Rainbow Rare Earths Phalaborwa project shaping up to be one of the lowest cost producers globally. Watch the video here.
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So the complimentary IPA signed today but the 'definitive' IPA due to be signed in Ecuador.... but when??
from RNS "...in advance of the definitive Complementary IPA to be signed in Ecuador" END
I wonder if the finance package has to be revealed/announced before they 'sign' the final IPA in Ecuador?? If so, then looks like we might have a package lined up and that's going to seriously light a rocket under the shareprice especially when you consider that the Market was happy pricing SOLG at 40p not that long ago based on having a higher capex but no evidence of funding.
Were the other investments signed in Toronto pending definitive sign off's in Ecuador??
It's a bit like a LOI from Ecuador pre funding.
A deal with the IMF and today's BMO arrangement may point to a risk on investment move towards Ecuador. The mining capital tectonic plates are shifting towards Ecuador. Is this finally the time the mineral riches of Ecuador are exploited?
--
1 March 2024
(Bloomberg) -- Ecuador bonds jumped on Friday after President Daniel Noboa met with investors in New York and told them his government expects to reach a deal with the International Monetary Fund in about two months, according to a person who attended the meeting.
Notes gained across the curve, with those due in 2030 rising 2.7 cents on the dollar to around 63.7 cents, the highest level in more than a year, according to indicative pricing data collected by Bloomberg.
Noboa told money managers that talks with the Fund were ongoing, according to the person, who asked not to be identified describing the private meeting. The 36-year-old leader was making the rounds in New York after raising taxes at home and pledging to narrow the deficit in the 2024 budget.
Representatives for Noboa, the Finance Ministry and the IMF didn’t immediately reply to messages seeking comment about the remarks.
Noboa was meeting with local officials and investors to pitch economic reforms and discuss his efforts to fight drug gangs, according to a statement from his office. He planned to speak with Ecuadorian migrants before making stops in Toronto and Ottawa over the coming days.
The heir to a banana fortune, Noboa has tried to leverage his popularity since taking office three months ago to wield support to tackle dual security and fiscal crises.
His efforts have caught the attention of the market, with debt from the South American nation handing bondholders returns of 36.5%, according to a Bloomberg index. Still, the notes trade deep in distress, with investors pricing in an 80% chance of a default within five years. '
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Nice find
"Still, the notes trade deep in distress, with investors pricing in an 80% chance of a default within five years. '"
Now.... what a boon it would be for those bond holders and future Ecuador debt holders (chinese etc) if they could get a Tier1 mine financed. Bit like investing in your own security bond backed program lol!
Oh ... it's hotting up now. I'll add the IMF and bondholders to the list of folk desperate for Alpala to be developed asap.
Fort, that was exactly my reading of it this morning. The optics of signing an agreement worth $3.2bn with a company with around £$10m in the bank wouldn't be great. This is basically as you say, a statement of intent, but it's important because it shows Naboa is onside and willing to give us some rope.
It also signals to a risk averse prospective buyer that 1) mining in Ecuador is very much back and 2) Cascabel is THE project the government really wants to work because of its size. It was a big, public de-risking event on both of those levels.
How, if at all, we raise more cash here will be very telling.
funding is secured. the government does not agree to undertakings from ****co's (with $10m in bank) without guarantees or visibility of funding.
this phucker is about to rocket
Yes, quite plausible. I initially thought that it was something so big and historic for Ecuador, that they or Noboa wanted to do an official signing ceremony in Ecuador and maximise the press coverage as doubt many in Ecuador pay much attention to Toronto/PDAC etc.
So I think bit of both... perhaps some big names to be announced soon which will also add to Noboa's PR push. So much smarter to hold fire on the definitive agreement until more ducks in order before doing a proper Ecuador signing ceremony celebrating the greatest ever mining investment in the country's history. To do that properly... you have to announce the key funding partners as well.
When you look at what's happened at PDAC, then think about Barrick signing a deal on exploration land in Dec 2023 (literally weeks after Noboa got elected) you can see how the activity was building long before PDAC. That's very smart of Barrick. Then when you throw together the same dates eg SOLG also signed the exploitation agreement early Dec 2023... you begin to wonder whether they were linked in some way?? Perhaps Barrick wanted extra acreage/ops and mad e a few other agreements??
It looks like a number of mining firms and PE firms (inc Gina R) got stuck in the moment Noboa got elected. They acted fast. Now I wonder whether we are now seeing others start to feel left out and panic... hence making moves soon before they get left behind. Remember the mining cadestre is apparently closed lol!
I think people are missing general politics here. I've been reading lots of Ecuadorian newspapers today (basically all the national ones). They all mention the signing of deals, very few mention Solgold or Cascabel. It's a headline. I can't see any rational argument that this announcement proves funding is secured.
