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Good evening W.
No need to apologise for not replying. Hope all has gone well with the job.
Today has seen further falls in the general market. Some smaller shares have fallen considerably. And there will be more to come.
My holding in IGG has hit a years' low today, it has been showing weakness for a little while. I bought in at just under 800p, so down around 9-10%, less than that if dividends are added in. Theoretically it should do well when there is uncertainty in the market which is why I continue to hold, for the time being at any rate. Todays fall in IGG has just about been negated by the rise in SUK2, so a bit of a balancing act. Probably a good result as things stand.
I see oil prices are well over $100 a barrel, having fallen a little from near $120 earlier. Gas prices well up from a week or so ago. Are you still thinking of a short on oil?.
Something which hasn't gained much attention...........yet......is the probability of a recession on the way, very shortly. I think the World, understandably has got caught up in (if that is the right expression) of what is happening in Ukraine. However, with inflation as it is and likely to rise, domestic fuel prices set to soar come next month (mine are rising between 40 and over 50%), interest rates set to rise (probably not as far or as fast as some are predicting because the economy is going to slow outside of rising interest rates), and soaring fuel prices at the pump folk are going to have a LOT LESS disposable income. Many, a vast majority have never experienced what is likely to come about and will be hit hard. It will be a time of tightening ones' belt, cutting back (a new experience to many, will they know how to, or be prepared to?). Thankfully I am no longer having to pay a mortgage and I have a very small private pension coming in rather than having to pay out, but I dread to think how some are going to manage. Some will have to sell out of their holdings in company shares, despite what they say (holding to the end, averaging down). One clown on one board said they would rather see their shares go to nothing than accept a pittance!. That has to be one of the most stupid posts I have ever seen and believe me, oh, I don't need you to - you know as well as I do, I have seen many over the years, beggars belief!. The market can stay irrational for longer than we remain solvent, if it is irrational right now of course.
As things are, I can relax to a degree and enjoy watching my 2 cats wrestle with each other and cause general mayhem around the house, including hiding behind and attacking the curtains, exactly why I spent £100 on the curtains a couple of months ago.....or not!. At least they brighten my day up if little else does.
Stay safe, well and in good spirits.
GLA
CM
Hi CM
Sorry for not replying to your post, I’ve been helping a mate of mine with a job this week, will have my head back in the game tomorrow & next week
Cheers.
Blimey Windows, err, good luck with that one. I understand what you are saying and where you are coming from; rather you than me. You have raised some very interesting points and suggestions. I have got more from your posts over the last week than looking at (only) at the posts on the BOO board. Well, lets face it, that wouldn't be difficult. Blind led by the blind on that one, not that I am a genius by any means. I would rather keep my mouth shut and let folk THINK I am a fool than open my mouth and have it confirmed!. Many don't have such inhibitions. I have previously invested in BOO and made a profit and had considered re-entering, but no longer. Don't know why I keep wasting my time looking in there, perhaps I am a fool WITHOUT opening my mouth, hmm.
Rigged game?........err.....yes, probably agree with you on that one overall. How to read the market, micro and macro is important. We are usually behind the game though. What we know you can bet the market knew already and all we can do is play catch up or make an educated guess as to what is likely to happen. Market makers know how to play the private investor and see many of them coming. They are there to make money not to make friends. When the market goes up we never say thank you Mr. Market Maker, but if it goes down we shout and scream. Well, that and suggesting those who are on the boards with a bearish outlook are "paid derampers"!, paid by who for heavens sake?. I don't know if I should laugh or cry at times.
I would be interested to know the findings and research you have done about how the market works. Personally, I have done a lot of reading over the years including the Robbie Burns, Naked Trader books which I found very informative and easy reading. He makes so much sense, which I can understand, not blinding folk with science. As much as anything he would re-iterate what I said about NOT losing money, or at least cutting losses whilst they are small. He mentions numerous cases of where he has made mistakes as well as the common mistakes investors (gamblers?) are making.
