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Sami, I agree with your comments...
1. Buy low sell high, wait and be patient.
2. Don’t do Panic sale.
If I'd have followed Gerrys advice 2 or 3 years ago I would have seen my investment going from 300p down to 30p..
I will buy when I'm good and ready and if I need a financial advisor I won't be asking Gerry.
Hi TF - yes re reduced bank debt. There is a full breakdown of how the fund raise is being utilised and details of the repayment of facility B, together with, planned short term and medium term outgoings, and the initial reduction in facility A, within the prospectus - it's all there in the 4th June rns.
G
Moniman,
TBH, Garry never said follow his opinion. He never recommended. As far as i can see here he just share his opinion like anyone else. If anyone take that as an advise then what can he do ? Even though he said DYOR.
Moni - you know I bought big several years ago at £1.00 we disagreed on my buy in around then, I then top sliced in the mid £1.50's
I've traded STOB many times, mostly between £1.00 - £1.15, though a couple of times at £1.60, and more recently at lower levels.But your memory fails you again my friend, yes I have been glass half full here, but it's not my modus operandi to chuck out sp predictions. There is a difference between being positive than making recommendations either to buy, or in your case to sell.
STOB did rise to £3 for a while, I didn't buy on that run up, I reduced at £2.20 and took a couple of trades off the table. I don't recall recommending you to buy at £3 do you ?
If we are going to start off again on ramps and recommendations I'll have to come back at you and remind you of your 200+ posts on FLYB when you got yourself in a massive hole over there, that's ramping is it not in its purist form. Just when I felt we were starting to get on a little better you go and ruin it, my friend, which is s bit of a shame.
I don't process to be a financial adviser, nor do I believe in recommendations, people make up their own minds.
G
Tosca holdings RNS out.
Previously they held circa 77.1m shares, before the cash raise. For which they bought in at a considerably higher sp.
Now publishing their holding at 27.97% of the new increased shares ( 625m ) which by my rough calculations gives them a new holding of circa 174.8m shares.
Looks like they invested an additional 100m shares in the raise.
Expect them to have a strategy here to create long term value for their Investors, from this latest investment in STOB, that's a big move.
No recommendation, just facts, just saying Moni.
Gla
G
Sami, if you go back over Gerrys thousands of Stobart posts you see how he has pushed a very bullish agenda here for years potentially sucking in loads of punters?...Gerry doesn't take criticism well but enjoys posting biblical length stories about stobart on a daily basis...basically a self confessed Stobart expert that has presided over a car crash..Beware of people like Gerry throwing stones while sitting in a glass house..!!!..Don't pander to him as his ego is already too big...!!!
Finance News
GLOBAL MARKETS-Stocks skip higher ahead of U.S. jobs data
Thu, 2nd Jul 2020 10:09Thomson Reuters
Moni - are you suggesting every glass half full post on every BB should be removed ?
Feel free to re post where I've told you invest, or where I make sp predictions.
All posters can glance through my posting history, they may wish to take a look at your FLYB history bet 15th Nov 2019, through to and past the Connect t/o.
Btw for openness I've just closed out my trade from yesterday for a decent return. I still hold my long term "free carry" shares, and will continue to look for opportunities here.
Expect I'll be back in to add sooner rather than later. Yes I do like both the Energy and Southend projects and wish STOB every success.
G
G
Easy two penny for share profits , nice
STOB Bid:33.95p Offer:34.75p Change:2.578
Hi Vlocano - good to see you got a trade in too today.
I bought in yesterday afternoon - expecting firm news on the Air Bridges, and the likelihood of positive TR 1's. Wondering whether I closed my trade too early, but hey ho - profit is profit, got 5.6% , it's very helpful not having to pay stamp duty here.
Healthy Returns - agree the £40m additional commitment from Tosca, shows positive support here, doubt very much that they took any notice of anything posted here. But I guess I'll soon be accused of providing them with "financial advice " by a particular poster !!
