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Birddog - so we have two businesses, Biomass , previously valued at £238M, if run rates can be expanded, maybe more.
Southend - where the cheeky 25% minority bid in the spring valued the Airport at say £800M.
So potential two assets that could be valued at £1M, for the balance sheet at some time in the future.and yes there are the liabilities to consider.
There is further cap ex required, it's broken down in the rns 4th June, and is substantially lower over the next 3/4 years than past infrastructure costs. For this year only £2m for Energy and £10M for Aviation.
So why look to monetise the Energy Division over the next 18 - 24 months ?
My views
- It probably wasn't the initial plan ( though plans can change )
- It will likely need more cash.
- STOB has no real idea when the Airport will be back to YR20 passenger numbers, I'd suggest YR21 is a write off and in YR22, hopefully they can get back to pre covid passenger numbers, so in effect two years are lost.
- STOB has an element of control over the Energy Division, enabling it to present to the market a business that has matured and is cash generative within time frames.
- There maybe capacity limits on Biomass delivery past 2M pa, longer term. The BOD see 10M passengers, pa through Southend as an achievable long term goal.
-So the potential growth value still sits at Southend, and that's where the long term value is seen.
If no vaccine comes along, its all bets off, but that's the case for many Companies.
If we get an early working vaccine, say in the Autumn, then, the dark clouds could pass by very quickly.
Be great if they could manage to find a way through and keep both Divisions, grow the revenues, and with reduced ongoing costs then the cash will flow through to the bottom line.
Emmm - I am a glass half full type of guy lol.
gla
G
The vaccine could be here sooner than you think Gerry , fingers crossed.
PRESS: Positive News Coming On AstraZeneca-Oxford Covid Vaccine - ITV
Wed, 15th Jul 2020 14:27Alliance News
(Alliance News) - Positive news on initial trials of the University of Oxford's potential Covid-19 vaccine that has been licensed to AstraZeneca could be announced as soon as Thursday, according to ITV on Wednesday.
The project has started Phase III of the human trials to assess how the vaccine works in a large number of people over the age of 18, but has yet to report Phase I trial results.
"I am hearing there will be positive news soon (perhaps tomorrow) on initial trials of the Oxford Covid-19 vaccine that is backed by AstraZeneca," ITV's Robert Peston said in a blog post on Wednesday.
Yep Volcano - i read the Robert Peston report on the Oxford Covid vaccine progress, more info on "T cells"
https://www.itv.com/news/2020-07-15/positive-news-is-coming-on-oxford-covid-19-vaccine-writes-robert-peston
Crossed fingers.
G
Hey TF - that's the beauty of these bb's, we all see things differently, it would be a very strange place if we didn't.
If we all thought the same it would be nigh on impossible to create a genuine market for trading.
The road is long and winding for STOB and We've had a coup,e of detours added in.
Still with the cash raise, it will allow us many more months to debate matter's. Whilst chatting i'm going to make sure I pick up profits, on trading dips.
Today i retained my profits in top sliced shares, last time i took the cash off the table. Not sure which way i'll go next time.
Cheers
G
TF - as you say the cash raise provides breathing space, and maybe keeps any cheeky bids on the back burner.
Anything could happen, after all it's STOB. It's a case of waiting for news on a vaccine, for the airport. Though if and when it comes today's Airline Sector performance, seems to indicate, that many shares will bounce nicely. S
There are some coiled springs out there.
Think TOSCA will be expecting a positive return on their £122m investment, and may have an influence here. Their b/e position is 70p. So some way to go for them.
G
Monday, 13 July 2020 - Community News
Times Reporter
by Times Reporter - Reporter
editor@leightimes.co.uk
Wizz Air resume flights at London Southend Airport
SOUTHEND Airport has welcomed the return of Wizz Air flights
Share price is holding up better than i thought
Looks like 28p was bottom for now ,nice.
Volcano - Yes it quickly bounced off that level.
I've not traded today, but am sitting here, pondering the timing of the Lancet report on the Early-stage human trial data on the vaccine being developed by Astra Zeneca and Oxford University due out some time on Monday.
If it's out early doors and is positive, then I can see a bit of a bun fight on Cyclicals Monday morning, and it may be difficult to get a price. That said it could be less positive - who knows ?
The markets are likely to react to any good news, kiv - Moderna started its Phase II trial in May and expects to start a Phase III trial on July 27.
It's a pity the EU leaders are meeting atm to discuss the latest Stimulus package, as any disagreement there could put a spanner in the works for Monday.
I'm looking at a couple this afternoon, and considering options. Knowing me I'll sit on my hands, I generally like to have my trading pot back into cash for the weekend, but if the right price pops up I might have a little nibble lol.
gla
G
Yes Gerry agree the markets are prepared to reward any positive news on a vaccine. However, thus far we have not seen anything to suggest lasting antibody protection. I feel we may not get a vaccine for a long time.
We are some way away from a workable vaccine. Even then it would some months to work through the various priority groups, before it is available to all. Could be some time yet.
In the meantime for me its no planes, trains, buses or taxi's.
Both main holidays this year, have been re booked for next year.
Whilst we wait, for me it's a case of looking for quick trades. Each time one of the key players in the search for the vaccine pops out a review, there's hopefully an opportunity.
Didn't buy in anywhere this evening, so it's a chilled weekend. Let's see what Monday brings.
gla
G
This could now go either way. The results of the most promising candidate to date will not be with us until October, so unless one of the other candidates gains ground, we won't see much vaccine related SP growth for a while. The Dow Jones is now a deathtrap waiting to crash at any moment.
https://www.echo-news.co.uk/news/18593690.easyjet-recommences-flights-southend-airport/
nice find Gerry, markets are subdued.
Too much Geo political stuff going on today with Uk / China tensions, and UK leaders struggling to get the stimulus deal over the line.
Cancelling out positive news from the Oxford vaccine trial.
G
sorry EU leaders struggling with their stimulus deal.
G
Stob has been kind to me these last few weeks. I've been in and out between 28-32p. Back in today... Hopefully it can go well past the 32p resistance this time. GLA
But the Vaccine still a long way away and we may need more than one dose.
https://southendairport.com/flights/departures-and-arrivals
The above page is live again, 4 flights in today and 4 flights out.
Some way away from pre covid times, but at least its a start.
G
Yes Gerry looks like we are seeing the green shoots of normality. Think if can get further flights scheduled by the autumn we will see a rerate of the SP. Maybe we have hit the floor?
Last summer flights were between 25 - 40 ish for arrivals and departures - so circa 50 - 80 movements a day. So it's a start, at least the airport is back up and running, though perhaps in a limited form. Be good to hear from anyone who has a a flight booked in the next month or so, to provide feedback on the ground.
Let see what August brings, perhaps Brits. will look to take holidays deeper into the autumn, depending on how things pan out virus wise.
G
Gerry, once we get to the point where people feel safe to mix again flights will quickly pick up and i anticipate that will be sooner than people think. Treatments are improving and the death rates will be tiny by the autumn imv . I bought some sng yesterday because I was really impressed by their release and that could prove to be our saviour in several ways. We shall see. Atb and good luck.
It's been really quiet trading wise here for the last week or so, no price action.
Only 221 trades as I type, with less than £300K's worth traded.
Still Southend is gradually coming out of hibernation, 7 departures and 7 arrivals scheduled today. Small fry, but a start.
G
Bought in 8k seeker I this morning. No brainier and will do double minimum next month or so.
well timed mate,
Stobart Group Ltd
STOB
30.72 GBX
+1.12 (3.78%)