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I may take what you say more seriously if you didn’t continuously post negative carp every day and also on the other channel Advn.
The key here is potential. What can we hit if and when the drill gets in the ground.
Always was and always will be.
Of course what do we have to give away to get there?
And how many drills will it take?
You keep posting your negatives I for one am seeing this one out!!
You keep falling for the same old slight of hand from GL. he keeps talking about the company this and the company that. what you as SH should be asking yourself and indeed him (although no way he'll answer your question) is what about me as an existing SH? The fact is there is so much existing dulition still to come from warrants, CB converstion etc, added to no doubt further dilution ahead. A c.30% dilution of equity or asset would bring a sp target down from 4.5p to 3p alone. That's merely a reflection of ownership of future cashlows / net profit to each share based on an assumed / baseline performance, and makes no judgement on the performance of the company (which let's be honest is abismal).
So, you think phase 1 revenue of 10million net to sound, phase 2 revenue of 40 million net to sound, a fully paid for exploration drill AND all the other prospective acreage (remember 20inch pipeline) are only worth a market cap of 80 million?
Really?
a PE of circa 1.6
seems a little low to me, but each to their own agenda.
Morning all
Surely The reason the target price dropped from 7.3 to 4.6 was because of the Calvalley deal, it was a re rate after giving away 53%
D2k
Table, you don't seem to grasp the basics, despite seemingly having been a SH in this basketcase for years. Everytime GL and team dilute equity or assets, the forecast sp targets are slashed. As I stated before, my view is even if a finance deal is ever agreed, once the details are published around interest rates etc, the revised sp angel target will be 2p or lower. I can not recall an in-house (paid by SOU, how impartial re they.....?) broker target that was reached or exceeded. Perhaps you do....?
Very rarely do companies hit or exceed brokers notes assessment over the long term it’s more of exaggerated potential, more in hope than in reality ..imho
If you’re a shareholder then I’m a chinaman !
If the deal goes through that’s the start of the real action here. Having been negative for so long that should make you feel more positive surely.
"The broker report is for next 12 months & gives zero value to assets like Sidi. No one can predict where SP will be in 2-3 years. Just those of us that hope it's higher & you pair that hope the company goes under."
I am a SOU shareholder. Why would I want it to go under? You say nobody can predict where the SP will go and I agree. But then a poster predicts a 20x SP increase and you take umbridge at me for calling them out. What sort of logic is that?
Yes, the broker reports are for 12 months but I notice they disappear off the SOU website once they are stale. Fortunately the internet never forgets:
9 August 2021, target price 8.2p "Afriquia deal confirms financing to first commercial gas"
https://web.archive.org/web/20210810121340/https://www.soundenergyplc.com/media/1689/1-soundenergyagfinalsw.pdf
3 May 2022, target price 8.2p "Gas development starts in Morocco"
https://web.archive.org/web/20230608111937/https://www.soundenergyplc.com/media/hw0mk0kh/01jp_sou-2022-05-03-flash-note.pdf
9 June 2022, target price 7.3p "£4m raise provides running room"
https://web.archive.org/web/20230608120926/https://www.soundenergyplc.com/media/lhwnbz0n/energy-flash-note.pdf
17 August 2022, target price 7.2p "Moroccan operations update"
https://web.archive.org/web/20220817143528/https://www.soundenergyplc.com/media/bphbexwi/sou-2022-08-17-morocco-update.pdf
25 May 2023, target price 7.3p "Tax dispute settled, project moving forward"
https://www.soundenergyplc.com/media/z5zb2q55/sp-angel-sou-2023-05-25-nav-update.pdf
15 Jun 2023, target price 4.6p "Funding secured and likely partner revealed"
https://www.soundenergyplc.com/media/q1bbt4co/01jp_sou-2023-06-15-nav-update-1.pdf
28 Jun 2023, target price 4.6p "Debt project funding offer received"
https://www.soundenergyplc.com/media/k2bphqwc/01jp_sou-2023-06-28-flash-note.pdf
4 October 2023, target price 4.6p "Completing partner talks will unwind discount"
https://www.soundenergyplc.com/media/1dlkdtn5/sou-2023-10-04-nav-update.pdf
I haven't noticed any of those 12 month predictions materialising. Instead over the past two years the share price is down 50%, the target price is down 44%, the number of shares on issue has increased by 50%, a three-well drilling program has turned into 1 well, SOU has been forced to give away 53% of its assets (which the broker was oblivious to just three weeks before it happened), and they are *still* in big trouble if the Calvalley deal isn't closed by year end.
It's hardly any surprise the share price is being hammered, for reasons that SP Angel themselves document. I sincerely hope the deal gets done. I will be selling the last of my holdings into the rise and getting the flock out of here. Best of luck to whoever picks up my shares.
KTF that was for you obvs.
