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The key thing to remember here is that on the 8th January when AAL first announced that they might make a firm offer there was time for other options to emerge.
Now after the firm offer and a timetable for the vote has been announced time is running out fast - but there may still be time?
If nothing changes between now and 3rd March the clock has been run down - SM's cash reserves are depleted - and the only choice is between the AAL offer and administration - it is simply a fait accompli.
Vote NO. That'll focus the Board to find a plan B.
after several quiet days IBAB is back with multiple posts and not invested. This fella has an agenda.
BTW I agree with your observations on a PI raise - it was possible then and is now (on worse terms regards dilution).
Don't get sucked in to thinking Fraser is losing out. He walks away with millions now, but also with a million quid salary and future bonuses and share awards under the wing of AAL. He could even end up bettering his package under AAL. He gets a second chance. We don't. It's disgusting and he is disgusting.
Not a big advocate of us being stitched up. And also think if the alternative financing had any legs at all, they would have grabbed it. 7 million quid in CF's pocket is very nice and he can have a fantastic retirement with that money but given he had around £65 million worth in 2016 and this whole project was a once in a lifetime opportunity to make SERIOUS money for him and BOD, I do just feel that the mix of timing, doggedness/blindness to pursue the original intent, lack of creativity, lack of full awareness/naivety and the fact that the project isn't as attractive as we all believed (evidenced by lack of any alternative bidders) has led them (and us) into this sorry state.
I had been communicating very occasionally on peripheral things throughout the years with a director of SM and I said to him in Sept that a PI/public bond was absolutely worth trying. At 5 grand a pop, 85,000 would need to be sold at a rate of say 12% and small equity bonus. Said I would have had 6, friends would have maybe another 10 and many many others would surely be in a similar position. All monies to be held in escrow and only used if target was reached. Was told that historically, PI's have had a small take up of OO but pointed out that it's a whole different story when our whole investment is at stake. And that surely, it was worth trying. But as we know, creative solutions are clearly not their strong point. In the two years after the initial raise, there wasn't one 'out-of-the-box' funding idea floated by SM. It took JPM to suggest the failed plan. It took Strabag to raise the idea of using the spoil transporters instead of the original custom made (even tho I suggested that on here, albeit as a temp solution and I know firk all about mining)...they seem only capable of doing things by the tried (and failed) traditional routes.
Be all and end all, they haven't managed to convince anyone of any major standing other than Gina to believe in the company. And only one bargain hunter believes in the project.
So all that's left is the hope that Polygon have something outrageous up their sleeve, the very dangerous option of a (close!) no vote, hoping that there's enough time and inclination to raise the offer or hobble away with something better than zero and our dreams of the future destroyed. And to try not to kick myself too hard remembering the time I didn't click on the sell button on 11% of my holding at just over 50p.
Oh, so what do you suggest then?
ffc
I am sure Jupiter will vigorously promote a viable alternative is it emerges but if there is nothing else on the table on 3rd March they have no alternative but to vote yes - their first obligation is to protect their fund holders investments.
I'm not so sure Jupiter will vote Yes chilting !!!
they have made it clear they want an alternative funding package put forward so they may well believe ( as do I) that the bod are waving the " administration" card at us to scare us into voting this through !
I believe a no vote will not mean administration !!! BUT guys that is most definitely In my opinion and not to be taken as any kind of advice !!
ffc
IBAB. That's what ONE no vote looked like. You don't know what will happen post 3 March . there is still a month for plan B. And there's still time for plan b before 3/3.
VOTE NO, sack the board
The BOD have voted yes....I wonder what their new salaries will be post the deal?!!!
-----
They - all the senior execs - keep their salaries, their bonuses, and get to split a 19 MILLION "bonus incentive" quid from AAL. It's all spelled out in the offer docs. If it's not crooked, it's at least a significant conflict of interest.
Vote NO. Save the company with a raise and sack the board. P45 not a job for life with AAL
The BOD have voted yes....I wonder what their new salaries will be post the deal?!!!
The odds are firmly stacked against a no vote.
Looking back on the Flybe takeover last year the vote went 87% in favour and they only got 1p per share.
So I guess all these institutional traders get a cash return for a yes vote - although Polygon may have a different agenda?
Jupiter will be obliged to vote yes because they cannot risk administration and total lost for their fund holders.
In other words, as 75% yes vote is required for the deal to pass...
We "LITTLE PEOPLE" have the power to scupper it. There is of course a risk of administration.
But I seriously doubt the institutional holders would let that happen without a fight .
----
Agreed.
VOTE NO.
Then there's still a month for an alternative plan. Save the company then sack Fraser. Instead of a cushy number with AAL he gets a p45. Turd.
"I hope all the IIs do the same !!!!!"
But you can see if you've been long the debt and short the equity you might not think that's worthwhile.
I'm voting NO
NO
NO
NO
I hope all the IIs do the same !!!!!
NO NO NO
that means an investor who's played all parts of the company's cap table will want to potentially vote yes.
Profit on the "ordinary" shared might only be a small part of their overall game play. The part they are willing to give away for a quick buck.
I mean, if you've been long the debt, short the equity and you want to crystalize that debt long posiiton (and you've closed your short), as AAL have set you price, then it might be worth handing some of your short profit back to buy ordinary stock to push the vote in a YES direction. Now that would just a balancing of pots and a spreadsheet LOL
In other words, as 75% yes vote is required for the deal to pass...
We "LITTLE PEOPLE" have the power to scupper it. There is of course a risk of administration.
But I seriously doubt the institutional holders would let that happen without a fight .
Ah, OK. Much Obliged.
" The closer we get to the actual vote I imagine we will start to see cards being played and the realisation of investors positions."
it will be interesting to see if bond holders buy up ordinary stock to avoid the possibility of default, administration or liquidation. They "buy" the opportunity for YES. That provides continuity and certainty.
It's marginal change on what they gain/lose on the bonds, and the costs are underwritten by the AAL offer.
Guys, don't let your minds run wild. I'm pretty certain that all Fund Managers are subscribed to the SM announcements, as we all can be by simply registering on the SM page. I would hazzard a guess that they were all expecting this. Hang on to your hats, the ride's about to get bumpy (I think). The closer we get to the actual vote I imagine we will start to see cards being played and the realisation of investors positions.
As previously posted on this site there is interesting opposition from Jupiter however Polygon's reason for increasing is yet to be understood. I sincerely hope for all of our sake that us PI's can benefit from their game plan.
It showed as an rns on InvestEgate at 7.00am
Calamari thanks for that I see the document popped up on here just after 08:00 despite being timed 07:00, I looked on the AAL site but couldn't see it.
So Tue Mar 3 it is. Hopefully a good attendance and some robust exchanges of views.
Voting NO.
Is that the arrangements for the vote ( or the formal final offer ) due 17th ?
Not showing up as an RNS -
Perhaps Mr Fraser wants as few people I.e. Jupiter
to know about it????