More TR 1's to come - so am looking for another trading entry here. Also holding strong with my long term shares.
G
Hi Gerry, looks like it is going to be a good news from USA,but i closed all my trades anyway. BVC - more than doubled since my first trade at 45p .
LONDON MARKET MIDDAY: FTSE 100 Drives Higher Ahead Of Key US Jobs Data
Wall Street is on course for a higher start on Thursday. The Dow Jones is called up 0.8%, the S&P 500 up 0.6% and the Nasdaq Composite up 0.4%.
In focus this afternoon is the US jobs report for June at 1330 BST - brought forward from the usual release day of Friday due to this week's Independence Day holiday.
Consensus is for 3.0 million jobs to have been added in June, up from 2.5 million in May, according to FXStreet. The unemployment rate is expected to edge down to 12.3% from 13.3%.
For context, April and March combined saw a loss of over 21 million jobs.
English holidaymakers can embark on overseas trips from Saturday as quarantine restrictions are lifted and travel advice is updated.
The 14-day self-isolation policy for people returning to or visiting England from destinations such as Spain, France, Italy and Germany is being lifted, the Department for Transport (DfT) announced.
Meanwhile, the Foreign and Commonwealth Office (FCO) will exempt a number of countries from its advisory against all non-essential travel, which has been in place since March 17 due to the coronavirus pandemic.
Blimey can't believe this is still above 30p....I just can't see that 3 year low of 28p holding out...I'll check back in a few days as I feel its only a matter of time before another banana skin puts the skids under this car crash..don't see any upside here at the moment to take a punt just yet...but will keep a little powder dry for now...
Pleased some are making profits here - I sold taking a 15% loss to invest elsewhere. It was successful as it fell less than Stob - if that is how success is measured?
Tav - CRST bounces around a fair bit, the price you got after the results may well give you a decent return in the medium to longer term. When it flys it flys, It shot up in Apl. and in June, to over 2.90.
Think you got a good price on SMDS, I am looking for a re entry there, and you are still up after yesterday's retrace.
They've both been good for a decent trades since March, and are in my group of trading shares, I'll probably be joining you in either or both of them over coming days and weeks.
I'm expecting STOB to find another of it's trading ranges, as things settle down from the cash raise, it was great to trade between 1.00 - 1.10 with 5p giving 5%. Now at say 30 - 35, 1.5p gives up a 5% profit. Others may not agree but we need blue and red days here, for great trading opportunities.
Yes a lot more shares in issue - now 625 m but the majority, of the cash raise shares, in excess of 200m have gone to institutions, who are circa 20% down atm, apart from Invesco who seem to be looking to reduce, the rest, are more likely looking towards holding for a longer term recovery.
I'll be looking for my second post cash raise trade here next week.
gla
G
Gerry, down 3% on smds . Also was tempted into boo and that was a mistake. Plus is the plus point for me today.
Hope you are doing well and good luck.
Tav - low 280's for SMDS should be fine medium term. Only reason I didn't get in yesterday was my TLW trade took most of the day to make 1.5p and circa 5%. Took to late in the afternoon to close it and by that time I had missed the bottom on SMDS.
Am holding off on trading today, it's red overall, out there, and US futures look weak, ATM. I looked at BOO like the retrace but will the investigation continue to weigh on it or will it bounce back quickly - probably if I don't put some in lol.
Good shout on PLUS, I think Volcano trades that one.
This market gives then takes - red then blue then red then blue. Great for trading ATM.
G
https://www.pressreader.com/category/tag-540250998
interesting piece in the Irish Independent. STOB will need to continue to put cash into the airline to avoid it collapsing. If it does collapse, they will have to settle the liabilities on the aircraft leases, totalling over $100m.
birddog816 - from your 10 posts here I'm taking it that you are bearish on STOB, or at least unsure as to how it will all pan out.
That's understandable, we are not dealing with a ULVR or maybe a GSK or a RB. here, and the future is uncertain with STOB.
