London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
As somebody who has been here for as long as many of you (7 years so far), I am no less frustrated.
But then I look at the fact that my 625k shares have cost me c£70k and only 18 months ago they would have cost £250k...
And what's changed?
Precious little...we still have the same world class resource...one of the biggest copper/gold prospects on the planet...at a time when Gold is less than 5% below its all time high (and $300 above the PFS assumption) and copper is also above the PFS assumption and looking to push forward at last...
Yes there have been wasted years, especially while there was antagonism between SOLG (NM) and BHP, NCM and CGP...three of our biggest shareholders...
Now, after the debacle of hiring a dunce and losing some good people who talked commonsense (Ingo and Ayten), we have Scott, who was in at the beginning with Guyana Goldfields and seems to have knocked some commonsense into the economics.
But we also have CGP shareholders who, having thrown their lot in, have a huge vested interest.
We have two investors with designs on the company (BHP originally; Jiangxi recently); 20 interested parties in the data room and at least five that have done in depth site visits.
The resource isn't going to go away.
The global demand for copper will soar.
Gold will plough on to record heights, and...
Sooner rather than later, one of the prospective predators will break cover and either launch a 'knockout' bid or start a bidding war a la Noront.
In the meantime it becomes increasingly tiresome, but I've never felt more that resolution is coming in the next six months.
Nobody knows how it will play out...but...
We can't take it to production because there is no appetite anywhere in the world to lend $2.5 billion to a Junior Miner valued at £271 million...
And a joint venture seems remote because why would somebody want only half the cake when they can have the lot for a few months cashflow for a major...
And in any case, surely a J/V proposal would also prompt a bid from one of the 20 interested parties
So...either Cascabel will be sold (unlikely, because that would probably also prompt a bid for the whole ball of wax) or...sooner or later a takeover will happen and we can all go back to whatever we were doing 7 years ago, rather than wasting man years on here...
Cheers one and all...
Ahh.. the barely concealed humblebrag
Sorry red, have you listened to what Scott has said for the last 9 months?
we dont need 2.5b to develop it... we need 1b to start.... and that can be arranged in their sleep in the form of streams, royalties and debt.
Plenty has changed... for starters, you have close to 3billion shares in issue comparedf to circa 2billion a few years back. For balance, we have gained 15% extra of a Tier1 asset, so now have 100%. Is or was that 15% extra worth the additional 800million+ in shares? We'll only know that answer when they deliver a monetisation event. But considering the market prefers to value SOLG on an almost 90% discount basis or credits asset worth to tune of just 10%... we are letf suffering from acquiring that 15% in the meantime... we have to literally carry it at 10% value even though we've paid 100% for it and some might say even more than that.
The CGP boys want a monetisation event... they want an exit. A JV deal or farm in etc is not likely to deliver that. If the sp spiked to 45p on BHP taking a 65% stake (not going happen by the way) then Maxit and co can't sell into that spike. The volume is not there. What they can do is agree to sell their stake to BHP just like they did in 2018 and leave the rest of us to fight it out in the open market.
That's also not likely to work with Mather, Tenstar, Rosseau and so on. They all need exits too.
The likes of BHP know exactly what Bob and co want. They know the alternatives to an all out sale are very limited and not pleasing to Bob and co.
I think their view near term is to get a low ball deal done with some smaller outfit based on a $1bln capex. So it's plausible. So could be Endeavour Mining etc... fairly small biz compared to BHP.. they buy SOLG for 30p... then go about building it or farming bits out thereafter. Danger is... BHP just sits on hands and does not counter offer... then just starts talks with Endeavour Mining about farm in's or JV's.
So only way to really get BHP to make a bid is to find someone capable of taking ENSA through all phases but in a gradual manner. Someone like the Chinese. Mirror the Mirador plans. Go down that route and highly unlikely BHP will be getting a look in. So they either walk away or they push the bidding for SOLG higher into the 40's and 50's.
There is no other scenario imho. It's all about delivering an agreement that forces BHP's or other super majors that are watching SOLG out from the shadows and into the bidding arena. Until the first domino drops... the market will value SOLG at major discount. 10% looks harsh to e and would have though 25% to 30% minimum would be fairer based on stage of project. So 21/22p is the range that carries some respect. 9p or 10p range is just disrespectful and typical of this casino market these days.
Read my own post...bought another 120k...
Poor red ramper, struggling with his last T20 to make any cash so e[getting desperate with a mother T20.
