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Slip of the tongue, forgot how soon 3rd quarter ends or just extremely confident?
Not long to find out.
Key point for me is that all three companies will have agreed to that beeing tweeted, including the comment about project going well. tells me we are on track and news soon.
Https://twitter.com/soundenergyplc/status/1702255899878777321?t=D8S5UFI5qUaEZcdppSoDjw&s=19
Where can I find this tweet of every one in the room
I agree....but an important one.
I believe that may have been a slip of the tongue, although the hope is there.
the important thing is it IS coming.
the recent picture tweet of Sound, Ital and Calvalley all in one room was significant.
Yes, I picked up on that date in the interview. Only a few days to wait then :)
I hate to dwell on the past but the abandoned 3rd well you mentioned is one of the biggest reasons JP failed. We all knew the risks but were meant to have 3 fully funded rolls of the dice. The reality was the money was gone after TE10. It seems that long ago now I can't recall the figures for TE11, was it the M5 structure?
Over the last few years It's felt like any progress has always been hampered by something. Be it delays, tax issues, bonds, death spirals etc. But I do believe once these deals get signed & the LNG plant is completed there will finally be some momentum in the share price. I look forward to the TE4 spud RNS & hopefully in the future we can have a crack at the M5 structure.
To be completed by this time next week then, this quarter?
Agreed, we almost certainly (you can never be certain on AIM) not reach the heights of £1 per share. the Market cap would be in the 2Billion range.
However, just as a market cap of 2Billion is too high, so a market cap of 17 Million (today) is way too low.
I can see justification for a market cap in the 400/500 million range once Phase 1 and Phase 2 cash flows start pumping and a couple of successful wells.
so an sp in the 20-25p range seems achievable (but not this year(probably))
Hi KTF - I didnt pay that obv, I think I was in for about 250K altogether - I got greedy and when the 1st of the 3 well campaign failed its was like catching a falling knife, and then the 3rd well got cancelled and puff.....it was all gone. I have never sold a share - I dont think we will see a pound again due to dilution, but a decent double didget return once/if another discovery is made will see me able to retire...Finaly !
Goza, wow, 1.6 million at £1, that's some paper loss.
you must have b@lls of steel to have held on!
nice to see someone from the Rah Rah days who isn't bleeting and posting negative BS.
guess that's because you haven't got a sale and solidified loss to try to justify.
Goza172 , you are not alone here, many have been sucked in by uneconomic truths from the last ceo & associates . I feel Graham & team have worked hard here & wish them well in bringing this back into an investable company. Gla
I haven’t posted in a while – I have been invested since 2010 – held 1.6M shares when it went to a £1.02, and never sold. Most would say I was greedy and at first glance you would be right bit there were other reasons I did not sell..I have been adding since though !
Fast forward, people are saying that the company is in better shape, better management, saved from the brink etc….
I work in the oil and gas industry as I have said before, at a medium level, so I understand that delays happen, timelines slip, etc etc, its not great but this is what happens, even to oil majors with deep pockets.
I like Graham – he is not as polished as our previous CEO but he knows the game and bit by bit he is delivering.
I had a chat with GL a while ago and without going into specifics, he is frustrated at the lack of resources available to him but at the same time he is relishing the challenge.
I still really believe in this company- we still have a wee way to go but we are heading in the right direction. Getting phase 2 FID over the line, the drill program sanctioned, and then a decent discovery will propel our company, that I have no doubt.
As sad as it is, the geopolitical issues and its effects on crude prices are only helping our potential and its not likely to end any time soon.
Keep the faith Sounders – good things will come in 2024 – I remain positive..
Don´t forget that £1.4 million of the cash balance is held as collateral for a bank guarantee against licence commitments.
In addition to that, management stated the following:
"Subject to the draw down in full of the Convertible Notes, the Company is now funded for its near-term working capital requirements until year end 2023."
I assume that, absent any injection of cash, cash balances (net of restricted cash) will be close to cero (0) by the end of the year.
Regards
As at 31 August 2023, the Group had unaudited cash and short-term deposits of approximately £4.0 million.
In addition Sound can drawdown a further of £1.5 million of the £4.0 million senior unsecured convertible bond.
Fernan10, have you taken these figures into account in your calculations?
What cash position do you think Sound will have at the end of 2023?
Graham says that the cash position at present is the best that it has been for a long time.
I still have some doubts in relation to the terms of the Afriquia loan.
If SOU reduces its equity interest in the project, from 75% to 35%, it could be possible that the loan must be proportionately reduced. In that case, Afriquia could ask that the US$ 8 million of back costs to be received from Calvalley be applied to the partial repayment of the loan.
Regards
Excellent summary Fernan10.
