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fomad, some time ago, when we were taking pfs2 as the base case, i did a back of the *** packet calculation of what a jv looked like. as far as i could discern it didn't look attractive.
i'm not going to repeat the exercise as there are so many assumptions involved as to render it a pointless exercise, however, regardless of which sector a company operates in, i've rarely seen a jv ending well for the junior party in the relationship. bear in mind what the ex-ceo of glencore said last year; it's the business plan of the majors to exploit the juniors.
As always addicknt I can have a sensible conversation with you on here.
Part of me agrees with you on parties in the data room wanting clarification before bidding.
But then they would have had to be part of the discussion with the government.
That to me would imply only one party interested.
Next is would that be enough for the recent government announcement.
I personally think not.
I still believe Solgold are taking the project forward and we are near to getting the strategic review completed.
And I think yesterday's higher Offbook interest was largely down to Fund managers being back at work after PDAC...
But I also think a lot will be watchers for the time being, waiting for us to secure our cash position and then whoooshhh...
SOLG has been claiming Cascabel is a Tier 1 well back into the Nick days...nothing new...
But it fits BMO Caapitals definition...
Q, I agree, but the investment obligation is separate from any other discussions. Think of it as a liability on the balance sheet and it in no way implies anything about the ownership of the company.
Personally, I see all of the recent announcements as being part of Caldwell's determination to present the company as a turnkey project to interested parties (I know you have a different interpretation of the word 'turnkey', but we'll have to agree to disagree on that one). I also believe that the reason for this is that the interested parties in the data room have told us what they want to see delivered before they bid, and this is the work Caldwell's busy undertaking.
The past few weeks have seen a sea change in many respects - the governmental enthusiasm and commitment being critical - and we've also seen the result of many months of work by our team beginning to be revealed. It's all good stuff and confidence has obviously shifted in our direction.
Fomad - a JV with Jiangxi is a fantastic outcome. Will BHP types be happy? No. BHP types can make a suitable offer or bugger off
Quelle surprise ! Someone seems in a rush to push all the formalities out before the main course 🥘
9p in sights today then...
ONWARDS & UPWARDS!!!
Thanks, I understand the buyout potential but I've always been less sure on what a joint venture means for the value. I understand it's probably better for value in the long term (5-10 years), but I just want to manage my expectations if a JV is announced with a big name, what do my exit options look like. If the share price peaks at say 30-35p, I could have got that price over 5 years ago so wouldn't be an amazing outcome for me. I would be tempted to wait until the mine is built and producing to get full share value.
I prefer a quick buyout, but the way Solg have positioned themselves over the years, I have to consider the option of them self-financing and doing this the hard way. The middle ground to that extreme option is the JV of course.
I believe the 'tier 1' reference is advertising (For Sale sign has been hoisted) to prospective buyers. Almost the starting point for negotiations to buy Cascabel
Non dilutive funding next...
And I repeat...no Director/Insider buys means something is brewing...
They do seem in a rush all of a sudden don't they?
They had until April 1st to release the technical report, so releasing it now suggest in my opinion that they needed to get it out there before issung some other news... and we all know what that might be about.
Official signing of investment protection must be up next in Ecuador but not sure that can happen without evidence of the funding backers or partner deals. One thing is sure... Mr Noboa will be going for max publicity so I would expect a well documented ceremony as $3.2bln is Ecuador's most historic investment commitment to date and spells the beginning of major mining projects in the region. It will have super majors around world looking as well as neighbours like Chile, Colombia, Brazil etc. They'll soon have a new metal exporting powerhouse to contend with.
Https://www.mining.com/ecuadorian-government-releases-controversial-prior-consultation-manual/
Good morning addicknt.
Understand, however what we can say is no bid is on the table at the moment and not only was the undertaking taken, it was accepted.
Hence our current position.
Fomad - I believe a successful bid for Solg (should it take place) will be in excess of the NPV figure of 3,2B. So 100p +
Morning Q, yes, the corporate entity has committed to spending 3.2bn, but the question is, who will own that entity?
If the business is sold, the commitment simply passes to the buyer. I take it you can see the difference?
So the share price increased 30% during the week prior to the effective date of the technical report, being 31 December 23.
Coincidence? Insider buying?
Good morning Fomad.
I have no idea, it depends how it is done.
Hence more info to become available.
I do believe that the information we get in the short term, will guide us in how Cascabel is constructed.
As I should imagine finance will be staged and we are going to have to do more than outline the various stages of construction.
Unfortunately this is what is going to take time, hence we still have some way to go.
Fantastic. We all love the term 'Tier 1' as this commands a far higher premium and lower cost of funding as risk is lower
"On this basis, reference to the Cascabel Project as "World Class" (or "Tier 1") is considered to be appropriate."
Quady, in this scenario where Solg source the funding themselves, including a JV, what multiples of the share price do you anticipate?
Probably all still here like my good self! I'm still fully loaded and happy sitting back watching the show unfold. I'm happy with what I see, I'm sure the other guys are too!
Good morning Eish.
You are missing the point.
Solgold are committed to spending 3.2 billion dollars.
This is not speculation, it was announced by the government.
So it's going to happen, we just don't have the details.
It fits in with the two finance guys.
We just hired.
No one is going to bid for us, because that certainly would have equated to a RNS.
That is market sensitive information in a big way.
Also if someone was going to bid for us, we wouldn't have hired the two finance guys.
The money is in the process of being arranged.
Certain undertakings have been exchanged between Solgold and the government otherwise no announcement would have been made.
We just await the form in which this will take.
Please feel free to speculate how this may take place.
But the only thing we can be sure of is it's going to happen.
Hence the announcement.
And who was first, Copperpot, he, he!!!?
I wonder what has happened to Broke Novice.Com and some of those other lovely posters? The lady with the Sprinkels and the one that use to go fishing every now and again!!!!/
Https://ceo.ca/content/sedar/SOLG-2024-03-11-technical-report-ni-43-101-english-a58f.pdf
Errrrmm.......2nd post actually!
:-)