The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring financial educator and author Jared Dillian has been released. Listen here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
Nice one lol
Had my finger over the sell button of my US shorts but chickened out
S&P 500 ( 3ULS ) at 33.60...............now 34.80
Nasdaq ( LQQS) at 31.52................now 33.11
may regret that tomorrow with oil starting to fall & kick starting the market
W.
£1000 for 3 days.........cheap at half the price!.
CM
If you would like to enroll on my 3 day intensive technical analysis course please send me £ 1000 by return of post.
Only joking,
i do this for fun, lol
Hi CM
There many 'sayings' in the TA world, 'gaps get filled' is one
' see a double top sell a double top' is another
If you look on a daily chart of Boohoo when the share price took off this morning it left a 'gap' on the chart
the folk law of TA is when the price retraces it will fill the 'Gap'
So if the price retraces down past 84.67 it will carry on downwards to 77.80 to 'fill the gap'
All this is nonsense but it is a self-fulfilling prophecy, traders know other traders know this so they make it happen
Another tool in the tool box
W.
Hi W.
Yes, I noticed BOO soaring. I read the RNS first thing and was unimpressed; it didn't say anything that wasn't known nor expected and, crucially in my opinion, gave no outlook. Very basic. Needn't have bothered. Surprised and then again perhaps not surprised that the share price has jumped. I read a number of the posts on their board and could see no reason for such excitement, but then..........what do I know?.
You mention about a gap opening between 77.80 and 84.67, is that the last closing price and the opening price?. Could you explain what you mean by "gaps generally get filled?", sounds like you are expecting a retrace. Just interested. Thanks.
A calmer day for me here re SUK2 and IGG. SUK2 doesn't seem to know which way to turn, up one moment, down the next.
Take it easy
CM
Nice run on Boohoo today after the update, up by 20% ish
This has opened a nice big gap on the chart 77.80 - 84.67
Gaps generally get filled, looking to open a short on this one to take advantage
Thanks for that W. I appreciate your thoughts and your time. I would usually put a stop loss on at around 10% down and try and move it up as the price went up. A 10% loss from 476p would set a stop loss at, what?, around 430p. £1000, or there abouts, loses me £100 + costs; not a great deal hence why I am waiting/sitting things out. I have more than £1000 in here, having bought in at around 428p previously. This is so volatile things can change very quickly up or down, down or up. Hmm, wonder if it is worth setting a stop loss for tomorrow with a buy order back in at a little lower than that?. If there is a rally, where is it heading to?, 7400 (3%), 7550 (5%), 7910 (10%)?. Translating that into 2x movement for SUK2 means a price of 421, 403 and 358. What is the likelihood of any of those under the current circumstances?. Well, maybe the first......
I first became aware of SUK2 through the writings of Robbie Burns, the Naked Trader. He has used it in the past as a valuable tool to hedge. I read his blogs and have read a number of his books. He makes a lot of sense in easy to read and understand ways, easy reading. I wonder what his thoughts are re the market right now?.
BOO, still profitable, little debt. Yes, but what will the outlook be in tomorrows update?. The market is interested in the future, not in the past. I am in retail, so I know a lot about the problems with supply and rising costs of production, shipping costs, delay in meeting orders......some dates are for delivery either late this year and/or early next year. The problem isn't to do with demand.......it's supply. In my line of work, outdoor equipment and clothing we have had to obtain a lot of sample clothing so we don't have a half empty, or optimistically have a half full shop, so that we have something to offer customers. Buy why you see it folks and before the new stock comes in at an additional 10%, if you are lucky.
CM
In a sadistic sort of way if boohoo get hammered tomorrow I will buy back in, the remaining shorts will have to close at some point, after all it is still a profitable company with little debt.
Oil has come off big style as I type, a good reason for the market to rally.
I don’t buy it personally
W.
What I tend to do with these sort of trades is if the price moves in your favor move your stop to your entry price, so if the market turns against you the worst you can do is be stopped out at break even, that’s what happened to me yesterday with SUK2.
You can always get back in at some point in the future.
I don’t have an exit price of the shorts I put on the US markets, I do watch the levels of the market they track, ie. S&P & nas.
If that makes sense
W.
.......for a quick profit with SUK2. I think my break even is/was around 458p having upped what I had in here the other day. I have a stop loss set on my first trade which is quite a long way below what the price is at present, emphasis on the words "at present". Perhaps I should have put a stop loss on the overall trades I have but failed to do so. Can't/don't want to be sitting in front of the laptop all day watching prince movement so I take the chance how things go. One of the reasons why I try not to have more than what I am comfortable "invested", although ANY fall back makes me feel uncomfortable.