That aside it gives time. My big concern was that we would default on the IPA that is in play and lose Cascabel. That's been kicked into the long grass now.
Noboa is making good progress on the economic front, although still early days.
https://www.ecuadortimes.net/the-country-risk-falls-to-1321-points-what-does-it-mean-for-ecuador/
Further I don't see how Solgold could sign this agreement on the basis of definitive proof of funding without first getting approval from shareholders. Its not definitive proof without approval from shareholders and I don't see how they can get that level of funding without shareholder approval (I may be missing something there).
Again I think very positive news but let's not get carried away.
Pbow why would Caldwell sign a deal to give up cascabel if he doesn’t spend $3.2nd developing it if there was no chance it could be developed or sold?
Https://www.bnamericas.com/en/news/ecuador-signs-historic-agreements-for-more-than-us48-billion-within-the-framework-of-pdac-2024
"In collaboration with the banking giant BMO, a meeting was held with investment banks interested in Ecuador."
"Among these projects are: Cascabel, led by Solgold and signed by Scott Caldwell; "
Above article mentions Solgold and Cascabel directly.... More interesting is the "I'm collaboration with banking giant BMO" ... On balance I'm swaying to the view that investment is sorted also.
If so VERY interesting times ahead and this will relate very quickly.
1984investor solgold already signed a deal committing to spend an amount which it hasn't. Signing this amendment gives more time as I said. So it's positive.
The investment amount of $3.2bln is a curious one as you'd think it would be based on the lower capex $1.4bln as per recent PFS. Perhaps it includes the purchase price of Alpala as well lol! That's about 50p based on $3.2bln inc capex spend. Or... it could suggest that the investment protection is based on the larger planned development PFS which of course is only workable by a number of deep pocketed players.
Why $3.2bln protection? Why not $4bln? The message is clear... Alpala is worth at least $3.2bln as a minimum as why else would you protect that level of spend.
That's £2.5bln or 83p a share. Or if based on capex of $1.4 and $1.8bln purchase price, then it's 47p a share. That's just for Cascabel/Alpala.
Porvenir and regionals likely worth another 8p to 10p a share as they stand.
mmm.
Fort the recent Cascabel RNS specifically mentions $3.2bn in the second paragraph.
Not wishing to put a damper on the obvious excitement but wouldn't Ecuador have to open the Mining Cadastre before investment was secured and deals are signed off? I may be wrong but I'm not expecting major developments on this as soon as others are expecting it.
I would suggest the 3.2 billion refers to the CAPEX plus the OPEX for the term of the IPA.
The 1.55 is just the first lump to production but the whole first phase is 3.2 which is was we’re committing to
The reduced initial capex just opens up easier financing and more suitors. Ultimately one of the big faces will still take it though
I don't see how the mining Cadastre impacts us at this stage for cascabel.
My understanding is the Cadastre
Is for issuing new tenements.
Hence none have been issued since its been closed.
180 excited hysterical posts.
8, level headed posts seeing things as they are.
Hfh and one or two others on here deserve credit for there level headed approach to the news.
Although it's good news, it doesn't warrant the hysteria displayed yet again on here.
Despite the ridiculous claims of sp manipulation, the money markets, are not usually far out with there assessments.
The sp is still in the 7s.
If only hysteria and wishfull thinking move share prices. If only
Thanks for the clarification, apologies for misunderstanding it.
Is there a special course you go on to learn to spell that badly need a shyte?
PBOW...the article got it completely the wrong way round...
But its still good news because it clearly marks out Cascabel as by far the biggest new project in Ecuador...
"SolGold PLC - Ecuador-focused copper and gold exploration company - Signs a joint declaration in preparation of a complementary investment protection agreement with the government of Ecuador. SolGold says in addition to the USD311 million investment addressed by the current investment protection agreement, the complementary IPA there is a commitment to invest a total of USD3.2 billion over the subsequent years. Chief Executive Officer Scott Caldwell says: "The complementary investment protection agreement not only reinforces the protections for our key investment in Ecuador but also symbolizes a deepening of our relationship with the Ecuadorian State. President Noboa's attendance and insightful speech at the PDAC convention were warmly welcomed by the mining community and underscores the significant support of his administration for responsible mining in Ecuador."
I'm expecting two things...
1 A non dilutive funding that will remove all cash worries for at least 2 years...no equity issue and no sale of CGP's former 5%
2 A Conditional financing deal for Cascabel, from either Jiangxi or FNV/Osisko/Wheaton/Trafigura/Glencore etc financing the whole of Cascabel but with no firm commitment to proceed
The latter alone will trigger a bidding war because the majors who are interested do not want SOLG to go it alone with Cascabel which, with the gold price soaring has never looked so viable as it does now...