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addicknt,
Not sure how you can make the Chinese think they are not the only show in town? Let's face it... no one can take them on and win unless it involves a silly bid which they think over values the opportunity. Not sure any bid under 400p would over value Alpala on a 50 year outlook and copper at 4 x today's price levels but that's all pie I the sky and who knows we might be flying around in helium powered personal jet packs or flying cars in 20 years with copper looking like a metal best suited to restoring electric vintage cars!
We live in the here and now and the good news (banking crisis aside) is that numbers should improve as we lower inflation and see end of interest rate rises. All interested parties will be fully aware that the window of opportunity closes this year. Next year, interest rates are coming down, debt cheaper, growth returns, inflation back to 3% levels asset prices start to climb.
Not many Tier 1 mines out there with the classy metal mix that Alpala has in place.
Not much to see here today by looks of it, so have a good day all.
Fort, I agree with all of that and also that the Chinese are the front-runners - despite the fact I loathe their malign influence on the world. However, if I were an advisor I would most certainly seek to avoid giving them the impression they're the only show in town, regardless of my previous relationships with them.
addicknt, I thought is was public knowledge that Ecuador are in talks with the chinese over finalising an historic and first ever free trade deal like those already in other South American countries??
I agree that land purchases and other red tape stuff is likely required before anyone taking over the keys etc but I think you need to step it up a level to the 'top' and assume that any chinese talks with Ecuador would involve a $6bln (full cost) mine investment. If the Chinese arena the mix, then it not only involves building the mine but all the infrastructure like pipelines, hydro, roads, tailings and so on. Just what the Chinese are good at.
So if a Chinese Ecuador trade deal gets signed in a months time or two, then perhaps the dominos begin to fall after that key event? Maxit and Bob have such a long and proven relationship with the Chinese it's hard to think that they are not in prime position right now especially after that signal to market via the $36m placing.
This is going to be fun. Twiggy v BHP fight 2. Twiggy currently the undisputed champion having Ko'd BHP in the 4th round in last bout.
Copper and Nickel soon to be in very high demand. Only problem for this dinosaur like market is that for decades the hedge funds have used Dr Copper as a hedge for their bets. Using it as a barometer of weather weights on equities are bullish or bearish. Problem is... Copper is now a high demand metal and not appropriate anymore for that kind of hedge. But the hedge funds are slow and reluctant to change their ways after decades and decades of playing the same game. That's what is suppressing copper right now... some old school hedge system tool. Bonkers and yet again just another example of a market that is incapable of seeing the future and pricing that in.
let's assume Maxit/Citi have received a number of informal approaches from companies wishing to do an 'off-market' deal i.e 'give us exclusivity and we're here to do a deal.'
Quite obviously this would not be the most effective way to maximise value, so the response has been 'thank you for your interest, but we're currently examining a number of options and if we conclude a sale is the best route forward we'll be in touch'. As a negotiating tactic this makes complete sense. We know we're going to sell, but play hard to get.
Up until fairly recently BHP held all the cards, but this has now changed and we are in the position to be able to do what many of us have hoped for, which is to sell the company/Cascabel via an auction process once the SR has concluded.
Now the unpopular comment: if I were a buyer I'd want to see the various licences in place before offering. Indeed, if I were selling I'd recognise that this is as an essential value-enhancing step and would hold back until I've got them. As we know, we're in detailed conversations with the authorities, who've been making all the right noises, but we do need the signature on the dotted line.
SM, no, that's not how these things work and my take on Irwin's comment is that he was stating the obvious i.e lots of DD WILL be required once we enter formal discussions.
Fort, I agree with your last paragraph but don't believe we are near that stage yet. We've been given the timetable for the SR and whilst it would be great to think we're closer to the completion of the process than we've been told, on this occasion I'm inclined to believe they were not trying to fudge matters - but who really knows?