Good luck with your trades. It will be interesting to see how that pans out. You seem to be doing pretty well so far with your judgements.....even SUK2 with your £1 + profit!, better than me (mind you, that won't be difficult). Guess you will be out promto once the trade is in your favour, or have you set yourself an exit price?.
I see the oil price has fallen back today, currently around $115 and gas back under 400p a therm (not that will make any difference to what we will get hit for).
Interesting day brewing again tomorrow with market so volatile. I feel the market is desperate for any good news and will hang onto it for as long as it can; looking for any reason to push up. I wonder what BOO will reveal in its' TU?, will it be a case of cheers or oh dears?. Probably best you took the profit you did. Too much like the tv game show of Deal or No Deal I fear.
CM
Cheers, a bit lucky on boohoo, bank the profit, forget about it & off to the next trade
Speaking of which, any quick profits on suk2 or similar, get them banked ASAP
I am the same, I don’t buy into this market rally at the moment, if the war is over tomorrow the market can go back to worrying about higher interest rates & stagflation as before
Shorted the US market again today
S&P 500 ( 3ULS ) at 33.60
Nasdaq ( LQQS) at 31.52
See how those play out
W.
Well done you!. Now, had I tried that...............well...............not sure I would have done so well. Folks on BOO board will be clapping hands, beating their breasts, dancing around the garden with their shirts pulled over their heads with today. They will be anticipating that all is well and tomorrow will see a mega rise when the update is out. And maybe it will be. On the other hand......any disappointment will be punished and the shorters reducing their shorts maybe in anticipation that they can short again at a higher price having bought back at a lower price. The shorters haven't reduced by a great deal. I've just had a look at BOOs' last trading update from December. There were a lot of negatives. If profit warnings come in 3s, then there is more to come yet.........but I may be completely wrong. I think you have done really well, I take my hat off to you.
As for SUK2, well, it was/is going to fall back when the FTSE rises, the nature of the beast. However, is this a relief rally or something more sustained? Is the world suddenly in such a better and safer place?. And of course SUK2 is going to be volatile. I am of the opinion that folk don't know what it coming and how it is going to hit them when it comes to impending inflation. Once that is seen and reflected in companies financial updates and outlooks over the next few months then things may well look very different. Can you see companies reporting positive updates when the costs of producing anything, plus transportation costs will have increased plus customers will have reduced disposable income?.
It may take a little while for folk to accept that they will have to change their habits but I am sure it will happen. Perhaps I am grasping at straws for SUK2 rather than justifying my position. And in a number of ways I do want to be wrong. With todays downward movement I am now in the red. Apologies, I haven't said anything new and have been repeating myself. IGG has moved up nicely as a counter balance.
As you have said previously, the market seems to be following the price of oil to a large degree, down to around $123 from over $130, yippee.......that will make a huge difference at the pumps.......not!. Oh cynical me!.
Enough of my rambling. Need to get the circular saw out. Great therapy yesterday with the chain saw!.
CM
Just closed out my Boohoo trade at 75p
12 % profit on at 24hr fun position, lovely jubbly
Cracking company, and i didn't look on the Boohoo board once for their expert guidance
lol
W.
Good luck with BOO, you may need it. One thing for sure is you will be entertained, of a sort, by the posters!. I really shouldn't waste my time looking in at the BOO board each day, but can't help myself. Some clown who believes selling and then buying in lower is akin to shorting, which he is against. The fact that he (supposedly) bought in at around 40p, saw the rise to near 400p and has watched it fall nearly all the way back speaks volumes, fallen in love with BOO I feel. Such passion often leads to a costly divorce..........in more ways than one perhaps!. "Fun" position, okay W, ha ha, lol, whatever..........Not sure there is any room for disappointment in the BOO TU on Thursday.
Stopped out of SUK2, after a day, lol. Doesn't beat my record of being stopped out on the same day with BEG, but at least you managed a profit!. Well done. Better than most - you can put it towards a ltr. of petrol!.
Stay in touch
CM
Took a fun position in the stock the market loves to hate today at 67p , Boohoo, as per my rant of a few days ago
Found out some of the short positions have been closed, 2 days before the trading update, why ?
Fingers crossed on that one
Hi CM
I got stopped out on my SUK2 this morning, i moved my stop to my entry price because of the volatility, but i did made a grant total of £ 1.42 profit. Yee Haa
Reconsidering the short oil trade at the moment, sleepy Joe Biden is set to announce the US will stop buying energy products from Russia, oil has already spiked to $ 131 as i type.
