We would love to hear your thoughts about our site and services, please take our survey here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
Anyone know when the merger is expected to complete in full?
Thanks in advance
"The baseball bat in Bob Sangha’s Toronto office is a monument to his favourite pastime of “taking down” big mining companies in acquisition battles, and he’s itching to take a swing at BHP and Newcrest."
Remember Sangha was advisor to Wyloo when their 'knockout' bid took out BHP's interest wth BHP havging to sell their stake to Wyloo after a fruitless battle...
https://www.afr.com/companies/mining/how-bhp-newcrest-may-lose-their-copper-prize-to-a-scrappy-crew-of-minnows-20221114-p5bxxy
Some highlights:
1. "Sangha helped to arrange the Osisko royalty deal under Maxit’s new role as a financial adviser to SolGold." - This is the $50m ringfenced for Cascabel - orchestrated by the same person who is saying that the dream of building a block cave mine at Alpala is over.
2. "“No one would be happier than me if we end up with a great outcome for shareholders and BHP and Newcrest end up with zero stake in Cascabel,” said Sangha. “It’s all about taking these big companies down and embarrassing them.”" - This scenario (i.e. zero ownership of Cascabel by BHP or NCM) is only viable through a third party takeover.
3. "It will see more SolGold shares issued to Sangha (who owns almost 20 per cent of Cornerstone) and some of his friends, and it will dilute the power the BHP and Newcrest faction wield on the SolGold register." - In reference to the merger, this now means there are more shares in the hands of people who have publicly stated they want an exit from SOLG, i.e. a buyout or asset sale in which proceeds are returned to shareholders. A JV would not allow for this as any rise off the back of a JV would be heavily sold into and simply not a fair or viable outcome for all shareholders looking to cash in.
4. "The strategic review will be run by Sangha and Citi and will consider selling part or all of Cascabel, among other options. Sangha says the strategic review heralds the end of an era where SolGold was “pretending they were going to build a block cave” mine." - This one doesn't need any further explanation.
5. “We are going to do what we should have done six years ago; monetise this in whatever way maximises value for shareholders,” said Sangha. “We are bringing it to an end fast and smart, rather than slow and stupid.” - Again, pretty clear what this means.
Hi SharketMare or the Italian if you could post that article again, I would be grateful and like to reread it.
I do remember it, but not the detail.
Thank you in advance.
I expect the sp to retract below 15 pence within the next 4 weeks due to holders becoming inpatient and moving on.
Let's see.
Hi Quady, no I'm referring to the AFR article that The Italian referenced earlier, where Bob Sangha laid out in no uncertain terms that the plan was to monetize the asset, and that SOLG building a block cave mine at Cascabel was no longer an option.
Addicknt I agree that's why I published the latest info on the Solgold site on Cascabel and the Cornerstone update issued as an RNS on the 22nd Nov 2022.
I published them fully and you must certainly read them in their entirety.
It makes it very clear.
Sharemarket I believe you are referring to broker notes, I assume you are savvy enough to treat those with a pinch of salt.
Sharket
“ but in the not too distant future you are going to look rather Silly”
Think that ship sailed some time ago
Quady, we have been told that the plan is to monetize the asset and that dreams of us building a block cave at Alpala are over. You can ignore the reality of the situation all you want and cherry-pick slivers of information that suit your production narrative, but in the not too distant future you are going to look rather silly.
Q, as you know, that's not what the scope of the SR actually says. It includes 'advancing Cascabel' (which is ambiguous to say the least), but you mustn't ignore what else the RNS said.
Morning Addicknt I have been doing this long enough to know the difference.
We understand that Cascabel is not up for sale, but subject to a strategic review to advance Cascabel.
I have some thoughts on how we will proceed but all guess work.
However if I am right we will end up building Alpala for just over 1 billion and getting a quick open cut and then become self financing for very little dilution to advance to a full block cave operation.
Q, you are confusing 'tactics' with 'strategy'.
ColonelDrake try reading we are advancing Cascabel the RNS says we are. We never stopped.
Almostdone please don't read in isolation read the whole RNS, it's clear Solgold are going to advance Cascabel.
There were many reasons in the past why the 'we are going to production' line was believable and much needed. Firstly, if you want top dollar for your asset then you need to make sure the buyers know you have options and are not facing an inevitable scenario whereby selling it is the only way forwards. So that's put that to bed.
Secondly, debt and finance was cheap as chips a few years ago but is now very expensive. I genuinely believe SOLG could have gone to production via deals with Franco for $1bln, Mitsui, Chinese... a number or interested parties. Very doable but our stake would have hd to reduce whether that be in % ownership of ENSA or in profit terms.
Lastly, there are timeframes with all developments and Ecuador/Lasso have rules and regs for moving from exploratory to developent phases. Once that happens, the economic viability of the asset becomes something obviously spread over the mining life. If the clock is ticking, you really don't want to waste another 3 years+ of potential revenue while you seek partners on finance. So all in all... plans do change as and when material changes occur in the market and with your licence terms. But make no mistake about it... Tier 1 assets like ENSA are world class and much needed and NEVER remain gathering dust for very long at all.
So now we are into 'Strategic Review' period, we have a debt market that is ugly and unwilling to take risk and we have super majors all needing to replenish reserves ahead of big copper shortage predicted for 2026 through to 2030.
China will have no problem taking ENSA on. BHP and others have shareholders to please and they might prefer 'proven' political opportunities rather than a maiden venture in Ecuador. I guess we'll find out soon but 'fast and smart' is what we've been told and after just 4 months, we already have finance sorted for 12months+, AGM resolutions sorted, major shareholders structure rejigged pro SOLG and of course merger almost dusted.
It's clear for all to see that the new SOLG/CGP team are announcing very little until that merger is completed. I expected once all done, then we'll start to see what's what. Now that zero capital is required for payment in shares on the merger, we have a decent wedge which could see us doing some exploration again over the next 6 months+ while buyer or partner talks continue or finalise.
Brooke MacDonald from the rns.
The strategic review for the combined group aligns with our views on the best path forward.
Agreed Copperpot also the strategic review was about the best way to advance Cascabel.
I think now is a good idea to reread the Nov 22nd 2022 Cornerstone update that was introduced as an RNS for those who still think we are selling Cascabel.
It looks clearer now some time has passed.
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/SOLG/company-update-ox8rjcykahjiz2q.html
Solgold......"were" pretending to construct a mine (where they pretending)? Now after the SR is completed our CGP comrades may start to realise things in a different light! Why have a strategic review if your not open to mind change?
Think about it!
Orthern - the RNS at the time made it clear it was for the combined SOLG and CGP entity so I think you can assume the SR has run parallel to the merger.
Same announcement also said a transaction could not be assured. Gulp!
I think I can help Jezzoo.
In previous presentations the Production date is 2025 also the Mining minister is on record also stating 2025.
The completion date for a full block cave operation is 2029.
However the strategic review which is currently underway is to look at how best to advance Cascabel.
Let's await the strategic review.
You have some people on here saying the strategic review is a smokescreen and will never happen, but that's only because they don't listen to what the company says as it doesn't accord with their world view.
I did contact IR regarding when it actually started.... I was ignored..
nope
Has anyone seen anywhere, where it states the SR has actually started? or when it started?
>Their is no plan to sell Cascabel.<
Can you point us to where the planned date to put it into production instead is situated on the website ?
Or the latest drilling programme to further prove up the concession ?
Judging by the SP, nothing is happening in either direction.