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Tom Palmer has said Newmont intend to concentrate on mining in less risky jurisdictions. Although all the right noises have been made, Ecuador must still count as being risky. They are also committed to expanding their copper footprint. So:
1) Will they sell?
2) Will they hold as passive investors?
3) Will they actively support the company?
We've been told there are buyers out there for the old CGP stake, so one can assume these same buyers would be interested in Newcrest's. Will SC seek to find a friendly buyer for the holding? Is the market currently discounting us because it regards the Newmont's position as an over-hang? In other words, is it contributing to the uncertainty rather than as a catalyst?
To my way of thinking the future of the ownership of these shares is of great significance to us, although I'm not sure we'll be getting an answer any time soon.
Good morning addicknt.
I must disagree.
The whole reason we have been able to defend from any one investor or two acting in together in concert, is that we have a diverse book.
The direction of Solgold is firmly in the hands of the BOD.
Sorry Q, not sure I understand your point. What has the fabled 'diverse book' got to do with the future of Newmont's stake? The answer is 'nothing'. They'll make their own minds up about what they want to do with it.
What I am saying addicknt is it doesn't matter what they do with their stake.
The diverse book means Solgold are in charge of their own destiny.
Newmont cannot change anything.
Newmont can change something. If they decide to sell their solg shares, say on the open market, that would kill the solg SP. They have that power for change. Let us hope that they have a positive view of Ecuador.
That wasn't the point I was making. I was suggesting that it may have an effect on our future direction, which seems pretty obvious to me.
For example, a sale to BHP would signal BHP's intentions, likewise the Chinese. Short of buying the shares ourselves, there's nothing our management can do to determine what happens with the shares.
Q, one other point. You say we are in charge of our own destiny - we most certainly are not.
The only way we could fit that description is if we currently had several billions of dollars in our bank account and all of the required approvals. Sadly, we do not.
Addicknt, if you use your common sense then I think you'll soon get to a more plausible conclusion re Newmont. Firstly, there's quite a few folk out there all saying a sale within the next 6 months. And if there is not a sale ... then there is surely a fund raiser. Both of those events potentially give Newmont an exit or a larger entry. I don't think they'll be in any rush. They have significant interests still their gold prepay credit facility on Fruta del Norte of which I think Lundin has already paid a 3rd off. They have other interests in Ecuador and on the whole, I'd Say SOLG is minor compared to their other stuff.
I think they are more likely to sit on SOLG holding and await the Q1/Q2 24 before making a move. If they were offered 45p a share I think they'd sell out. They wouldn't be able to sell out 300m shares in the open market without it taking at least 8 months+. I think when Blackrock exited, they ditched a 5% interest and it took well over 6 months to get through open market and even then I think that was with help of Chinese taking 1%+ of that.
Newcrest will be like the rest of to some extent in that it may as well wait until Q1 24 and see what Bob / Maxit deliver on deals. Then again, it might just be a case of them taking a call and provisionally pledging their shares to BHP so their acquisitions team can plan in advance??
I should add, I am unsure of the dynamic between BHP and Newmont. Quite a few aussie firms don't like BHP very much so you never know... there might be an aussie ego thing to add to the mix. Newmont might well turn out to have sticky shares if it means BHP has to pay alot more. Remember Twiggy and the way he knocked BHP out of the Noront game and sent them packing.
Fort, why start your post with a veiled insult? It does you no favours.
My initial post was simply posing a few questions and was inviting people's opinions.
Probably because they are hacked off that they are continually wrong in their theories and thye doesn’t like anyone that poses a question that might have a negative connotation because they are over leveraged.
You are absolutely right though, solgs destiny is uncertain because as you say it isnt really in their control as they aren’t big enough or have enough cash to do as they wish.
Someone mentioned bhp made an offer many years ago for 70% of ensa, if Mather had not been so arrogant and took the offer I don’t think Solg would be struggling now, but Mather thought it was worth multiple of what bhp paid.
As I've been saying for the last two years, the most likely outcome here is the vultures fighting over the emaciated corpse of SOLG after time and day to day costs finally kill it stone dead.
You may well be right Jezzoo. They seem in no rush to produce any deal Solg clearly need to continue… hence the pivot from fast and smart monetisations to new PFS and mine plan adjustments
They are now left trying to show they have a credible route forward, as no near term monetisation deal is in play or being discussed… evidenced by Scott being able to purchase shares to signal his confidence
Orthern - that is wrong and BS.
DD has been going on for a long long time...
They can monetize this by putting an end date on the strategic review. SC knows this hence he bought some more shares before he is not able too anymore.
As a fellow poster said to me last night, it's odd that the directors were given the go-ahead to buy shares when we know various non-disclosure agreements are in place and people are accessing the data room.
It used to be the case that the Stock Exchange would, in very special circumstances, allow director purchases in a closed period, but it wasn't easy to get them to do so. I don't know if this dispensation option is still available.
Adikt. your 0659 post.
"Although all the right noises have been made, Ecuador must still count as being risky."
that's one of your better conclusions, no one would of thought of that.
must post, must post, must post.
I will be noticed
Wow could we be hitting the dizzying heights of 11p soon 🚀🚀🚀
Shussss novice... you'll have orphern doom reeper copper posting all day.
Hats off to the derampers and bashers... it's been a heavily weighted first half and I'd say they are leading 3-0 at the moment. Can Scott, Bob and Maxit deliver a Stevie Gerrard type second half... and secure the trophy for the bulls?
Or the Steve Gerrard that tripped over the ball and threw the title away to Chelsea?
Still one of my favourite moments ever in football
Hmmm you sound like you are from the blue half……