I have a funny feeling our very own sleepy Boris Johnson will follow suit & stop the UK buying russian energy products, that will give us £ 2.50 per litre at the pumps, and £ 1.75 per litre for heating oil, ouch
interesting times
Good morning W.
Another interesting day ahead I think. A day off for me, so I hope to get out reasonably shortly. I work 4 days a week these days, since last summer, although if the mess really hits the fan I may have to review that and return to 5 days; the easiest way to help financially if it comes to it. Life is about enjoying it as much as we can whilst we can, not about chasing finances only to find we've lost our sense of perspective to what really matters, a fact lost on many and only becomes real when adversity hits, we can't turn the clock back, (I can speak from a degree of experience).
Thanks re. Fibonacci Retracement, I may take a look some time.
I use HL for my trading. I did use SVS but changed because I wasn't happy. Just as well, they collapsed not too long after, and no, nothing to do with me.........I didn't have THAT much invested in them!.
Are you going to put a short on oil as suggested if it went above $125?. Some frightening suggestions this morning it could go up to $300. It is the cost of filling the car which at present is hurting me most.
Have a good day.
CM
Hi CM
I hear you, keep it sensible & keep it fun, some people on the boards are prepared to lose their shirts & more which i find very ' interesting'
I don't know who you use for trading but I use Hargreaves Lansdown for trading & IG index for spread betting, the IG site has a surprisingly good charting package & its free
The Fibonacci Retracement is as you say just another tool, google it, it's really boring, but traders & the market use it to identify support & resistance levels.
Basically pick 2 points, 1 high, 1 low
the high i picked was the high of the FTSE 100 at 7688
the low was the low after the market collapsed because of coronavirus at 4778
The Fibonacci Retracement grid just's draws 6 horizontal lines across your chart in the following percentages, giving you the corresponding FTSE levels
0%. Top
23.6%
38.2%
50%
61.8%
100%. Bottom
When the index is falling it may get support at these level, or may be not, but because other traders are watching these levels it is best to know where they are, so you can set limits & stops etc & as they say, knowledge is power
Hope that make some sort of sense
Good evening W.
I had a buy limit this morning at 470, then feared I would miss it so increased it twice up to 480 before reducing it to 478, executed at just under 477. Then saw it rise and fall back to below what I paid by day close. We just never know what is going to happen as you yourself have found out on a number of occasions. Not too unduly bothered at paying around 7p more than what I could have, although, it was nearly 20p less than what I could have at its' high. Won't make a lot of difference in the long run..........or short run possibly. I have doubled what I had before today £wise; still peanuts to many but enough for me to sleep (reasonably) easy.......at least for the time being. Don't invest more than what we are prepared and/or afford to lose, I really would feel uneasy at putting in more. For many folk that would be far more, and many would laugh at me for the amount I have in here, that is up to them of course, water off a ducks' back to me.
I have heard of Fibo retracements but can't remember too much about them. It seemed a little confusing. Another tool in the box. If you have the time perhaps you could help me understand them, but it will have to be in words of one syllable I'm afraid. I don't understand the percentages you have given and what they mean.
Dow is down nearly 800 points, 2.37%, NASDAQ 482 points, 3.62%, doesn't bode well for FTSE open tomorrow. FTSE future showing down over 60 points, around 1%. Means little until the market opens and what news there is over night. Surprised FTSE recovered so much during the day, may be folks were desperately trying to breathe life into it. We'll see.
Regards
CM
Fibo retracement levels to watch on the FTSE
From recent hight at 7688 to low of 4778. on. 23 /03/21
1. 23%. 7001
2. 38%. 6577
3. 50%. 6233
4. 61 % 5890
Grabbed a few SUK2 @ 469.87 just under 7000 on the Index
Will double that down if FTSE gets to 6800
W.
Crazy market indeed
When oil futures started trading 11pm yesterday ( sunday ) it spiked to $137 within moments, madness
Just in the process of filling the gap down to 118 ish, which is bouncing the market & the US futures
I think the markets are just looking to the oil price for direction at the moment, Oil up = market down & vice versa
Kicking my self, wanted to load up on a few on my divi favourites, had my finger over the buy button of LGEN @ 228p this morning and decided not too, 240p as i type this. AAAHHH
May join you back in the SUK2 trade, i can see the nice round number of 7000 on the FTSE as a resistance area,
Safe trading
W.
Bought in some more at 476/477p early this morning with a limit order. Saw price rise a good deal early on, since when it has fallen back. Dow futures is showing down 500 points but maybe priced in already. Wait and see time. Volatile market
gla
CM
Hi W.