So I am to understanding correctly that should we receive news of the Calvalley deal being across the line ('this quarter' as Graham mentions in interview this week) and with the collection of the US$ of 8 million back costs collected - Sound would be fully funded for 2024 should Phase 1 production slip to that extent?
One of bonds outstanding is in euros, not pounds.
Here are the current calc of funding required for 2024, should the phase 1 revenues are delayed until the end of next year:
FUNDING REQUIREMENTS FOR 2024
G&A expenses (£1.25 million per semester, similar to 1H 2023): £2.5 million X 1.23= US$ 3.1 million
Bond amortization due June 2024: €25.32 million X 5%: €1.25 million X 1.06= US$ 1.32 million
Bond amortization due Dec 2024: €25.32 million X 5%: €1.25 million X 1.06= US$ 1.32 million
Interest on bond payable in cash: €25.32 million X 2%: €0.5 million X 1.06= US$ 0.54 million
Total funding needs for 2024: US$ 6.3 million
Regards
Management has stated that, after the issue of the convertible bonds last June, our liquidity needs are met until end 2023.
If phase 1 revenues from Tendrara are delayed until the end of 2024, we will have a funding gap of c. US$ million 6.9 next year, as follows:
G&A expenses (£1.25 million per semester, similar to 1H 2023): £2.5 million
Bond amortization due June 2024: £25.32 million X 5%: £1.25 million
Bond amortization due Dec 2024: £25.32 million X 5%: £1.25 million
Interest on bond payable in cash: £25.32 million X 2%: £0.5 million
Total funding needs for 2024: £5.5 million X 1,25= US$ 6.9 million
It seems management plans to fund these expenditures with the receipt of US$ 8 million of phase 1 past costs from Calvalley (US$ 8 million net to Calvalley):
From the 1H 2023 report:
“In June the Company raised up to £4.0 million by way of a senior unsecured convertible bond instrument. The proceeds will, if fully drawn, provide funds for the Company to continue to execute its Phase 1 development of the Tendrara Production Concession and bridge group working capital liquidity ahead of receipt of a receivable as disclosed in the year end results and/or receipt of Phase 1 back costs from Calvalley if a partial divestment is ultimately completed.”
One expenditure that is still unfunded is the drilling of a mandatory exploration well in the Anoual license. We need to drill that well by January 2024 (see company´s news release on Dec 22, 2022)
The fact that Calvalley took a conservative approach in the farm out process (agreeing to fund only development expenditures and the drilling of the TE-4 exploration well, close to the planned infrastructure, and in both cases subject to a certain cap) was clearly a disappointment to management´s exploration plans. I´m sure SOU´s management had hoped to see the farm in partner funding the 3 high graded exploration prospects ready for drilling (SBK-1, TE-4 and M5 in the Anoual permit) instead of just 1.
This lack of interest in funding the M5 prospect (in spite of its attractive economics in the success case) also cast a shadow over the real value of the remaining prospects in the Tendrara and Anoual licenses.
Regards
Fernan
Graham was cool, he says the whole Truth and nothing but the Truth and I really mean it, like he said in so many words, “ He was generally going over again what’s been happening, plus half year results, the cold boxes being the newest example but 2024 is when it starts coming in “
Again to me after the Project progress meeting in Italy held recently with Calvalley, Sound Energy and Italifluid senior management including Mr DiPaulo - principal of ITAL fluids. Project is advancing well. #Tendrara #meeting #project. Great relationship and both looking for the same things. This project is getting Bigger and Bigger and like most companies recovering from Covid, Sound need money and now we’ve got it from the biggest bank in Morocco, that’s amazing they don’t need to if they don’t want to, reason is it has to be Big and successful. At the moment Sound share price is amazing, cheep as chips but with a more than healthy future, if I was a Billionaire I would be buying Billions at such a minute price, instead I aim to be a Millionaire like many Brothers.
Buy Buy Buy.
Good summary Ps. Another deadline looks to be missed. Hard to understand that the site foundations have been prepared for months with no equipment ready to go on them. Like building a house foundation and waiting six months for the bricks to turn up. Bad planning considering the urgency to get the plant up and running for Morocco and providing cash flow to Sound. Coordination with the contractors to get the site producing as quick as possible seems lacking to me. Pleased to see KBR involved in the flow line design, as having worked for them, feel confident they will do a good job.
Anyway, another waiting game by the looks of it
Before you try to spin this 'biggest loan ever for a gas project' means in Morocco!
You mean saying things like:
we'll get the tax issues sorted. guess what - they did.
we'll attract a partner - guess what - they did
we'll execute phase1 - guess waht - they are, all components complet, many is Spain awaiting delivery to site.
we'll get the biggest loan ever for a gas project - guess what - they did.
that's not even the complete list, but even this short list shows a hell of a lot of delivery on promises to me!