I suspect most on here will be happy to see the red ramper come unstuck……
Odious individual, his latest boast on the other side is he was a brain surgeon many years ago, more likely a hospital porter…….
Morning Red
Did you see the Silver Wheaton Lumina $300m gold streaming deal on cangrejos in southern ecuador ??
It’s 11m Oz ffs …… what we got 85m ??
You’ve often said that despite the huge amount of copper we have the gold could be key here .
Pro mining president/ Ecuador becoming a viable place to do business …… Franco won’t want to be playing catch up.
We know the staged approach will bring a greatly reduced CAPEX ……. What would a fully funded proposal from one of them do for our share price…… and also what reaction could it draw from any potential bidders ??
Opportunity knocks …..
Yipee dbw.
Padmaster was right.
"Here we go here we go here we go.
How many years now have you and him been saying
Opportunity knocks.
I don't know who sounds the most desperate. You, him, padmaster or fort.
It's quit sad really
I forgot redknight in the desperation stakes
You can’t even remember your own Bull 💩
redknight1
Posted in: SOLG
Posts: 7,788
Price: 8.93
No Opinion
RE: Anyone that has funds will make significant sums from here26 Oct 2023 10:24
Joint 1 million at an average of 11...
Then today having boasted about a couple of T20s in the intervening period of 5 days you write this
redknight1
Posts: 7,788
Price: 9.03
No Opinion
Whats changed...?Today 09:23
As somebody who has been here for as long as many of you (7 years so far), I am no less frustrated.
But then I look at the fact that my 625k shares have cost me c£70k and only 18 months ago they would have cost £250k...
So you had a million 5 days ago, bought 220k on t trades and now have 625k, everyone new maths wasn’t your strongest suit but even that is pretty poor……
Odious character
Good find DBW, they’re pitching in $300bn to fully fund construction in return for 6.6% of the 11m Oz gold
Even a reduced capex solgold has many multiples of that and if they got a deal of similar magnitude we’d be keeping 90% of the metal
No way a bidder holds off and let’s that get passed
*$300m sorry
Still seething at HSBC net interest profits and billions are on my mind!
Exactly 1984 ….. win/win but my guess is there’s no way any potential bidders will let it fly …… my money still on the Chinese
Less 18-22% spot price production payment
Even still…there would be a lot left as a free hit to sell on
55 year + free hit in our case
That is such a clever and highly relevant point DBW...
For starters I referenced the fact that gold is already c$300 above the PFS assumptions. That alone adds $2.8 billion to the bottom line...
Based on your numbers, we could fund the whole of Cascabel for an equivalent deal with Wheaton or for that matter Franco Nevada...
I personally would have no quibble with an equivalent 6.6% deal and just imagine what it would do to the SP...
Meanwhile the currnet uplift of the gold price of $2.8 billion/3.1 billion is c90p/share by my simple maths...
You can be sure that any hint of a gold streaming deal would flush out the would be bidders, just as it royally p***ed off BHP and NCM when we did the first FNV deal...
How did we all miss this Lumina deal and it adds fire to the question why the SP isn't MUCH MUCH higher...?
Initial capex low $1bns? Then roll profit into developing the rest
Wheaton is in the riskier end of Ecuador too where all the carry on is
I think you'll find its $300m 1984...
https://www.mining-technology.com/news/lumina-wheaton-gold-streaming-ecuador-mine/?cf-view
DBW,
A good sensible post, nice to see some sense coming back to the board.
Gold and silver is going up, it’s going up because the U.S cannot afford its debt, the FED just dumped a load of treasury bonds.
Japan is also getting ready to dump bonds, time is running out for the US, all down to their greed, not the American people who will suffer but the rich who can just walk away with their riches, pretty sickening.
So gold is the best thing with silver, as you pointed out, it’s a game changer here
Atb
Cheers Mathers
Cascabel jurisdiction way safer too as 1984 was alluding to.
A streaming based funding package here could truly blow the lid off here …… all hypothetical at this stage though
DBW,
You say hypothetically, but that’s how the market works, foresight is their best tool.
Atb
Forgot to add link
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=svMjyCgYZNI
Atb
True …… win/win …. Fully funded would massively rerate GG’s stock ( probably any deal dependant on licenses/ permits/ IPA etc) but would almost certainly flush out any potential bidders .
26th October Redknight you told us you had 1 million at 11p , now 675,000?
His wife has the rest of them, obviously :)