Personally, I may re-visit my stop loss before setting off for work tomorrow morning. I may lower it by a tad depending on what the FTSE future may suggest early on. Any guess as to what may happen tomorrow beyond the market will open and the market will close?. May very largely depend on any news out over night. No idea myself.
Regards
CM
Maybe a nice trade idea for BP
Bp hold a large stake in Rosneft the massive Russian oil company, there will be pressure on BP to offload this position, as the loons have stated, "BP is fuelling Russian tanks to invade Ukraine " this is bearish for the stock
On the other hand oil prices have spiked & are still elevated which is bullish for the stock
A classic pull me, push me situation for the share price, a correct trade on this will be very profitable, but which direction ? up or down ?
I don't know, and don't need to know, i will go long and short at the same time, i think the price will move dramatically in one direction or the other and then get over extended, timing the exit is obviously critical, sell the winning trade and bank profits, wait for the retrace and sell the remaining position to close the trade out.
Not for the faint hearted, but fortune favours the brave ( or idiotic ). lol
Keep Safe
Hi DM
My 'chickening out' trade came good, short oil ( SOIL ) now 25, 8% rise for a day trade, not bad going
I am absolutely fantastic at picking the trades i don't put on, lol. but could have gone real bad that one, and as you say don't lose money, i will be all over that one if crude gets to $125
I do use TA in my trading and also fundamentals, it is hobby for me, and has been for many years, as yourself
As private investors we are playing in a ' rigged game ' the institutional investors will always have the edge, i have spend many years researching how the market works, how these guys play, & manipulate, the game, trying to give me the tools to pick my way through this confusing mess of craziness
When the lock downs came with the virus, there was a massive explosion of private investors that were locked in their houses with nothing to do. When they found the stock market, they all thought they could be the next Warren Buffett
Easy pickings for the old pros, floating off loads off dog s*it ideas directly into the path of the gullible, hoovering up all their free coronavirus cash, when these companies go bust this year it will be massive surprise to these new 'investors'
Interesting market this week,
Day 1. War breaks out in Europe, stock markets go down = inevitable
Day 2. Day after war breaks out, relief rally in markets. = understandable
Day 3. Market goes long into the weekend after war breaks out = Bonkers
US market climbed all day Friday and closed at day high at 2.5% higher
I went short the S&P 500 & Nasdaq into the weekend, even if the war is sorted out this weekend, which is unlikely, the US market will go back to contemplating higher interest rates & quantitive tightening, either way, not good
Safe Trading
Chickening out?, well, better that way - you lose nothing.
Only 2 rules to investing:
1. Don't lose money.
2. Don't forget Rule 1.
If we are going to lose money, then make the losses small before they become big. Which is why I have a stop loss here at 400p. I will not average down. Additionally I am not in a position to follow prices throughout the day. It's not ideal but I have a job to do which pays for my living.
There are so many other shares, or funds I can invest in and neither I/you/we should get blinkered here or anywhere else which so many do as you well know. The world "revolves" around a particular share I think for some , folk would rather divorce their partner than divorce the company they have invested in. In fact, I wonder how many bad investments have led to divorces. "Sorry dear, we can't afford the new kitchen/holiday abroad/send the kids to university.". "What?!, why is that!?". "Err...well.....yes....I was going to tell you....err....". Many a true word is spoken in jest.
So today there has been a good rally. Hmm. FTSE up, DOW up, oil prices down. Yo!. So all is fine in the world after all. Ukraine, Ukraine?, nah, all over done, no need to worry after all. Phew. Must be all in our minds. Or.......is it?. Don't think so. Personally I only see this as a relief rally before things turn South again, but I accept I may be wrong. I have seen this all before, not regarding war, but due to other reasons over the years, banking crisis, Brexit, Covid, etc. This is no different and may be worse. It is early days in the war between Russia and Ukraine and it may escalate. It isn't going to be over early surely, well, not unless Russia overwhelms Ukraine and the Ukrainians sue for peace. Whether or not my stop loss is hit before things change again remains to be seen, it may well do. I take that chance. I can always buy back in again at a lower level if I feel so inclined.