The one caveat to my thinking is the question of why the company rushed out the statement about his options without first having worked out the detail and why did they suddenly decide to appoint him full-time? I suggested yesterday that a cynical view could be that his appointment was solely so he could receive options - I hope I'm wrong, but wouldn't be surprised if I'm not.
https://www.kitco.com/news/2023-03-17/Top-10-largest-copper-mining-companies-in-2022-report.html
Or Jiangxi, Fortescue, Barrick, etc etc
They've already done all that Colonel...the next relevant RNS will be to announce an approach or a bid...
After all Bob has been working on that for 6 months or so...
Agree with all of that SM
And by the way, when I was a GFD the done thing was to price the exercise price above the current market price...
Also , as has been already mentioned , none of those guys need top dollar to be very very very very rich indeed. Its one;y us small timers that need top dollar.@20:20. I don't get that , they can take the options before the firing.
add , spot on , that's been my thoughts all day. There's nothing doing behind the scenes , hence the ugly SP. Hand it to Quady , so far absolutely spot on also.
I am expecting us to build a couple of schools , and at least one university.
I think the general rule is that there has to be at least 2 or 3 weeks between issuing themselves shares and then releasing price sensitive news. It's that simple. Over the years, I've seen plenty of companies suddenly do equity raises that they also partake in only then to release mega drill results a few weeks later.
I think you'll find SOLG have already said very clearly what the SR will explore and giving you and the entire market the possible outcomes. We haven't had the answer yet, but it's not like they haven't told you so it's not exactly insider trading is it? If a director buys now... and in a few weeks great news appears, then you've had ample signal by the director to follow their lead. That's why sometimes director buys are a clear sign that better news might follow. Not always the case. I've also seen plenty of directors buying stock In open market only to see the share price halve months later.
If the next RNS appears and it says... SR concluded, recommendation is to seek a buyer for ENSA. BoD's announce that they have appointed Maxit / Citi to do the sale process which may or may not result in a sale etc etc.
I think most can read between the lines!
Sale typo apols
Addicknt, is it possible that SOLG have instructed Maxit to attempt to sell the business, and that whilst that process is underway there is a Chinese Wall in place to stop Solg from having to announce to the market that we are in discussions, and to allow the directors - who might be unofficially "aware" of what is going on - to purchase stock and pretend like it's BAU?
Irwin mentioned lots of DD being required which to me implied we were in discussions with at least one potential buyer.
I am now of the view that if we do see the outcome of the strategic review published, it will be because Bob Sangha hasn't managed to sell the company to anyone.
Trafigura,saying copper price going to hit record highs within a year bodes well for solg sake imho
I know Scott's option package seems excessive as he's effectively just been handed 1% of our company on a plate, but I know from personal experience commercials are a dirty business and everyone is out for themselves.... especially someone in the twilight of his career who wants one last pay day. However, there's no doubt his interests are now aligned with my own and its in his best interests to get top $ for us all.
One things for sure though, they have to now get this done before the next AGM or there will be blood on the streets.
Circa 275 days till the next AGM, crack on fellas, you've just set yourselves a deadline. C
Options cannot be granted to directors if they are in possession of inside information. In other words we are not currently in discussions.
If Scott knows a bid is coming and has in anyway influenced the board to issue benefits to him based on the bid it's insider trading.
But the Board has to approve it...
Red, appreciate the thinking out of the box but that's too much. The incentive for a 65 years old employee of an AIM like share is quite clear: me , me then ...me.
How about I am not surprised in the slightest that the price keeps dropping! I’m pretty sure that when Darryl car joined it was pretty much verbatim the same paragraph and look what happened there !!! You couldn’t make it up this is turning into a s-h-I-t show
Scott knows theres a bid coming...
He only has 1 million shares...
He would struggle to but more, because the market is still relatively thin and others are buying...
He doesn't have enough cash and the 'close period's is approaching on 13 April.
Bob has shares and can buy more...
Nick has shares and can buy more (though not in his own name)
Scott is 65 and hes doing the dirty work and is the odd man out, so Bob, Nick and Liam agree he gets the options....
Maybe because he knows too much...?