Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
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Quadster, the two (concise and accurate) are not mutually exclusive. In fact, I would go so far as to say that they are often complementary. Concise arguments are often the child of a clear mind.
Sorry Miagi for the continuous essays, but being accurate, is more important than concise.
It's accuracy we should be after, anyone can be concise, but it only leads to misinterpretation .
Hi addicknt, I agree much has changed over the years.
The changes make a bid more unlikely.
The book is more diverse than ever.
The proving up of Alpala has exceeded expectations, and I believe will continue to exceed future expectations.
We have engaged Citi for a defence strategy.
We are spreading the word, webinars and RNS's more frequent.
Recently we are drilling other tenements. Covid has set us back.
But I continue to listen to what has been said, as NM and the band have been consistent, which means I have been consistent, as I believe what they are saying.
So when you say the story has changed, but I haven't changed my opinion, you are standing the argument on it's head.
It's you addicknt, that hasn't changed your opinion. As they production story is backed by even more evidence.
You said the FN deal would never be signed, as it was a ploy to get BHP, to talk to NM to agree a price. It wasn't it was signed.
You believed that this was to big for Solgold to finance. Let's see if we can raise the finance.
You believed we couldn't build and go to construction. I found out BHP don't construct their own mines, they use Civil engineering firms. Solgold will do the same.
Yes the story has changed, more in the favour of production, but your opinion hasn't.
Maybe you should reassess the facts, and not the speculation on this chatroom.
All the best.
Q, so the preparation NM has made for a defence and the vast cost involved, hasn't in any way altered your opinion about the question of probability?
It's totally unsustainable for a company to give an rns after every 250m drill. I complained on the last RNS hope 2 250m, that I thought it too soon, I would have prefered one at 500m instead. But that's up to solg, now I would support one at original hole depth 750m to talk about findings and whether they 're drilling on...this will probably be monday?
Apart from this next week is the start of the drill results apart from portrait visuals for me!
One of the things I like about Addicknt's posts is that they are more often than not, concise. And yet nothing is lost! Trawling through repetitious essays is hard work.
Good morning addicknt, I will paste in the statement you just made, I thought we had gone over this, however I will remind you.
I'm sorry, but your constant use of the argument 'it hasn't happened', is astonishingly daft - there is no other expression which does it justice.
I have never said this, you have inferred this and said this now a number of times. ( if you think it's daft, then stop saying it )
It's silly.
What I have said is that the evidence we have on the argument of probability and listening to what NM says ( the facts )
State that this is going to production.
I have always said that this could be sold, but not cheaply, for all the reasons I have explained.
Hence the probability is no one will bid for Solgold, as not only it hasn't happened, but nothing has changed on the book, as no one is buying other people's holdings.
If that starts to happen, then depending on who holds what, I will reassess the situation, as this may change the balance of probability in favour of Solgold being sold.
However, I prefer to listen to what is being said by NM and the representatives of Solgold, and not twist what is being said to be in line with my own agenda, as I don't have one.
I have an investment strategy, and this is proceeding nicely.
Hopefully we won't hear you make this statement again.
All the best.
Red ,agree this is huge ,as they prove up more the asset value is increasing substantially imho pitty the share price I reflecting it atm but it will imho eventually nm is indeed a good business man with a proven track record as an explorer
Q, "I have been invested for seven years...etc". So, in your opinion nothing has changed in that period? Of course it has. The whole story has changed beyond recognition and with it, the possible outcomes. And yet your thinking hasn't. Hmm.
Can't disagree with your rational post dartfrog except in one respect...
Nick has never ruled out a takeover bid, otherwise why did he appoint Citi, specifically for 'bid defense' (US spelling...)
He has, however, in various ways, said or implied that it would take a high price for it to happen...
That can't be bad for any of us...
Look at the growing serious discussion among authoritative commentators about, inter alia:
Massive prospective copper shortages in the future with the EV boom (not to mention a raft of green infrastructure projects soon to come down the pipe from Western Governments to rebuild economies post COVID...)
No new Tier 1 copper finds outside Alpala (so far)
Major miners' depleting resources, not only in copper but especially in gold...9 years total life left in existing mines...
Growing assumptions of increased M&A activity in the mining space, together with 'buybacks' e.g. HGM and KAZ
Major miners' declared strategies to replenish declining resources, primarily through exploration or acquisition
Rationalisation of existing portfolios to move away from 'dirty' commodities, especially coal and oil, with an increasing focus on copper, nickel, lithium, rare minerals, together with gold and silver...
A raft of private and corporate monies stimulated by global Quantitative Easing, looking for a long term home, at historically low interest rates (indeed penal rates, with negative real and actual rates penalising the holding of cash and bonds)
And a concerted need by the developed economies to resolve the massive debt problems caused by post 2008 QE and COVID financing, i.e. 'fiat money' which either needs to be reset (quasi gold standard) or inflated away. Either of these WILL precipitate a gold/silver boom...
So...there is an undoubted need for much more copper that isn't going away...the US equity and debt markets are 'bubbles' waiting to explode, just like the tech bubble in 2000 and sub prime in 2006...gold (and inevitably silver) will boom (otherwise why have JPM ($900m fine) and several leading banks (see today's news), spent so much money, time and energy manipulating the precious metals markets for so many years...
And there is one company perfectly placed for this perfect storm...even in Alpala alone, we have prospectively among the world's biggest silver, gold and copper mines...
And Porvenir and Rio may be even bigger...!!!
Keep the faith...its only a matter of time...
AIMO as usual...
No point in holding all the cards if you don’t have the money to lay down to win it, it takes more than a smile to win at poker
Imo
Good morning Bubble, DartFrog beat me to it.