You obviously use charting as a tool in your armoury. And why not, if it works for you, good luck. I did look at charting some years ago and there is certainly a place for it for sure. To be honest, I am not sure I can be too bothered to put the time into charting that it needs, it isn't being lazy, I just don't want to spend the time. But, I listen to what others say and give it fair due. Chartists from my experience tend to have a more balanced view of things, as long as they don't entirely rely on it. And of course, they come in for some stick from the bulls if they dare to suggest the price has further to fall!.
Hope you have had a decent day. So glad we live where we do; lets face it, it is largely only by chance.......and good luck. We too could in another life be born/live where there is far more to worry about. Makes me wonder just how much trivia we get worked up about.
Good luck
CM
Just as a side note,
it has been said on CNBC that the spike in oil prices may have been over done, may be so, may be not so
i had a figure in mind of a spike to $125 before it collapsed
I have traded oil ETCS before but i have found a short oil ETC. ticker SOIL it was 23.02 / 23.05 today just before the close
I nearly had a punt but chickened out
will keep an eye on that one
I agree,
Crazy day today, massively down this morning then the Dow & Nasdaq end the day higher, FTSE still underwater though
I still feel the us market has some unwinding to do, i have 4222 & then 3800 as my levels on the S&P
500 these are the Fibonacci retracement levels , while the market is still under to 100 & 200 DMA
I feel they are an aiming point that will be hit.
It was quite easy being long only the year the virus hit but this year is going to be very different, large dips & big bear covering rally’s.
Need to trade this year from both directions, make a fortune or lose a fortune year
Lol
Yes the guys on the penny share boards are real feisty. Lol
Thanks W. Will do.
Tomorrow may be interesting with the DOW showing gains come day end after a bad start. Can't help but think it is likely to be another hiccup, market trying to grab at straws. Not even a relief rally surely. Folk will surely say, "be greedy when others are fearful.......". Hmm, whatever folks, whatever. Truly wish it could be all so very different.
I have been investing for many more years than I care to admit, in good and bad times. It can be like blowing into a balloon which has a slow puncture at such times as this.
CM
Incidentally, I am sure you have noticed that the busiest boards are usually the crapiest or worst performing shares.
Hi CM
No problem, it’s nice to correspond with someone of intelligence for once,
As you have obviously seen, these boards can be brutal at times
If you offer more than a bland generic positive statement you become a target for the idiots
For my sins I do quite enjoy teasing them at times
If you ever fancy a sensible chat about the markets, trading etc, leave a post, I’m usually kicking around
Got into 3ULS & LQQS yesterday morning & got out 3 pm today, 12% up, no skill complete luck.
All the best
Well, I didn't expect to have anyone to correspond with on this board; it's been so quiet for so long and for a long time it was off my radar but due to current affairs it came back on it.
I have looked at 3ULS and LQQS but no further than checking on their price and chart. Hmm. Interesting but possibly, no, probably too risky for the likes of me. I would rather sit on the side lines and miss some opportunities but lose nothing than jump in. Thank you for raising them though. I think SUK2 is enough for me.
No, this isn't an investment, I would agree. Is it a gamble?, well, yes I guess it is to a degree. Definitely one for a stop loss and maybe one to have a rising stop loss.
Windows, respectively, I have taken a look at your posting history, out of interest to see where you have or may have holdings. I see you have taken abuse on some boards it seems from stating your opinion. Abuse is nearly always aimed at those who do not share a bullish view on a company and dare to suggest an alternative view. It usually comes from those who have their heads buried in the sand and refuse to believe and admit they have made a mistake and are never prepared to cut their losses. Rather than take a small loss and have some funds to re-invest even if it is at a slightly higher price should the market change sentiment they would rather "stay long and strong" (yeah, right!) and even average down. They suffer from confirmation bias. Some of them, if they are to be believed, have tens of thousands of pounds invested which makes me wonder just how they have so much funds available unless they have bought on margin, CFDs or whatever; scarey!. Their lives seem to revolve around their so called investments. What I have learnt over recent years is that life is so much more important than that, especially right now. Life can change so very quickly, Covid, war, family illness generally ie dementia to a much loved one (I know from experience), and those days can never be relived. I read some boards even though I am not invested there, but no way will I post because it just opens oneself up to abuse and it just isn't worth it. Let the inmates take over the asylum. It's a great shame that innocent investors are taken in by the nonsense.
