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Speculation is all we can do right now I guess..
Well the Chinese are due to complete their DD by thursday.. so that’s our next probable RNS, unless someone makes a move to prevent them getting a seat at the table..
I admit , I don’t understand how we were able to print such a large number of shares for Jianxi, due to previous AGM resolutions without BHP NCM approvals.
Orthern - sorry wasn't hugely clear with my last post.
I don't think the Canadian regulator is insisting the shares be cancelled and SolGold could sell them post completion. I'm guessing it's just the whole premise of CGP selling the stock up front and loaning the proceeds to SOLG as prescribed in Darryl's presentation.
That was probably questionable given the regulator's much tighter control on companies in general.
It remains to be seen what SOLG do and I take your point. I've nothing firm to back up my suspicions and have to admit I'm speculating. But it feels right.
Thanks for the reply Bozi.
Your views on a JV are the same as mine.
Please read rampy's comments during a drop in share price. They are identical to those he writes during a rise like the one we're experiencing now.
If you go outside and shout 'it is raining!' constantly, you'll be correct some times and wrong others. That's essentially his tactic.
If you're doing well trading here, well done. But you can't honestly attribute that to rampy red: that's surely disingenuous? :)
Five days to further dilution of BHP's and Newcrest's holdings.
Huge far east company coming in on the scene.
Share price on the move upwards again.
AGM round the corner.
Should be an interesting couple of weeks ahead - sorry for stating the obvious :-)
Now that you've finally come off your high horse about going to production (after 9+ yrs) Quades, I am now firmly in agreement with you about a JV.
Solg/CGP (in future I will call this entity ENSA), must now be gearing up for a JV with a major. Your post reinforces all the reasons for this. You don't agree offtakes and NSR's if you wish to sell!!!
Yes - it will result in ENSA being by far the most junior (25 - 40% ownership) but ENSA needs the skill/knowledge/money that a Major brings. The JV will also minimise dilution, because believe me - if ENSA wants to take this to production alone, the existing share issue will atleast double!
The strategic review will pave the way for a JV.
Z
Bozi,
Let’s assume the Canadian regulator is demanding the merger be completed in the way you suggest, and the cgp shares are cancelled. Surely Solg can just reprint those shares once the merger is complete and sell to whomever they originally intended… one would have to assume, they did originally have plans to use them in some way, as they were so specifically referred to as being loaned early in the proposal of the merger.
If they do sell them, I’d prefer they went to the Chinese… bringing in a 4th major would sound great, but could lead to a standoff between them all, that could last far longer than my waning patience..
To be fair StackHigh, RedKNight has been saying about increased volumes since 15/16p and now about 20% up so call it ramping if you want, consider he may have helped some buy at a decent price to either trade/ invest or whatever.
If you don't like it, filter him, at least he is providing quantitively data vs subjectively talking about someone.
I've made tidy profit trading in a short period and find his posts useful so please don't try and shame him to stop.
I think that's exactly what it is Add.
We all know what happened in the summer just gone because of all the 'debate' it prompted and I think you're exactly right. The Osisko money is to keep the Cascabel train moving forwards, or at least give the impression, whilst the strategic review plays out to it's conclusion.
Offered at 19.88 and I'm firmly bid for 600k at 19.72...
Break 20p and the next target is 23/24...
Who says theres not a bid coming...looking at the constant higher volumes and the SP march upwards from 16.32 on 25 November, something must be happening in the background...
Is rampy now just recycling his own ramps?!
Lots of people disagree on this board, and that's healthy, but this chap.... Wow
Bozi, a far more eloquent response than mine and you're spot-on.
Thinking about it, perhaps the Osisko money is being used to allow us to keep people on at Cascabel, thus avoiding the need for redundancies and the resultant unpopularity.
It won't Jezzoo.
SolGold have shown their capital management is lax and they shouldn't be trusted with a cash lump sum after farming out Cascabel.
It's the messiest solution and gives nobody a clean break. We'd be the minority partner and we'd be so heavy manipulated by the operating partner that it would be a hellish investment to hold.
Our capital requirements would be on their timeliness for example and as a junior generating no revenue but with a good sized regional portfolio to tend to, this spells disaster.
In case you missed my footnote at 10.45 yesterday...
"Finally, someone who I rare as an expert on Solgold is buying...right now.."
Some chunky OffBook deals going through this morning at the price...
I wonder if its my man buying...
