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Bit of a bad day today (Wenesday) for the Synthomer share price. So I asked ChatGPT what it thought the market outlook was for speciality polymers and Synthomer. And it's conclusion was...
The specialty polymers market is poised for robust growth driven by technological advancements, sustainability trends, and increasing industrial applications. Synthomer, with its strategic initiatives and strong market position, is well-placed to capitalize on these opportunities. The company’s focus on innovation and sustainability will be key to maintaining its competitive edge and driving future growth.
Which made me feel a bit better.
FS
Tomorrow morning, a company called Essentra (ESNT) which is SYNT’s competitor, is about to post trading update. The update in March was pretty solid so hoping for something similar tomorrow (yeah I’m also heavily invested there). The chart is much tidier than SYNT’s though upside potential is limited when compared these 2 companies. If TU is good, it should lift SYNT with it.
Also, considering that Nvidia posted results that smashed expectations tonight, it should give extra fuel to the market as a whole.
Not sure about the announcement of general elections in the U.K. but I think it’s not a surprise to anyone that labour is about to win.
I’m generally optimistic
That's a decent 12% pullback now from the high. Surprised its gone below 300 again. I've bought a bit more this morning.
I thought it would hold 300 as there was some weak resistance at this level on the way up. Now, I’m not sure what I’m looking for.. if 285 gets broken tomorrow, we’re in very poor situation. Potential rebound to 315? I just hate the reaction at 330.
Can’t help the feeling I’ve overcooked it..
On a bit of support now at 285. Lets see how it plays out.
GMHK, I think it's an arbitrary thing for any companies with a certain debt profile. MCG also dropped 20% along same sort of timeline. I've bought them over this one this morning. Just feel this could go like that drop from the 170-190 window to 120-130 (prior to results/update).
JW, I had a plan to average down MCG and now seems like a good time but I’ve already spent the available cash dedicated for MCG on some other scammy pump and dump 💩 company in the US market so can’t do much right now. MCG is my smallest investment so not bothered too much.
Essentra went down after results so just pouring more fuel over my already heavily burnt account 🤦♂️
Haven’t averaged Ocado yet either as I still have this 270 level in mind. But I guess I’ll just wait and see.
if China invades Taiwan in coming weeks then my house of cards style portfolio can collapse and there won’t be much support on the way down
Well I was wrong again GMHK ... should have bought this at 288 or whatever it was and not MCG!! I think MCG is higher risk than SYNT but potentially returns 2-3 times from where it is now. Flipside is they go for RI!
OCDO is an odd one. 8% short now, so close to Petrofac in that respect. The 340-370 run has been a nice earner but you are not alone in the view it could reach new lows. My core holding is at 368 so I pray you are wrong.
US stocks are tricky ... really stick to what I know and even then, valuations on like of Snowflake, Crowdstrike, OCta etc ... I just don't get.
Started on DWL after the hammering they got. Did well on MRO and the management in DWL are same.
Hope SYNT goes in the trajectory you need it to. I very much doubt I'll be back into it but 400 should in theory come soon ... from memory that would be about 90p in old 'pre-RI' speak?
At 306 we’re not out of the woods yet. If it pushes higher on Monday, then I have target in mind. 450 might be a bit too optimistic.
My average here was 91p old money and was converted to 1824p post RI so we’re hardly pushing 15p old money right now. It’s almost unbelievable when you think about it but it still has a great potential. At 45p old money which still seems cheap - that would be 900p but valuation would have been 1.5b which might be stretched too far.
With Ocado, the rise took me by surprise yesterday. 330 Thursday and now 370. Maybe it’s very last chance to push higher to survive FTSE relegation. By looking at last year around same time, we were somewhat similar level so if they decide to leave it in ftse100, it will fly and I’ll regret not buying around 340s. My average of 460 is much worse than yours. My plan is to pump a lot at 270, then the average would drop to 350 which would make it quite exciting investment both average and size wise.
With MCG, I’m slightly worried about RI but it might never arrive if they finally offload NA.
I loaded Essentra this week, it’s one of those yet another cringeworthy decision of mine. Oh well, guess will have to wait longer for it to turn around.