Not much up on SUK2 so far, around 6-7% when costs are taken into account. I only have £1000 in here, which to many is of course absolute peanuts. However, I'd rather gain a little than risk losing a lot and I am always of the opinion that it is better to hold back initially to judge which way the wind is blowing and then average UP, not down. I may increase what I have in here depending on the circumstances and as you say the market is likely to bounce should there be any good news coming out of Ukraine, although that may be short term.
I mentioned in a previous post about the prospect of a recession and I stick to that; I fear it is only a matter of time. I don't think a lot has been made of it thus far. Technically of course a recession is defined as a period of two consecutive quarters of negative growth. How deep any recession will be is open to debate and how long it will last. Is the market in a better position now than in the last recession?, hmm, I fear not.. Compared to the 2008-2009 financial crash when the FTSE fell from around 6700 to well below 4000 (from what I can remember)?, difficult to say. What news is there to hold the FTSE up?, will any rise just be a blip or will it be more sustained?. I just can't see it, much that I would like to say different.
I am partly using SUK2 as a hedge for my holding in IGG which is/may be getting hit unfairly, but is getting hit all the same, but may recover, at least to some degree. Hopefully there will be some balance as there has been over the last week, gains/losses being countered.
How far is the FTSE likely to fall?. It is close to falling 10% of late, approaching correction territory. Another 10%, down to around the 6100 mark will take it into a bear market. Will that happen?, it seems a long way to fall from where it is now, well, who knows?. I can see no reason whatsoever why the FTSE will regain much ground. However, I have to be ready to bail out of SUK2 if necessary.
Re BOO. Well, I was invested some years ago and made a reasonable profit over the time. I think I sold out at around the 170p or so mark, having seen it above 200p, saw it drop to 130p then over time rise to the highs. One may think that because it has fallen so very far that that must be around the bottom now, but the market doesn't work like that. Any hint of bad news come the update this coming week and it will be given a kicking again. Sometimes companies get hit unfairly, but as I have said before the market can stay irrational for longer than we can stay solvent. My personal thoughts are that we need to move away from fast fashion where things are bought, worn once then dumped. It is largely led by vanity and isn't environmentally friendly. Disposable income is going to be far, far less.
Interesting comments of yours re. oil. I am watching futures on oil, FTSE and DOW.
Need to go.
Good luck, stay safe, stay well
CM
Hi DM
Interesting week just gone; I’ve been watching from a far due to other commitments
You are right with the ‘buy the dip crowd’ some of these guys are going to lose vast amounts of money, they must have never seen company’s go bust before, to keep averaging down time after time is absolute crazy.
I got out of my S&P 500 ( 3 ULS ) + Nasdaq ( LQQS ) shorts on Monday morning at about 3% up, this was a little disappointing because overnight, when you cant trade, they were 10% up, but it was a gain
My BP idea didn’t get off the ground, BP announced they were dumping their Rosneft stake on Sunday before the market opened on Monday, so the shares got hammered straight out the gate, I did manage to grab a few % with a quick trade in and out on Friday.
Good call on SUK2 this week mate, must be up big time for you now, keep an eye out for any good news regarding the Ukraine situation, any hint of a ceasefire will bounce the market, knocking that one down
Funny you should mention Boohoo, I’ve had a couple of trades on that one last year, THG also, both very similar.
Many stocks deserve all that is coming to them but I feel Boohoo could be a slightly different story, the company is profitable, it is growing, and it has very little debt, but the market absolutely hates it, it has 6% of the shares sold short, every time the stock tries a run it gets kicked to death again by the market
The family that started this company has a large stake, add the 3 largest institutional holders to this equates to around 50 % of the stock, for me this is a no brainer, take it private.
Buy the other 50 % of the shares between them and tell the stock market to sod off.
I bet the owners love having their names dragged through the mud every other week in the papers, “ Billionaire owners treating people like ****e in their sweatshops “ etc. etc.
Their trading update is out next week, 10th March, definitely watching that one
I will also be shorting oil if it gets over $125, at that sort of level it will cause massive demand destruction. The spot price oil is the price you see on the news and in the papers that is the price for immediate delivery, traders don’t trade this, they trade on the futures market.
The futures market for oil is in backwardation at the moment which means if you buy oil for delivery next month it is cheaper than now, the month after is cheaper than that etc.
Oil for delivery march next year is $ 97, so the market expects the price of oil to fall.
Obviously when the market is trading these prices move all the time
This will be a cracking trade if they can sort out this Russian – Ukraine war at any sort of a amicable level,
Some of my favourite divi stocks have been beaten to death this week, I will start picking a few up soon, not as a trade, as a long term investment.
Keep safe
W.