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ST - thanks for a reasonable post. A welcome change to your tiresome quarrel with ST and stating that Sounds value is less then zero. I had a look again at SP angel’s 9p valuation. It is all about a judgment of how likely Ph2 is. The point of the Ph1 deal is that it makes a Ph2 deal more likely to happen. The 9p also excludes (rightly so at this stage) exploration upside.
Agreed, Gassy. It's all about Phase 2. Indeed, Graham's roadmap is the only show in town. It's just he hasn't been very good at sticking to schedule so far. With Phase 1 FID only projected for end of this year, I find it incredibly hard to imagine Phase 2 FID before 2023, especially with the hints that Graham has dropped and the record of progress so far. I think genuine value, should it eventually arrive, is several years away.
Jonnyfunk I'm not suggesting you will ever get anywhere near your 60p average back however it would be idiotic to sell now if there was a chance this could get back to double figures. Especially as Graham has managed to steady the ship.
Woundlick you asked for opinions so the big question is are you bailing out or are you staying to hopefully claw back some of your losses?
JONNY. Work will begin at the Anoual acreage before long, with a very real chance of hitting multi TCFs of gas. Graham recently said they wanted to start work there at the back end of this year but it had to be put back through covid. This will get your money back plus a lot more.
ST - I've considered selling at various times and cutting my losses, but as it stands I may as well hold for the time being. If the share price increased to 6p+ then I'd be very tempted to sell and get over 50% of my money back. Only need 11p to break even again - I'd be selling for sure at that point, unlikely as it is that we'll ever get there in my opinion.
Just giving some more thought to the pipeline - as we're talking about Morocco's energy independence and security, is there any chance the Moroccan government would be willing to fund (or at least provide a heafty contribution towards) the $180m cost?
Woundlick there is every possibility the morrocan govt might make an investment in the pipeline. There is also a possibility that one of the major producers might also be tempted if they hit a big gas field in the area. Like I stated earlier this pipeline ties into the pipeline that goes into the European grid and has passed all the planning and environmental permissions so it's just a funding issue now. I'm quite sure other producers could tee in along its 120 klm length and it is the only pipeline in the area that gives access to the lucrative European markets. Once the 120klm line is installed then it would make it easier to extend it if the demand justified it. There is also a future possibility that we may find more gas due to us having a large asset so there could be future upside there also. With your average so low I would be reasonably confident of fully recouping my losses and possibly making some profit but how long that would take is pure guesswork. What I do know is selling up now would be madness in my opinion.
Woundlick. You could be onto something with the Moroccan government showing interest, as Oil and Gas Investers Fund have their offices based in Morocco.
Would be most strange to have one arm of the Moroccan Government chasing us for a huge tax bill while another arm offers to fund a pipeline - it's unlikely in my opinion but I've been wrong about just about everything, so that could be a good omen!
Seek help
Thats to you sharetrader
Very mature utility. Everyone else is contributing to debate and you are just being childish.
STD123, the only thing you're contributing to the debate is shameless ramping. Along with your fellow travellers who announce "multibaggers coming" without offering the slightest bit of evidence or justification.
Regarding the Moroccan government investing in the pipeline, why would any government give away exploration permits for next to nothing and then end up funding the infrastructure themselves. The whole point is that the don't have to take those financial risks.
And as for your advice that "it would be idiotic to sell now if there was a chance this could get back to double figures" ... more complete nonsense. What would be idiotic is to leave your money where it is making nothing instead of seeking better opportunities. Your advice is based on pure FOMO. If one takes the view (as I do) that SOU is going nowhere for the next couple of years, even if it eventually comes good, parking your cash there is the *most* idiotic thing.
PS pipe down. I don't think anyone is going to take notice of a Muppet who has already sold out for 1.2 p and incurred a 92% £600,000 loss. At least myself and a few others still have a chance of making a profit which as we all know is just around the corner.
STD123, by bailing out five months ago I missed out on a quarter of a penny which would have only left me down "only" 90%. Woohoo! Yet YOU'RE the donkey who had a chance to get out at par, but waited for the share price to halve. Profits just around the corner? Is that as reliable as the doubling in three months that you predicted three months ago? LOL.
Can you take your personal bunfight elsewhere please.