Ltd
Thanks for your response, whether you are right or wrong I appreciate your reply
Regards
D2k
The broker report is for next 12 months & gives zero value to assets like Sidi. No one can predict where SP will be in 2-3 years. Just those of us that hope it's higher & you pair that hope the company goes under.
Ktf's market cap projection implies a share price four times that of SOU's own broker.
Dangler,
it will depend on where you see sound sitting, mainly upstream or mainly exploration.
see below
Oil & Gas E&P 6.05
Oil & Gas Equipment & Services 13.67
Oil & Gas Midstream 12.46
Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing 8.09
this is for US listed Oil and gas as of this month.
sorry, don't have the equivalent for UK listed to hand.
let's take the lowest (exploration) = 6.5, so on 50 million (net revenue) Phase1 and phase 2 equates to 325 million market cap. obviously you can play with these numbers and UK listed will be dififerent, but the takeaway is that 16 million is crazy crazy low, however you tweak the numbers (unless you actually believe sound will go bust).
KTF,
thanks for reply, Obviously there`s a long way to go with all of that and let`s hope at least some of what you mention actually happens, I think, hope, some is very possible but we all know how quickly thing`s can change.
Is there a general rule of thumb measurement of nett profit x ? = what the market should be ? hope that makes sense !
Regards
D2k
Morning Dangler,
Market cap (number of shares * sp) – today around 16 million
Therefore 10 bagger gives 160 million market cap.
Phase 1 revenue from rns circa 10 million a year net to sound
Phase 2 revenue from rns circa 40 million a year net to sound
In my view a company with 50 million a year coming in alone should justify a market cap of more than 160 million.
All the permutations also work as far as I’m concerned.
Let’s say Only Phase1 happens, what market cap is justified by 10 million a year revenue? Significantly more than current market cap.
Obviously we need the Calvalley deal completed, which will then unlock the Phase2 bank funding.
Once these two happen we are free to go forward with FID which unlocks the Phase 2 revenue (once completed)
Also, once Calvalley deal is completed we have a partner paying for exploration which opens up a whole new (and bigger) valuation potential.
Get these things in place and the whole HUGE exploration potential becomes possible, funded by cash flows.
Ad the great thing is the jkey inflection points (Cavalley and Bank financing) will happen this quarter and perhaps very very soon.
Morning KTF,
Genuine question, can you explain your valuations more clearly ? how are you calculating returns against market Cap ?
Regards D2k.
"a 10 bagger from here only gives a market cap of £160 million, which with revenue for phase 1 of circa 10 million and phase 2 of circa 40 million net to sound seems rather low to me."
I DO NOT think spund will ever be worth £10 a share (or £1 a share) that would be £2 billiuon or £20 nillion Mar Cap.
I was simply making a point that the curent low sp does NOT have any bearing on the prospects of the company and that from a low sp there is more room to 'go places'
a 10 bagger from here only gives a market cap of £160 million, which with revenue for phase 1 of circa 10 million and phase 2 of circa 40 million net to sound seems rather low to me.
£10? I'm sure they'll be some crowing if it gets to 2p
Sscarf - it could hardly be going places (sp) if it was already £10 a share could it?
Love you too kylie 😊
... And a current share price of 0.84p. Going places? Doesn't appear to be despite the unfounded or speculative optimism of some. GLA.
KTF, do you not realise what a moron you make of yourself, pretty much everytime you post?
You find the posts of a person who has called this sp move and company right as 'irritating'? you're the one that posts like a child. i don't like what they post as it's not what i want to hear, so i'll think of them as irritating. What a spanner.
KTF, you have posted 3436 posts, all on a single company. Non of them are objective, all of them are unjustifiably bullish, and ALL of them have been proven to have been utter carp. Just look at the sp. Since you started posting the share price has lost over 99% of it's value and on Friday closed at the second lowest level EVER. Only beaten to that carpy accolade by a slightly lower close on 8th Sep 2023. Perhaps you should listen and learn rather than behave and post like a petulant moron with less than zero humility and sub-zero investment acccolade.
Sundance, I can't believe pescado is serious with his posts. Anyone with half a whit would realise the gibberish would have no positive effect, infact quite the opposite.
I find them as irritating as kylie’s.
They are either posted by a child for god knows what reason, or someone else trying to put people off reading the BB.
For what purpose I don’t know.
Btw, the one thing in your post I disagree with is “in this mess of a company” Sound is no longer a mess, but a company going places with great prospects.
Sundance4, you probably remember Bobby Charlton, he was SOUND.
He didn’t earn the money like we will now.
SOUND MONEY WITH SHARES FIRST ; BUY BUY BUY.
Now I have heard it all , ffs how old are you , does your mum know you post on a financial investment bulletin board.
How in gods little acre do you expect people who are so far underwater in this mess of a company? to really take your utter utter childish dribble seriously , gods nuts and trousers boy ffs grow up