Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
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Good grief this is depressing to read.
We will get over one pound a share, this is why we get no bids yet.
We will not be based on NAV as Colonel Drake says.
It will be on a percentage of NPV, when we are further along the production route.
Maybe I was being overly hopeful on the 50 & 60p’s Orthern
My honest guess is 33p-49p as this would represent a double from the recent placing price or a treble at top end
I reckon the bigger holders would agree to 40p-49p as well - to bring this sorry story to an end
A nice return for anyone buying or getting involved now
But a bit of a disaster really for the majority of LTH’s who have been on a multi year journey here, when considering the risk profile
3p/4p riders to 40p with an exit at that point and no further purchases during the journey played a blinder - sadly I doubt there are too many of those …..but if your reading and are one of these - I tip my hat to you
Potentially DBW - and it’s possible Maxit have picked up a few cheaper shares through associates or friends etc (not sure if it’s allowed or not - but back in the real world) & maybe even had a few shorts in play - which would be cancelled out on the issuance of SOLG shares - not closed prior to the event.
But my honest hunch is they were not expecting the SP to retrace quite as much as it has. I’d imagine they expected the drop to 16.6p following placing - then thought the anticipation of corporate action / build to merger etc would cause a slow drift upwards in the SP
I think the drop has caught them on the hop - plenty of emails etc will have hit Fawzi’s desk over the last few weeks - Nicks phone will have been beeping with what’s-app messages and Bob & Cauldwell will have also had there ears roasted somewhat.
I think they all expected the merger to have happened by now and their ‘after merger’ PR offensive would have already kicked off in an ideal world.
Being down at 14p doesn’t really help anyone right now - except suitors
My gripe has always been when delays happen is the time you need to get on the front foot and earn your crust - best laid plans can go adrift in business but you’ve got to react ….switching off and saying we will communicate after merger is a lazy/worried/unsure approach
It’ll be worse if no additional news is released alongside the merger as this will have indicated that there was no reason to delay/switch off comms
But hey we are where we are
Roll on our exit
Yes agree there DBW ,revised my share price now aswell hoping for 50p+ now on sale big drop but think the asset strip will see it sold off relatively low now imho
There’s even a small cynical part of me that wonders whether Maxit etc may not have found a way to benefit from the languishing share price over the last couple of months.
My guess is that things could kick off very shortly and we’ll all have a better idea of where we stand.
Nice to see so many varying opinions offered up with none of the usual insults thrown in. ….. hmmmm wonder why
Otherness, the flaw in your argument about Maxit is that they are significant shareholders, or rather Sangha is, and he will care very much indeed about an exit value. His ambitions will be the same as ours and he will want the best price possible.
More than that but maybe not what we once hoped for
I tend to agree with you there,the asset value of both companies got to be worth at least 30p would you not think ?
Orthern …. Who knows what the eventual price will be ….. merger completion is a watershed moment and the company has had a complete reset….let’s see what they have to say ….. any “strategic review “
Will have been thrashed out prior to merger being agreed and I can almost guarantee Nick would have made clear what he considered acceptable
Orthern, agree with all of that. To see a truly decent return here we need multiple interested parties and a bidding war. I think it's much more likely we sell Cascabel to Jiangxi.
I Can agree with almost all of that too… except talk of 50-60p..
I had hoped over the last couple of years that any sale of Ensa or Solg as a going concern would achieve north of 50p…. We were never getting anywhere near or over £1…. That was just people dreaming after years of Solgs hyperbole chuff…
But we are where we are now…given we canned the Porvenir PEA just as it was due to be released and had high hopes for… given we shelved the PFS addendum, probably because the financials were not what we hoped for, timed with global economic factors making financing costs more expensive, and given we had to raise recently at such low prices, meaning there will be circa 3 billion shares in existence now.. compared to the 1.7 when BHP arrived… I could go on… given BHP opted to go for Oz… there are many factors pointing to a rather disappointing end to the Solg Cascabel story… but for me the refusal to release our studies recently is a big blow.. My concern is our asset, just isn’t the golden egg for everyone to chase that we all hoped it was.. Osisko and Franco know someone will eventually develop it… but they don’t care how low it is sold for, or how poor any final deal is for Solgs shareholders.. they will make their money.
I do believe Maxit etc don’t give a stuff how low our share price is right now… as any deal struck in the high 20s can be sold as a success…. doubling of the share price at the time… early 30s.. even better achievement. Long termers will be disappointed but the deal makers will spin it as a great achievement given global factors.. and they will get their fees…
Obviously we all had dreams when we repeatedly hit 40p and above… we swallowed all our boards guff because we dared to dream..
I sold a large chunk of my holding on the day the PFS was released, as it came with no plan or finance in place… of course I should have listened to my brain rather than my dreams and exited fully there.. I never for a minute thought we would be sat at 14p post PFS and announcing intentions to monetise.. all be it far too late in the day.
Such a shame.. we really are left just hoping Bob can pull off a deal, to at least exit at a just respectable price, having held for so long…. The lost opportunity cost of sticking here is difficult.
DG …. Pretty much agree with All of that ….. apparently Big PR push to follow merger , hopefully get this moving north fast
I agree DBW - Jiangxi were given the 16p shares as we needed the cash - backed into a corner of our own making. Cuzzubo should have placed around April May of last year but was busy with his own plans to drive us into the dirt. We also needed to dilute BHP / Newcrest so it had to be done.