It wasn't my intention to have a rant, lol. But I guess sometimes it is good to get it out. Perhaps you think I should be in the asylum.
Anyway, good luck and thanks for the post.
Regards
CM
Hi CM
I've been in and out of this for years, firstly as a protection for my portfolio and secondly as an out and out punt on the UK market falling
I don't class this as an investment as such & should be never held long term, i consider this as short term insurance or a quick punt, its is really aimed at institutional investors, but is open for all to trade, so why not.
I have recently been trading 2 others which are even worse
3ULS - which is 3 x short S&P 500
LQQS - which is 3 x short Nasdaq
With the volatility in the market at the moment they are like a bucking broncos, up 5% one minute and down 5 % the next.
The good point of the above two they are priced in GBP so there are no exchange charges, i'm with Hargreaves Lansdown & they charge 1% exchange fee to buy US stocks & ETFs and the same to sell, which can add up.
With whats happening in both the investment world and the real world today, knowing about these sort of products can be a lifesaver
Trade safe
Thanks for the post Windows.
I bought in yesterday morning early before having to drive South, so was limited to time. Naturally the price then fell back and may do further, although any relief in the general market I only see short term, and as I have posted before is largely held up by the oil companies within the ftse100. I only bought £1000 and have a stop loss set, so I shouldn't lose too much.
I have traded here before but appreciate your words of caution. Are you invested here?.
Regards
CM
Hi Chequemate
I agree, the uk FTSE 100 is full of stuffy old banks and oil companies, both of which i like and have invested / traded in for years, both will do well in an inflationary environment
The worlds stock markets including the UK have always blindly follow the US market up or down, what we don't have in the UK is the Tech stocks that have driven the US markets to ridiculous heights
I feel this Tech trade is ready to unwind in the US due to higher interest rates & quantitive tightening, even though our market has not benefitted from the rise as the US has, we in the UK will get the full force of the fall when it comes
Just a word of caution on SUK2 if you have not traded it before, it does accurately track the double inverse of the FTST 100 over a daily period, over a longer period it does not because of how it is manufactured, if the FTSE 100 fell by 20% over 6 months SUK2 would not rise by 40%, if that makes any sense.
All the best
Hello Windows
Yes, very quiet board - usually a good sign. I am not "in here", at least, not just now. I have put it on my prime watchlist. I don't mind missing out on investing at or near any bottom, I'd rather do that than jump too soon only to find the only thing I have jumped into is a muddy puddle. The companies driving the FTSE100 most are as I may have said previously is oil and gas, banking. Those first two are rising, but I see banking has taken a hit today, I had been thinking of investing in Lloyds, but haven't.
The 2 rules to successful investing are:
rule 1 - don't lose money and
rule 2 - don't forget rule 1.
If I do invest, then it will be a very modest investment. Very small spread here.
We need to get a better idea of the longer term prospects of the FTSE100 and as you rightly say, maybe use this as short term and most certainly keep a close eye on things.
Good luck
CM
Nice to see someone else in here, thought is was just me that used this
Nice product, if used short term
Been in and out numerous times of the last few years
Nice and liquid never been refused instant quote, bid or offer up to £100k ish
I’ve been looking for similar product to short S&P 500 and nasdaq in UK, does anyone have any ?
I’ve used inverse index etf in US a few times but you have to factor in currency costs as well .
Hmmm, may be worth having this on the radar again. Been here before and got my timing wrong but there is very little if any good news around, less than for a long time and if the stuff hits the whirly thing then this may be reasonable. This is dependant on the FTSE100 falling which is made up of companies operating profits outside the UK economy, ie oil companies and they are on a high right now, negating those falling back. Some more detailed research needed.Is there a short on the FTSE250 I wonder?.GlaCM
A lot of talk about a possible crash coming & the UK is seemingly in a bad position. I know about this ETF but any others recommended?
