, there would have been an RNS and he hardly had the chance given at most times he had inside information stopping him from selling them without running foul of regulations
- The fact the company will be split in airlines and tour ops with differing controlling holders is literally in recapitalisation announcement. Why would you have to tell us if it is announced already?!? So yes, if they say "Fosun owning a significant controlling stake in the Group Tour Operator" that means there's likely no point in it being publicly traded.
- The idea that they will go "hotel only" is ludicrous though, if you honestly believe they will become a hotel operator rather than a tour operator you are not really on top of things and have no understanding of what Fosun plans to do, how tour/hotel operations work ...
Just as an example of what you can find: https://zg.chregister.ch/cr-portal/auszug/auszug.xhtml?uid=CHE-190.578.041#