The STOB BOD, kindly provided a detailed breakdown of the position relating to Stobart Air & Propius within the " Placing & Open Offer" rns dated 4th June. The Information was made available to the market and to all who wished to participate in the cash raise, which included the Institutional Investors. It also detailed why the raise was required and where the funds were to be applied. I mentioned this in my post ( 2/7/20 - 09.38).
The position as regards the subsidiaries is less than ideal, I mentioned that in my post ( 25/06/2020 ) I seem to recall saying that the Connect deal did originally make sense for STOB as it de - risked the balance sheet somewhat. But like rubber balls the subsidiaries have bounced back to STOB.
The lease committments are £15.4m pa until April 2027, the subsidiaries net cashflow projections for the current year are also detailed in the 4th June rns.
The Aer Lingius franchise extension is due to be renegotiated by Dec 2022. If this does not come to pass then there is a break clause in the leases with a break payment.
G
Hi Gerry,
I guess I just see it as it is. For the MD of the airline to make such a statement and for that to get to the newspaper indicates to me that this is not a rosy picture. The Aer Lingus deal is Franchise, meaning that Stobart Air, and now by default, Stobart Group take the risk on passenger numbers and yield. They just use the Aer Lingus brand and ticketing system. There is no possibility of this airline making money anytime soon, or for that matter Southend Airport. Can the energy and rail STOB divisions counter balance this? If not, they will need more cash to feed the losses. Where will this come from? The hard numbers of the financial results say a lot more than the narrative from the bod. The main issue is that they cannot allow the airline to fail as is stated by the MD in the leaked memo and backed up by the STOB press releases, or the liabilities on the leases crystallises. There will be a short and sharp Indian summer for Southend Airport as some holiday traffic will operate, but this is for a couple of months only. As you have said many times Gerry, this is all about personal opinions. My prediction is that this will be south of 10p by Christmas and a very possible insolvency. Eventually STOB will run out of cash, it's just a matter of when. BD
Thanks Birddog - there are challenges, but your figure of £100m, is I think based on the overall period of Apl 2020 through to Apl 2027. There is the break clause as I mentioned, and we will have to wait to see as regards the Aer Lingus franchise extension, as its 17 months away.
The rns I mentioned earlier, if I remember correctly doesn't factor flights or income from Southend until spring 2021, in it's cashflow projections, for the Group. If passenger numbers, come back sooner all well and good.
They want and need to dump the Rail and Civils, asap.
The aim is to get the Energy Division back up to pre covid revenues within the time frames outlined. The BOD has confirmed it is looking to monetise the Energy Division by 18 - 24 months, I take that to be a sale, or some sort of buy in.
Among some mis steps along the way - much of the challenge for STOB over recent years has been the capex required, to get the Energy Division and Southend to the levels achieved just prior to Covid.
This trading year capex for the airport is to be only £10m, and the Energy Division a mere £2m. Remember the Energy Division was independently re valued back in the summer of 2019.
Its great fun here lol.
gla
G
Hi Gerry,
Yes i did trade PLUS and I was done by 09:30 this morning ,and i have been out all afternoon.
Now i am looking STOB for tomorrow , i think worth a trade , you never know.
Over HFD this morning i did mention sell on result and i wonder anyone took any notice.
i have got a big list for tomorrow , MCRO, STOB, HFD, TLW,MKS ,BOO and many more.
TF - the rns confirms there are. it's the same rns I've mentioned to you before. It's worth a read.
Gives the position warts and all. With detailed info on the bod's plans to take STOB forward.
It's the position as presented to the Institutional Investors.The forward strategy ( external / unexpected issues apart ) is there in black and white. It's everyone's individual choice, as to whether they wish to read it,
It's not compulsory, just an option, lol.
G
@Moniman I know your not a big fan of Stob so what is your actually buy in price and why do you see that figure as a good time to get in? Been watching this for a while with possibilty of dipping toes in ty.