He neatly sums up the bid scenario.
This can be defended. Because no one on a very diverse book, is going to say let's sell our shares cheap. Their share of Solgold is an appreciating asset. The diverse book makes this almost impossible to bid for. As they would have to obtain the shares of many parties to be successful. No one is going to sell cheap.
A bid would have happened after the PEA, if we were going to get one. The let's sell brigade, all said this. Now they are saying, the majors will buy after the PFS, as they want to pay for a known quantity. When this doesn't happen, I will predict it will be the DFS. It goes on and on
I have been invested for 7 years in this share now, and every week, someone has predicted an imminent sale.
All the best.
Dartfrog,yes nm holds all the cards here
The DFS won't be available until the end of next year, so yes, I stand by my opinion.
So, answer my question - are BHP going to be content with 13% of what is one of the most important discoveries in the mining world?
I'm sorry, but your constant use of the argument 'it hasn't happened', is astonishingly daft - there is no other expression which does it justice.
Quady,morning ,agree with the fact that we havent seen any news regards any offers,but am still of the opinion that we will be taken over at some point ,the demand for rare commodities as big as solg have and are continuing to prove up far outweighs the go it alone stratergy,I know nm has tied up a few deals with fn but there's big conglomerates with big pockets becoming diversified and are desperate to get hold of assets like solg have imho ,just my opinion ofcoarse ..
NCM are not likely to sell their 13% to BHP or anyone else. BHP are not likely to sell their 13% to NCM or anyone else. NCM and BHP are not friends; they are arch rivals! BHP have pending options, but they only amount to about 1%. CGP will sell to the highest bidder. NM holds or controls about 20%. BHP and NM and other potential buyers may pick up shares in the market, but I would doubt that would be a great number. Depending on the price, I would doubt if more than 20% of PIs, etc would accept a BHP or NCM offer, most will follow NM, i.e. if an offer is recommended by the board. All in all, I cannot see how a bid will succeed. Obviously it would all depend on the price on offer, but an offer price to be successful will have to be unaffordably high to be acceptable to NM and the majority of shareholders. To me NM has most of the cards.
Frog
There's no pleasing some people.
Good morning addicknt, hope you are well.
Let's look at the facts.
Newcrest could have bid any time, they haven't.
BHP, could have agreed a deal, with NM, while in standstill, they haven't.
Anyone can bid for CGP, they haven't.
I agree, both Newcrest and BHP, would like a bigger share, they just have to pay up. They haven't.
I am ignoring none of the facts addicknt.
I once said, onwards to the DFS, end of next year.
I remember you replying, that we won't get a DFS, as it will be sold by the end of this year.
Do you still believe that addicknt.
All the best.
This post from Mirabeau (who I suspect is also on here...) eloquently sums up the present situation...
Nick isn't stupid, but he's lost control of the PI engagement again...let's hop[e its a temporary hiatus until markets are less weak and we get hit with a Tsunami of news that the MMs cannot withstand...
"The flow of monies coming into SOLG compared to Greatland is beyond pitiful. In fact it's pathetic . No matter how many presentations SOLG transact there is at present zero investor excitement regarding what we have
I'm not sure what type of news event will trigger a change in how SOLG is perceived by the market
Frustrating and indeed frustrated"
AIMO as usual...
As ever, Q, your analysis completely ignores the fact of both BHP and NCMs involvement and your equally naive assumption that they will be happy with their respective 13% shareholdings.
Come on, admit it - they aren't just going to sit there and do nothing, are they?
the tax issue regarding a possible sale of Cascabel is pivotal imho. If the tax is punitive it would make little sense to sell it. The easier route to monetisation would be sell the entire company to the highest bidder to avoid such taxes each time the rights to a tenement are sold.....
Quite right AKGold, those are additional facts, as we have directly observed NM saying these.
Once would be enough, but he has said these things on more than one occasion.
Let's just enjoy the ride.
There will be exit points, I suspect however, that when we reach 50 pence a share, all those that said they will take it, won't.
Why not? Because of greed, and missing out. As once we achieve 50 pence, it will be because of news. People will then say, why doesn't NM sell, as we could get a pound. Same story, same arguments, also same misunderstanding of the direction of Solgold, and how markets work.
Add few more -
Investors will have multiple exit points
We may not be able to sell Cascable alone due to Tax issue/penalty - not sure what impact it will have
Wherever possible will dilute the shares at cheap
We are the largest landholders in Ecuador
We have a possibility of finding at least 1-2 another Tier 1 finds from the 13 prospective targets
Morning Quady...yep mate, I agree with your last post wholeheartedly.
Gregory, I'm looking forward to the PFS whenever it arrives. I'm not holding my breath on it being anytime soon. The longer the better for me, good RNS's can easily get lost in the current climate. Also the delay will buy more drill time. I have said a few times Im not expecting any offers from majors this year, if indeed ever. I know Quady and a few others may noy agree, but I think we will hear next year that a J/V with BHP has been agreed. Sorry for the rushex reply Gregory but Im just heading out.
ps...... hope your good Quady.
Adios guys.
Good morning Copperpot, you are correct.
People fail to listen to what NM says, and post what they thought he meant.
This is what my posts are mostly about.
Listen to what NM says, as they are the facts.
As a fact is an observation made directly or indirectly. Facts are used to build an evidential case.
So what has been said.
We are not venturing into JV's.
We are only selling at full value, or near full value.
We have the opportunity to become the BHP of Ecuador.
We have the ability to go to production, as we can raise the money independently, and do not require help on this.
We have the expertise, and can buy in the engineering expertise, to construct and bring Alpala to production.