This is one ofthe worst ETFs known to man !
Why ? Because it does NOT do what it says on the tin.
I have not used this for years as so frustrated with past performances.
If you look at FTSE over last 12 months - it is down approx 10%
If you look at SUK2 it is down the same, when it is supposed to do the opposite x 2 of the FTSE, i.e should be + 20%
Loss/difference over last 12 months is 30% (-10-20).
If using this ETF, only use as a day trade or very short period.
It does warn about this, but it rarely ever accurately gives you 2 x the loss on the FTSE100 over any time period !!
This will be the best performing etf , some day soon .
Investing is the patient taking money off the inpatient.
Added to watch list.
The world is a mad place right now. I can see very little if any good news for the market at all. Seems like the market, particularly in the U.S are just shrugging it all off and thinking everything will be ok and perhaps it will in time. They seem to be looking beyond the coroanvirus, that it is a health issue and not a financial issue. Yet with so many folk now not working, not being able or rather allowed to get out and spend I am far from sure. Not that I appear to know anything going by the course of financial events. Even with massive new un-employment in the U.S it doesn't hamper the resurgent DOW which drives other stock markets around the world.
I have decided to bail out of SUK2 this morning. In truth I should have done it earlier. Taken a loss of around 12%, plus what I lost previously. No good battling against the market. I don't need the hassle or the time taken chasing this or anything else. I had been out of the market quite happily for 16 months or so. Being furloughed I have more important issues.
Probably the sign now for the market to drop again and SUK2 to rise. Wonder what effect U.S latest jobless figures will have; probably very little if the last 2 occasions is anything to go by.
Think I should sit on the sidelines now.
Good luck all.
CM
I have been getting my arsed kicked ...but its pretty obvious where the ftse is heading ....if it was easy everyone would be shorting.
Not sure if you were referring to me or Jab1tt getting their arsed kicked. I'm getting my arsed kicked.
CM
LUK2 fella.
I tried shorting the £ around six months ago and got my arse kicked.
Be careful.
The FTSE100 rose by around 10% which is why this fell so much today, a fair bit of it late on. The DOW has just closed 11% up. This is to do with the hopeful stimulus to rescue the U.S economy from the effects of the coronavirus. However, I have just been doing a little reading on marketwatch.com . It states the following:
"History may be repeating itself. Historically the biggest stock market jumps have come after giant plunges. The giant crash of Oct. 19, 1987 was followed by a 10% surge in the Dow (DJIA) on Oct. 21. The worst two days of the famous Wall Street Crash of 1929, on Oct. 28 and Oct. 29, were followed by a massive 12% surge in the Dow on Oct. 30 — the market’s third best day ever in percentage terms. The 10% plunge on March 12 of this month was followed by a 10% rocket on March 13.
Watch out for history repeating itself still more. Historically, the biggest one-day stock market jumps have also taken place during bear markets where the stock market then resumed falling again. Since 1900, 14 of the stock market’s 20 best days have been during bear markets, where prices kept falling.
A major reason for the stock market’s bounce is almost certainly technical. Hedge funds and other speculators had been making big money on the way down by borrowing stock they didn’t own, selling it in the market, and getting ready to buy it back later at cheaper prices. Such so-called “short selling,” which is perfectly legal, makes money when stock prices fall. However, it leaves speculators vulnerable to a sharp jump in prices. When that happens, they rush to buy back stock and close their positions. That causes a further jump in prices, though it may be short term."
Not sure where that leaves us. The optimists would say the market is on its' way back up. Perhaps there hasn't been a bear market afterall. No doubt the markets will recover, but I can't see that the worst is over with the current virus situation. It will be interesting, or not, to see what happens tomorrow. My guess, for what that is worth, is that the FTSE will rally further initially which of course will hit us here.
Cowyed - I don't know if there is an opposite ETF that doubles any ftse100 increase. There may well be.
Regards
CM