But I’m semi heavy in CWR which makes up for for part of the pain I suffer on other shares.
Taiwan worries me a bit but I think it would be dump and pump scenario.
Looks like more pain on the way for SYNT ⬇️
At this moment, I’d love to be wrong 🫣
Hi GMHK & joseywales,
You simply can't think of SYNT in old money & then convert it to new because of the 6 for 1 placing. That sort of dilution completely changes all the dynamics of it.
I've given up making any forecasts on what the SYNT share price will do (for now at least) because I got them totally wrong previously.
I've yet to see any real improvement in the actual numbers the business has produced & yet the share price during that time has a range of like £1.20 - £3.30 which makes no sense to me. Both driven by sentiment I guess (both positive & negative).
Good Luck
LOTM
Hi LOTM
I agree with what you say. There is no indicator in the numbers to point clearly to a brighter future for Synthomer. But there are clues. New management at Eastman - disposals that help repair the balance sheet - focus on improving operations e.g. streamlining manufacturing facilities and so on. The sort of actions that you would want and expect to see before a turnaround. I think your last point about sentiment is pertinent - there are now more "believers" who have brought the price up – but there will be continued volatility for a while yet.
FS
Weak support at 270 likely to be hit tomorrow and if that gets cracked, I’m going to hibernate for next 6 months as we won’t get 300 for a while
It is very illiquid stock. Relatively small amounts of buy or sell can swing the price disproportionately. It might be due to this stock is not even in FTSE350. This makes it a high beta stock. When the indices move 1% either way, this stock moves many multiples of that. Not suitable for everyone.
We’re still at around 50/50 level where it can go either way but leaning towards optimistic scenario. Next week something important is about to happen and that’s the ECB decision to potentially cut interest rates. If that happens, it might give us so much needed boost.
In other shares, I’ve loaded Ocado like the world is about to end at 367 and brought my average down to 416.
Totally disappointed with MCG, so not touching this 💩 for few months since it was kicked out of ftse250. The comments on MCG board are rather tragic.
Good luck everyone. We desperately need it
GMHK, I really hope this works for you.
My take on SYNT is a buy at 250 and very likely several tranches on the way down, I don’t need to be right so hope I’m wrong. It would simply be white noise on route to 400 plus in my opinion. I just think the shorts have a playground until next update in terms of remaining net debt reduction and sustainable cash generation from ops. You also have a major shareholding that mitigates some big funds from taking sizeable positions.
Remain quite heavy in Fch having taken some profit at 89. Loaded more into DWL at 68, Also convinced WIne are already batting off at 90p so increased at 61 today.
OCDO is tricky. Increased core so sub 368 there but traded a lot to zero. Monday/Tuesday could be crazy days.
I added more mcg. Christ knows what that ticker owes me now. I acknowledge the RI risk but management lose their jobs then. Any positive cashfliw generation will be sent shareholders way I reckon. Bizaarely it’s RI or buyback!! At no point has the debt been unmanageable,
JW, congrats on your FCH investment. When I looked at the chart some weeks ago, I drew 86p as what would have been my target. Now, it’s 92 and I would bet, that’s the top. Good luck with whatever you decide.
Wine seems like it wants to push higher. They have results around 12th June so will be interesting to see. But considering recent grocery data with wine doing pretty well, it has some potential here. I’m not invested and will likely stay on the side to cheer you here.
DWL, I haven’t heard that before. Seems like relatively new ticker, not much data on the chart so also not one for me even though it’s already in ftse250.
When it comes to retail such as Ocado and asos.. we’ll have general retail sales update on Tuesday so hoping for a positive outcome and proper push higher. I’m overweight on both and the charts look promising. Asos has been stagnant for way too long and I guess the floor is well established by now. Still dreaming of 15£ one day but that might be it.. just a dream.
Interest rate cut by ECB next week, if materialises, will be a major catalyst in Europe. U.K. would likely follow.
SYNT, oh well.. I would hate seeing the levels you pointed out but that would just be an expensive lesson for me.
Good luck to all and hope we see good outcome next week.