Jiangxi won’t in my opinion want to stop at 6% but they are not just gonna pay a huge premium unless they have too - the Chinese have deep pockets but are no mugs. Do BHP still have desires on SOLG well that’s a debate in itself - personally I’m not convinced, they may get involved if it’s looking silly cheap but doubt they really have the desire to pay the big bucks - do they want to enrich Nick and Bob who told them to F… O… I doubt it
I do think there will be others who are sniffing around especially now we are all talking 40,50,60p (or less) - but getting the first bid is all important.
I was hopeful that Jiangxi were gonna move as soon as merger completed - but they will be watching the price drop day after day - so why move now when it’ll be cheaper tomorrow …..’if’ there are no other bidders
SOLG need to reverse the direction of travel and fast - back to my point about building excitement / momentum as right now they are looking lame and without real strategic direction
I don’t think jiangxi will get another “sweetener “ like the 16p placing…. That was a carrot to give them a foothold whilst providing us with much needed funding and reducing BHP’s:NCM’s influence at the same time.
The fact remains the Chinese are not in this for 6% so will BHP et Al sell to them without a fight ?
Personally DinnerMoney I don’t see the need to place the CGP shares now - totally agree we’d only get 14p ish if we were lucky and to suffer additional dilution would just be unwarranted - we don’t need the money
Maybe right at the start of the merger a placing of these shares may have been a worthy consideration but as soon as Jiangxi we’re brought in in the cheap I think that negated the need for a further placement
Return them to treasury and offset the ones placed to Jiangxi - every penny counts now when it comes to the final take out value
If we are lucky enough to get a bidding war how long could it take - six mths ? Would that be enough time to even bother on a new drilling campaign to add extra value - I’m really not so sure. It could serve as an impetus for any bidder to get a move on maybe but to me my initial thoughts are a new drill campaign is another can kicking exercise and do they really have any road left for that ?
DM …. I doubt they’d place now either and if they did it’d need to be at a premium this time …. Just conjecture on my part
“we are somewhat fortunate that Nick & the new CGP team have enough skin in the game to align on the desire for a good exit”
That’s exactly right and absolutely vital
They need to tread very carefully indeed now
No more wishy washy presentations
The trust has gone - blown away and from that position it’s very hard to regain it
CGP holders will soon have their SOLG stock and without a positive reason to hold they may well dump as soon as they have the ability to do so in a liquid market - remember many of those investors trust SOLG even less than we do !
Their credibility is around the zero mark - we are somewhat fortunate that Nick & the new CGP team have enough skin in the game to align on the desire for a good exit - although good for me has diminished a lot over the years and even more so over the last few mths
Merger was announced in Oct - so was probably agreed in Aug / Sept ….surely that’s enough time to merge two rather small companies. We are not talking multi billion pound mega giants here
It’s action needed now - I’m done with their empty words
DBW typical solgold,never straightforward,can't wait to get this sold off asap imho
DG …. The impression I get is that they know every move has to be carefully planned and well executed from here on in, step by step.
The merger delay could be anything from simple red tape to wanting to place the CGP shares prior.
Once it’s complete things could happen fairly quickly but I’d rather they sacrifice a little haste to ensure the right conclusion.
We may well actually get some planned drilling but this will only be to keep the wheels turning and potentially add value whilst the inevitable takeover plays out IMO
That’s my sentiment also…. We don’t need more rehashed pr drivel…more talk of first mover advantage… we are far beyond that now.. the market is totally ignoring it, and rightly so.. we dont need a corporate presentation painting a rosey picture.. we need a firm, clear explanation of the SR results… We need crystal clear next steps to achieve monetisation… no obfuscation just clarity.
But we won’t get that.
Good to know DBW - however the problem is now that very few Investors believe a word that is written into presentations. Unfortunately SOLG have fed us so much information over the years which hasn’t come to pass that anything they put out now will be dismissed.
Remember all the Gantt charts with timelines we have been given - or Cuzzubo’s presentation which was given after we all dialled in only for him to have been sacked a week or so after - RNS’s that are never followed up (JV search for tennaments springs to mind) - pretty much anything the company puts out now will be instantly dismissed out of hand as more misdirection and dare I say it bull s….
It’s only actions the company make that are a guide to really what’s going on and on the surface right now these actions are few and far between
The market wants to know the merger is complete but more importantly what comes next - they have had long enough on the SR - what’s the outcome ?
I personally don’t want another slide deck and certainly not a ‘monster in the making’ pic of old T-Rex
If the company doesn’t come out and clearly detail that they are selling and are in advanced discussion (ideally with multiple parties) then the market will puke
Personally I’d like to hear from Caldwell or have another swinging bat media piece from Sangha as I want to know if that bat has connected yet or has it been popped back on it’s rack
We really are at the crunch stage now and the company needs to get some trust and faith even excitement back - no slide deck is gonna provide that
Fingers crossed it won’t be needed
The French version is imminent.
Until October 22 we were getting an updated company presentation almost once a month then it all stopped. I have been assured there will be a new presentation following hot on the heels of the merger completion…… but when will that be?
Hopefully not much longer now
CD , yes but you have all your cards nailed to a takeover bid. Can you spot the flaw in your thinking?