Quady
We've taken $50m from Osisko because we couldn't get the cash anywhere else. An equity raised being pushed by BHP/NCM was presumably rejected by Mather and his cohort and that left us in stalemate, so in rode Bob Sangha and Maxit Capital and a deal was done with Maxit likely the key pawn.
With regards the money from the CGP stock, I don't think we know what is happening with that just yet. We've taken a similar amount from Jiangxi in the last week but no announcements have been made regarding regional drilling strategy so I'd express caution about suggesting a regional programme. I personally believe it more likely that CGP shareholders will be paid 20% of the merger consideration in cash once ratified and the CGP shares will be cancelled rather than sold, and I expect the Canadian regulator has insisted it be done this way. One of us will be right and one will be wrong.
The strategic review is not looking for cost savings at Alpala. That is what the PFS upgrade was doing and it has been shelved by our new interim CEO, no doubt after millions of dollars has been spent on it in the last 6-9 months.
I'm going to stop short of being rude because I think you get enough of that but there's an element of you seeing what you want to see too.
At the end of the day, Bob Sangha and Maxit are leading the strategic review. Bob Sangha is the driver behind Cornerstone. Bob and Cornerstone wants out and will likely stop at nothing until they get their exit.
That Quady does not lend itself to a JV. I'm sorry. It just doesn't.
You tell me why SolGold would dilute itself to acquire the remaining stake in Cascabel only to farm most of it back out and keep everyone locked in for another 5-10years? It makes no sense.
The correct strategy here is to spin off the regionals in a vehicle that's ready to list from the getgo and demerger FR SolGold. Sell SolGold to the highest bidder and then leave CGP, Bob, Warren Irwin, Redknight and anyone else who doesn't want to play the spin off Co to sell their distributed shares as they please.
It means me, you and anyone who wants to play the regional portfolio can do so and we all get a payoff for the years of holding SolGold. Win win win win win.
But this story of pushing Cascabel on is done. Stick a fork in it. That goose is cooked.
But it needs the right voting at this year's AGM to get over the final hurdle. Fall here and we might as well all jump into the fire and cook ourselves with it. No thanks.
Q, the royalty money is being used to address the issues you describe and I imagine the board believes they are value-adding, thus making the asset more desirable for a bidder.
The 36m is to advance porv and may suggest we really are looking at the rinse and repeat process. Of course, it's also being used to keep the lights on.
As DBW suggests, there have been many indications of what the plan is and, on balance, I believe he's right.
And no...I have nothing againt GGP investors, just posting a cautionary note re Solgold...
If you want to consider the risks of a J/V and the possible SP effects, just look at GGP, NCM and Havieron...
November 2020:
"Newcrest and Greatland sign new landmark agreements to facilitate the acceleration of early works and expanded exploration activities at Havieron"
SP rises from 21p and tops out at 37.35
SP drifts all the way down to 15.6 in October 2021
7 October 2021 PFS Results and SP spikes to 15.6
Recommences its drift down to 9.3 in July 2022
19 August 2022:
"Further to Greatland's announcement of 21 July 2022, Greatland is pleased to advise that Newcrest has elected not to exercise the option under the Havieron JV agreement to acquire an additional 5% interest in the JV from Greatland"
SP now stands at 7.5p...80% below its peak...and investors are still waiting for the crock of gold...
Be careful what you wish for...
Q try not to sound so condescending
It’s many things that tend me towards that point of view.
The fact that they have always stated production was the aim ( not that most believed it) and are now having a strategic review .
The fact that we are merging with a company whose stated preference has always been to sell Cascabel.
The fact that we are reducing staff numbers and not replacing key employees.
To name but a few …. Hey I could be wrong but that’s my take on things
Jezzoo do the math.
Work out our NPV on Alpala alone.
Look at the cost to bring to partial production, so we generate funds to complete a full block cave production mine, when the cost of extraction is even lower.
Look how much this can be funded through offtake, loans and a JV agreement.
We would have minimal dilution.
DBW what signs tell you its a takeover, are you on about Twitter.
Really is that it?
How will a JV work for SOLG ?
Surely we will be very much the poor relation in a JV, we can't afford to be the majority share holder, and any partner wouldn't entertain being a minority. We would have to stick to the timelines decided by the major holder.
Our priority would be their option. Not much value in a JV for existing SH IMHO.
Hey guys you may be right and it would lead to greater returns in the longer term if the can fund it.
Just can’t see it myself …. All the signs tell me it’s a takeover
Good morning Copperpot, that is what I think they are looking at, it accords with the statement that we are going to look at faster extraction in the early years.
With regards my 09.36 post......with open pit first!